A week or so ago, I met a man, who, not knowing I was a Republican, dropped a line in a discussion about movies to note how delighted he was that only two-thirds of Americans approved of he president’s performance. He suggested that those who disapproved of the president shared his disstaste for the man. Like many Bush-haters, he seemed convinced that the president’s low approval numbers will translate into a huge Democratic wave this fall. And a sign that, after five years of W, Americans are becoming increasingly liberal.
I did not fully understand the president’s low numbers until I left the blue island of the Hollywood area and returned to red areas of my home state last month. Two of my brothers, each of whom has contributed generously to the president and the GOP (and both having their pictures with the president displayed prominently in their homes and offices), were furious at him for failing to hold the line on spending.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC indicates they’re not alone. Other Americans want the federal government to hold the line on spending. “Asked to choose which should be its top priority, a stunning 39% selected “prohibiting Members of Congress from directing federal funds to specific projects benefiting only certain constituents”–i.e., the pork-barrel spending at the heart of the Congressional earmark process.“
Polls show the president’s support is slipping among his base. According to the latest Gallup survey, “52% of conservatives and 68% of Republicans approved of the job he is doing. Both are record lows among those groups.” It’s not just spending. Over at “Powerline, John Hinderaker tells the president he should “go on national television and say you were wrong, and you’ve changed your mind. About immigration.”
While the Democrats — and the left — may be delighting in the president’s sinking poll numbers, the numbers do not suggest Americans are becoming any less conservative. It’s one of the reasons I don’t expect this fall’s election to resemble 1994. But, then again, Republicans have been known to snatch defeat from the jaws of decline.
The thing is that in a lot of the polls, is that they only show the president’s sinking poll numbers and not the other Republican and Democrat numbers. The Dems are still very low in their approval numbers and have dropped porportionally from where they were before. They still are about 10-20% behind the president and the Republican party.
There’s also the “throw the bums out…except mine” meme that repeats election-cycle after election-cycle. (Damn, where’s term-limits when you really need them?) While the electorate’s mad at Congress, are they willing to turn-out their own, local congressman who delivers the pork for their roads, bridges or pet social-engineering programs? The same congressman who panders to their pro-choice or pro-life prejudices each primary-Spring hugging a favored NEA union president or fundementalist preacher while strong-arming the opposition-party county-committee to not ‘rock the boat’ by annointing any challenger who might threaten their seniority in the Appropriation Committee.
Ninety-four’s electoral changes reflected a political sea-change, not just a shift in House Speakers. This year enough seats may shift to install Pelosi as Speaker, but it will not be a Revolution like ’94. While the Republicans are politically ‘in-the-doghouse’ with many of their own base, the Democrats lack the leadership and principled campaign agenda of Guingrich’s ’94 sea-change. This will be just more fleas shifting dog-to-dog, again….not a thorough de-lousing of the House.
Opposition to a big-spending, big government has probably been the big-tent issue for the Republicans for the last 30 years or so. There was enough agreement on that between the the Christian right, the libertarians, and the country-club set to hold the party together. And that’s why Congress’s actions feel like such a betrayal, and why the base is so angry. We want to say, “We thought we elected Republicans.”
And then issues like immigration come along and just frustrate everyone even more.
If the Democrats win this fall, it will be because the GOP stays home in disgust.
#0
Two of my brothers….were furious at him for failing to hold the line on spending
A Wall Street Journal/NBC indicates they’re not alone. Other Americans want the federal government to hold the line on spending.
While I’m not a big fan of government spending, you should tell your brothers, and the rest of America, that the deficit still is still shrinking! (for the official numbers see here) This is happening at the same time we are spending billions of dollars in Iraq, New Orleans, Medicare Part D and on all of that pork.
I’m amazed that this is not news. Your liberal critics here constantly boast about the “Clinton era” surpluses and yet have no idea why they happened but the conservative critics still fail to realize that, yes, as a rich country, we can afford to spend that money and still have a shrinking deficit.
It’s called an expanding economy.
It’s nice to know that the majority of the American public shares my dislike of Bush, for whatever reason.
The question that should be on everyone’s mind is if people are mad enough to a) actually vote Democrats into office or b) actually not vote, which might have the same effect.
I think what the campaign rhetoric of the summer will be is to simply point out that, in both scenarios, what you end up with is worse.
I’ve noticed the Democratic Party shills like Andrew Sullivan warming up their rhetoric about how a “divided Congress” is somehow inherently better.
Unfortunately, what they forget is that many of the things they bitch about the most, i.e. No Child Left Behind and Medicare Part D, were things supported and passed with the support of Democrats, often OVER large numbers of Republicans.
All that voting Republicans out in that situation would do is to create a situation similar to removing speed bumps from a street.
If Sullivan and his ilk truly wished to cut spending, they would vote and promote more fiscally-conservative Republicans. Unfortunately, many of them, i.e. Tom Coburn, are also socially-conservative.
I’m involved in campaigns in four “red” states and come in contact with a lot of groups of Republican voters, many of them quite unhappy. Earlier this year, the number one bitch was spending by President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress. In recent weeks, illegal immigration and what pretty much amounts to an “open border” are at the top of the list and deficit spending has taken a back seat to those concerns.
You might be interested to know, Dan, that a lot of Republicans are growing frustrated over Iraq. And more and more Republicans I run into are “embarrassed” by Duke Cunningham, Tom DeLay, Bob Ney, Conrad Burns, et al, and what these grassroots Republicans simply call “scandals”.
BTW, John in IL, commenting at #4, the deficit isn’t shrinking; it’s just coming in less than previously estimated. And I’ve seen information showing that the accrual deficit is running about $750 billion a year, or about double the “deficit” politicians refer to.
Trace, I too am embarrassed by such scandals. Bruce said as much in his post on Cunningham. Given MSM reports, I can understand their frustration on Iraq. Let us hope that with a new press secretary, the president can better get out the news of our successes there.
That said, your comment doesn’t take issue with the thesis of my post, indeed, in some ways, confirms it, by bringing in other issues driving the president’s numbers down.
BTW, John in IL, commenting at #4, the deficit isn’t shrinking; it’s just coming in less than previously estimated.
No, it really is shrinking. The FY 2005 deficit was 318 billion dollars. This year’s actual deficit is predicted to be less than that. If you compare the last twelve months of receipts to outlays to the previous twelve months you will see this even more clearly (see link from the Treasury Dept in #4).
As a percentage of GDP, it seems even smaller.
I almost want to say let the Dems fuck it up for two years and the country will be ready..but I’m not ready to give up:
I can’t say it better than the guys at Powerline:
The President hasn’t asked for my advice, but here it is anyway.
You know how the Democrats are always after you to admit that you made a mistake? You’ve wisely ignored them; they don’t have your interests at heart, and the policies they’re talking about weren’t mistakes. The time has come, though, to go on national television and say you were wrong, and you’ve changed your mind. About immigration.
Give a major speech in prime time. Say that you still think that a long-term solution to the immigration issue should include a guest worker program. Acknowledge, however, that many Americans disagree and there is currently no consensus on a long-range policy. Say that, more fundamentally, you’re now convinced that our first priority has to be getting control over our borders. Until we control our borders, and know who is coming and going, any immigration policy we may announce will be meaningless anyway.
So, discussion about long-term approaches to immigration will continue. But in the meantime, your priority will be securing the borders and enforcing the laws currently on the books. Which means that the crackdown on employers of illegals will be expanded. Announce some specific measures to begin securing the Mexican border, preferably including some kind of fence.
This simple act will cause your approval ratings to begin rebounding, re-energize Republicans, and assure that the party keeps its Congressional majorities in November. If you really want to get the conservative base back in your corner, go and meet with the Minutemen–on camera–and tell them you appreciate what they’re doing.
That’s step one. Here’s step two. It was announced this morning that Republicans in the House and Senate have agreed to extend the capital gains cut for another two years. You think this is sound public policy because it will be good for the economy. You’re right, but no one cares. The economy has been terrific for years; how much good has it done you or the Republican Party? That’s right. Little or none.
You need to couple this tax cut with spending cuts. Tax cuts unaccompanied by spending restraint are rightly viewed with cynicism by both conservatives and liberals. Focus on earmarks; even the liberals don’t try to defend them. Threaten to veto any spending bill that contains a single earmark. Then do it. If that creates a temporary problem with the appropriations process, talk about the need for a line-item veto. Not only will an all-out attack on earmarks warm the hearts of the Republican faithful, it will be broadly supported across the political spectrum.
If you do these two things, you will reinvogorate your administration. You will demonstrate that as President, you are still the nation’s most powerful political figure. You will regain the trust and enthusiastic support of the Republican Party. And you will assure that, with continuing Republican control of Congress, the remainder of your administration will be devoted to productive work on behalf of the American people, not defending yourself against politically-motivated “investigations” and impeachment proceedings.
I think this is where the polls don’t tell the whole story.
If a pollster called me, and I wanted to take the time to answer, I would likely respond with dissaproval of some sort, especially of congress, and its current belief that money grows on trees. But this dissaproval does not equal me voting for a democrat come fall (although I would really like to vote out my congressman who was a believer in the source of money being a money tree, before it got popular-I just don’t have any realistic options to vote against him-perhaps the libertarian candidate come November, but the last libertarian candidate was a little to freaky for me to give him my vote).
Why is it that political pundits and the press are transfixed by polls? Why is it that the Left and Osama bin Laden want low poll numbers? Why is it that, like the weather, we continue to get bad intelligence from the polls and proof that their power of predicting is flawed but we still “believe” the polls as truth or fact?
If this President were like former Prez Clinton –who ruled by polls– I could see it would matter; how goes the polls, so goes the Prez and policy.
But, he isn’t; Bush’s priority is more about doing what’s right rather than popular –and his Administration leaders hold that view, too.
Senators and Representatives are inclined to try to do what’s popular and right –but they’ll take popular and wrong in a flash.
I still like the notion that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. A solid GOTV effort trumps the polls anyday in my book.
#8: “I too am embarrassed by such scandals.”
Embarrassed? Shouldn’t you be outraged? After all, it was your tax dollars being used to actually BRIBE the Dukestir. Embarrassed implies that you just wish something hadn’t been exposed. Would you just be “embarrassed” if it had been a corrupt Dem who went to jail for bribery?
BTW, it looks like another California Repub, Jerry Lewis who chairs the House Appropriations Committee is getting dragged into the Cunningham scandal. http://tinyurl.com/r4eol
Still just “embarrassed” or is there any glimmer of outrage yet?
I don’t see too many Americans wanting to look at Nancy Pelosi as Speaker and only a few more would want to see Harry Reid as Majority Leader in the Senate. A Senate where Kennedy and Shumer are setting the tone is just to depressing to permit. The fixation is Bush so I don’t see even a Dem victory in both houses leading to a sane Democrat Party. I’m convinced Durbin still distrusts and despises our armed forces and I’m certain that the “brilliant” Obama will turn into Rangel once he is free to do so.
Yes, I addressed the statistical illiteracy of the poll addicts here.
Vince TN writes: “…I’m certain that the “brilliant” Obama will turn into Rangel once he is free to do so.”
OK, it’s time to talk about the bad luck and terrible omen that giving voice to such a horrible concept can portend for society. It’s like those guys in the MSM who keep saying, “Well, it’s lucky that we’ve avoided another 9/11 up to now -but it’ll happen one day again.”
Vince, sometimes we need to NOT say or write certain things like that just because our brains will explode if we have to contemplate it.
Another Charlie Rangel in this world; fresher, younger, living longer? Oy. You are tempting the gods… please stop it.
They are part of the same caucus.