Four separate polls over the weekend are showing a dramatic shift toward the Republicans on the eve of the mid-term elections. RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman summarizes this momentum nicely.
TO: REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP AND INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: KEN MEHLMAN
DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2006
RE: ANOTHER POLL CONFIRMS GOP MOMENTUM
The momentum continues with a fourth poll in recent days showing Republicans gaining ground on Democrats in the closing days of the election. James Carville and Stan Greenberg’s Democracy Corps poll (November 2-5) confirms the findings of three other polls released in the last two days that show Republicans gaining ground in their competitive district survey.
GENERIC BALLOT. Republicans have cut the margin from down 11 (41-52) last week to down only four (45-49) this morning.
PARTY IMAGE. Democracy Corps shows that Republicans have a better image rating than Democrats for the first time since early September. From their last poll, Republicans’ favorable/unfavorable ratio had improved a net-5 points while Democrats dropped a net-4 points.
HANDLING OF ISSUES. A big reason for Republican gains is that trust on key issues has increased over the past few weeks. Built on recent good economic news, Republicans handling on the economy has improved a net-9 points from a week ago. Republicans have also seen significant gains on handling of taxes (+7), Iraq (+7) and national security (+4).
GOP CAMPAIGNS MAKING IMPACT. Another significant reason for Republican gains can be found in the GOP’s 72-hour get out the vote program which is now in full swing. This poll showed that Republicans have made a greater impact than Democrats with TV ads (+6), mailings (+6), and phone calls (+6).
OTHER INDICATORS IMPROVE.
· Direction of the nation, otherwise known as “right track / wrong track”, improved a net-6 points from their previous poll.
· The President’s job approval has increased a net-5 points and Congressional Job Approval increased a net-12 points from their October 25-29 survey.
Reporting from the Charlotte area, I can tell you that the news “on the ground” has been very good for the GOP this week. A Mecklenburg County GOP volunteer told the PatriotMom last week that early voting has been above 2004 levels and “it is all Republican voters.”
The Charlotte Observer noted this trend in a weekend story as well.
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Mecklenburg County, a potentially crucial indicator for Tuesday’s election.
Election Day is still three days away, but more than 18,000 people have already voted.
In the past two major elections in Mecklenburg, the party that dominated early voting controlled the board of county commissioners and chalked up victories in other major races.
Through Wednesday, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 43.2 percent to 39.1 percent, according to an Observer analysis of in-person early voting. The strong Republican turnout bucks national predictions of Democratic success, and could leave power over property taxes, parks and school construction in Republican hands.
The numbers also mark a huge reversal from 2004, when an early-voting surge helped Democrats sweep all three at-large county commissioner seats and deliver Mecklenburg to presidential candidate John Kerry.
Is the Democrat “wave” going the other direction now that the voters are actually deciding?
I have no idea what tomorrow will bring….no one does for sure. But I will be very glad to see that if the actual voting results do not mesh with the Big Media’s Mid-Term Storyline…. that the MSM, Zogby and all of the other talking heads will have egg on their face and James Carville will put another trash can on his head.
**UPDATE** — DSCC head US Sen. Chuck Schumer has now written off the Dems capturing the Senate (hat tip: PatriotPartner)
[Related Story: Charging Rhino has some personal picks from NJ.]
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
Part of the reason Schumer is writing off the Senate is because it appears also as though the Dhimmicrat GOTV effort is not paying off the way it should be. According to “the Blogging Caesar,” it is the equivalent of “what if they held an election and nobody bothered to vote?”
http://www.electionprojection.com/
Great site. It will be updated this evening with the FINAL poll tallies showing the expected Congressional seat breakdown by party.
Regards,
Peter H.
Which means basically that the GOP is getting the social conservatives out to vote. One might think that when the GOP continually proclaims The End Times Are Here! every two years, they would get a clue.
Well we’ll see tomorrow night, or perhaps soon after once the lawsuits are settled. If they hold the Senate, great. If not, ah well.
You actually believe the Republicans are doing a good job of running this country?
FWIW, I’m stick with my predictions that the Nuts will pick up 22 House Seats, and the Crooks will lose 4 Senate seats. I also predict that the final numbers in the House won’t be known until December because of lawsuits, but the Nuts will have enough on Wednesday to declare victory and annoint the Botox Bolshevik as Speaker.
I think the next two years will be interesting. I think a couple of years of San Francisco style liberalism in the House, along with impeachment hearings, Charlie Rangel’s push to repeal Bush tax cut (thus increasing the average middle class taxpayer’s burden by $2000 a year) should focus the public mind quite effectively. Especially when Bush and the Democrat Congress team up to push through an even worse Amnesty Bill then the Senate passed last year.
What I don’t get is people pushing for “divided government” as the cure for fiscal profligacy. So, basically, you get a president that spends money like a crackwhore coupled with a congress eager to spend money on crackwhores (and every other social group they think they can bribe into voting for them), and somehow this cuts the deficit? Frankly, don’t see it.
I really hope Republicans win big so that the Federal Marriage Protection Amendment passes soon.
Vote Santorum!!!! Hip-Hip-Rick-AY!!!!
#5. No, they want to spend money on pages and hookers, not crack whores.
Considering I was talking about Democrats, #7 is of course correct. Rare that a leftie admits it so forthrightly.
Kenny boy toy Mehlman apparently forgot to include this latest CNN Poll and this new “fair and balanced” Faux News Poll which show the Dems ahead by 20 and 13 respectively. We’ll see tomorrow. I’m actually slightly more pessimistic than VtheK: Dems at +21 House and +4 Senate. Lieberman will win in CT but then in 2007, Rumsfeld will resign and Bush will ask Lieberman to take over which he will do and the CT Governor will select a Repub to replace him.
Ian, your new links look nice on you (insert smiley here).
#10: Thank you John. It is hard to break the habit of clicking on “Comments” instead of the post title though. But I guess even an old dog like me can learn new tricks.
While no one really knows how America will vote today, the final Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook reports don’t believe the “mo” has swung to the Republicans.