It would be great to start this post with a dramatic number, like $50,000,000 or whatnot. Far be it from me, of course I’d not be the first to make an internet post without having the facts straight. Fact is, however, I don’t know how much has been raised by the myriad anti-MPA organizations popping up all over the country these days.
What I do know, though, is that this amendment has about as good a chance of passing as I do scoring
Tom Cruise Brad Pitt. The kerfuffle over this whole thing has done more to demonstrate the lack of understanding of Article V of the Constitution than it has to demonstrate who’s evil and who wants to take our “rights” away.
Those hyperventilating over the threat of an amendment to the Constitution defining marriage (as recognized by the government) as between one man and one woman either think the gay community is a bottomless pit of cash or stupid. From what I’ve seen, I’m not sure they’re wrong either way. Let’s run some numbers (those I do know), shall we?
Two-thirds of the Senate is 67 votes. The last time the Senate took up this issue, the eeevil Republicans running the show couldn’t even muster 60 for cloture. Hell, they didn’t even get a simple majority, the vote was 48 yea, 50 nay (The paragons of gay rights, Kerry and Edwards, were busy campaigning…at least Clinton ran home to execute a retarded guy during his election.) Point is: The Senate ain’t gonna pass this thing, no matter how much the 30%-approval-rating-so-I’ve-got-tons-of-political-weight-to-throw-around W hounds them to do so.
Okay then, step 2: The House. Two-thirds (plus 1) of 435 is 290. How often does the House pass legislation with that sort of lop-sided majority? Actually, more often than I thought. The House passes stuff with high margins like that all the time. Some examples are: “Recognizing the Historical Significance of Juneteenth Independence Day, and Expressing the Sense of Congress That History Should Be Regarded As a Means for Understanding the Past and Solving the Challenges of the Future” and “Expressing the Condolences and Deepest Sympathies of the Congress in the Aftermath of the Recent School Shooting at Red Lake High School in Red Lake, Minnesota“. Now, in all fairness, all high-margin votes aren’t as trivial as these, but c’mon, gang…these folks can hardly pass a budget. You think they’re going to change the Constitution? Please.
So if we’re living in the world where these two things happen, it’s on to the states, where a three-quarter affirmation (that’s 38 states) is needed. That means 13 can scuttle the effort. Shall we? Okay, California, New York, Vermont (of course), Massachusetts, Maryland, and Hawaii. Never happen here. That leaves 7 more to find: How about Maine, Oregon, Washington, Connecticut, New Jersey, Michigan and Delaware. This doesn’t even include blue stelwarts such as Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin, and three other Kerry-Edwards states. If you’ve made it this far and think there’s actually a danger this’d pass, shouldn’t you be at a Michael Moore opening?
Now, I’m totally against this Amendment, and both my Senators are aware of that. I encourage all who read this to contact their representation and voice opposition.
I am curious, though…with the odds so stacked against this effort, why do we need so much money to oppose it? Kind of makes you wonder what they’re going to do with your donations after this effort dies. At least it should make you wonder.