I’ve been holding off on this posting since Labor Day. I didn’t want to get ahead of the curve. But I also couldn’t help remembering all summer that the predictions of the Dems’ “landslide” (aka 1994) were quite premature and very reminiscent of similar talk in the summer of 2002 and the summer of 2004.
You may recall those elections produced historic wins for a sitting President’s party, including the first President to garner over 50% of the vote since 1998. (Bill Clinton isn’t on that list).
But the evidence has grown to the point that it is hard for any rational (i.e. – non-Bush hating Liberal) to avoid it. The Democrats have squandered their best chance to take control of Congress since 1994 and I do believe — as I have felt all summer, actually — that the Republicans will hold both the House and Senate.
The Democrats’ yearlong lead among likely voters has evaporated, strengthening Republican chances of holding majority control in the House, according to the Gallup Poll.
Gallup’s latest survey of voters who say they will go to the polls Nov. 7 showed the contest is a “dead heat” between those who say they will vote Republican (48 percent) and those who say they intend to support Democrats (48 percent). The poll of 1,003 adults was conducted Sept. 15-17.
Democrats continue to maintain an advantage among registered voters; however, pollsters consider likely voters to be a more accurate measurement of the electorate’s preferences. The neck-and-neck estimates suggest the Republicans have the potential to offset the Democrats’ lead “with greater turnout,” Gallup said last week in an analysis of its findings.
“Should that result persist until Election Day, it suggests Republicans would be able to maintain their majority-party status in the House,” Gallup said.
The Congressional preference polls have also historically shown that they skew Democrat, and as long as the GOP is within 4 or 5 that really means they are ahead.
Prospects for the Dems to take control of the US Senate have always been weaker this year than for the House. The chances for a Senate control flip are getting even worse as we get closer to November 7. New Jersey and Maryland are seriously in play and most political observers say it would be near impossible for the Dems to take control of the Senate if they lose either.
To give you an idea of why this is happening and why Republicans will continue to control Congress for many years to come, you only need read a great new book that I’m halfway into: Voting to Kill: How 9/11 Launched The Era of Republican Leadership by Jim Geraghty. I’ll be doing a full-review when I’m finished. It is outstanding so far and a very quick read!