In past posts and comments, I have suggested that this blog better represents gay Republicans than does Log Cabin. To defend this claim, I pointed out that while both Bruce and I voted for President Bush last fall just as did a supermajority of gay Republicans. And like most gay Republicans, despite occasional disagreements with the president, we generally support him. In contrast not only did Log Cabin refuse to endorse the president, but its president Patrick Guerriero attacked him just three weeks before the election. After the election, Patrick even refused to indicate who he voted for. He has barely uttered a word of praise since.
I have claimed that perhaps more than 90% of gay Republicans voted for the President last fall based on exit polling which showed that 23% of gay people voted for the president last fall. Given that polls showed that 25% of gay people voted for Bush in 2000, I figured that 92% of gay Republicans picked the president again.
As some of my critics have noted in the comments, that since not all gay Republicans supported W in the 2000 election, I was wrong about that 90% figure (for 2004). So, I did a few google searches to see if I could find the exact figure, but have so far been unable to find a single poll showing how gay Republicans voted in past presidential elections.
Without such a poll, we’ll have to look at the numbers that we have so as best to extrapolate the gay Republican vote in 2004. Given there were no indications of any major defections from the GOP in 2000 (when Log Cabin endorsed Bush), we’ll assume that that year, the president got the same percentage of the gay Republican vote as he did of the Republican vote. The lowest percentage I could find for the Bush’s share of the Republican vote in 2000 was 91.
Now, some of our critics cite an exil poll showing that the president won just 17% of the gay vote in 2004. If we average the two exit polls numbers (17 & 23), we get 20. For now, we’ll go with this average (even as I believe the higher exit-poll number is more accurate). 20 is 80% of 25 (the president’s 2000 share of the gay vote). If we assume that the president lost the same number of votes from gay Republicans as he did from gay Independents and Democrats, he would have won 72.8% of the gay Republican vote (80% x 91%). (Given that more Republicans would have stayed with their party’s man than non-Republicans, this likely underepresents the number of Republcans who voted for W in 2004. Lacking any better numbers (for now), we’ll go with this.)
Thus, in last fall’s presidential election, roughly three out of four gay Republican joined your humble bloggers in voting for the president while slightly more than one in four went with Log Cabin. (And this using a method which is more likely to underrepresent the president’s share of the gay GOP vote.) Seems we better represent gay Republicans than does Log Cabin.