With 68 percent of Americans not yet focused at all on the November mid-term Congressional elections, it is a fair to say that the Chattering Class is making mountains of molehills in their undaunting and definitive predictions of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. (**takes a shot of bourbon after having to type that**)
After all, we’ve been through this drill before. Ever since the mid-term elections of 1996, the Democrats and their comrades in the MSM have been assuring their supporters they will “Take Back The House” this year. No, THIS year. No, THIS YEAR. Really, this year.
The Washington Times has a further look at the latest polling data and puts some context behind it all.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll of 1,001 Americans, including 813 registered voters, conducted last week found that 71 percent think the country is on the wrong track, compared with only 26 percent who say it’s going in the right direction.
This year’s primary results, where three congressional incumbents were dumped by the voters, “combined with Congress’s abysmal job-approval ratings and extremely high ‘wrong-track’ numbers — indicate a very volatile, turbulent election year, the kind that incumbents hate for good reason,” election forecaster Charlie Cook writes in the National Journal.
But an earlier poll of 1,047 Americans conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation from Aug. 2 to 3 drew a dramatically different response when it asked people, “How well are things going in the country today?”
A combined 55 percent said things were going “fairly well” (47 percent) or “very well” (8 percent), compared with those who said “pretty badly” (29 percent) or “very badly” (15 percent).
Keating Holland, CNN’s polling director, said the question is fundamentally different from the right track/wrong track that other pollsters ask, but he acknowledged that “it is a measurement of how well Americans think things are going in the country today.”
(GP Polling Editorial Note: Aug. 2nd and 3rd are weeknights…. traditionally a better time to fairly sample Republicans who are known not to be home on Friday nights and weekends when polling is done then.)
I would simply warn those popping their champagne bottles over an assured Democratic victory to keep it on ice, and your bravado in check, until Americans actually vote. Remember, in the United States of America actual votes that are cast count — exit polls do not count.
UPDATE (from GPW): Over at Wizbang, Alexander McClure notes that on “the generic congressional ballot between Republicans and Democrats, the margin is now only 2 points.” In the last poll, the Democrats led by 11 points. Looks like things are looking up for the Grand Old Party.