Four separate polls over the weekend are showing a dramatic shift toward the Republicans on the eve of the mid-term elections. RNC Chairman Ken Mehlman summarizes this momentum nicely.
TO: REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP AND INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: KEN MEHLMAN
DATE: NOVEMBER 6, 2006
RE: ANOTHER POLL CONFIRMS GOP MOMENTUM
The momentum continues with a fourth poll in recent days showing Republicans gaining ground on Democrats in the closing days of the election. James Carville and Stan Greenberg’s Democracy Corps poll (November 2-5) confirms the findings of three other polls released in the last two days that show Republicans gaining ground in their competitive district survey.
GENERIC BALLOT. Republicans have cut the margin from down 11 (41-52) last week to down only four (45-49) this morning.
PARTY IMAGE. Democracy Corps shows that Republicans have a better image rating than Democrats for the first time since early September. From their last poll, Republicans’ favorable/unfavorable ratio had improved a net-5 points while Democrats dropped a net-4 points.
HANDLING OF ISSUES. A big reason for Republican gains is that trust on key issues has increased over the past few weeks. Built on recent good economic news, Republicans handling on the economy has improved a net-9 points from a week ago. Republicans have also seen significant gains on handling of taxes (+7), Iraq (+7) and national security (+4).
GOP CAMPAIGNS MAKING IMPACT. Another significant reason for Republican gains can be found in the GOP’s 72-hour get out the vote program which is now in full swing. This poll showed that Republicans have made a greater impact than Democrats with TV ads (+6), mailings (+6), and phone calls (+6).
OTHER INDICATORS IMPROVE.
· Direction of the nation, otherwise known as “right track / wrong track”, improved a net-6 points from their previous poll.
· The President’s job approval has increased a net-5 points and Congressional Job Approval increased a net-12 points from their October 25-29 survey.
Reporting from the Charlotte area, I can tell you that the news “on the ground” has been very good for the GOP this week. A Mecklenburg County GOP volunteer told the PatriotMom last week that early voting has been above 2004 levels and “it is all Republican voters.”
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Mecklenburg County, a potentially crucial indicator for Tuesday’s election.
Election Day is still three days away, but more than 18,000 people have already voted.
In the past two major elections in Mecklenburg, the party that dominated early voting controlled the board of county commissioners and chalked up victories in other major races.
Through Wednesday, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats, 43.2 percent to 39.1 percent, according to an Observer analysis of in-person early voting. The strong Republican turnout bucks national predictions of Democratic success, and could leave power over property taxes, parks and school construction in Republican hands.
The numbers also mark a huge reversal from 2004, when an early-voting surge helped Democrats sweep all three at-large county commissioner seats and deliver Mecklenburg to presidential candidate John Kerry.
Is the Democrat “wave” going the other direction now that the voters are actually deciding?
I have no idea what tomorrow will bring….no one does for sure. But I will be very glad to see that if the actual voting results do not mesh with the Big Media’s Mid-Term Storyline…. that the MSM, Zogby and all of the other talking heads will have egg on their face and James Carville will put another trash can on his head.
**UPDATE** — DSCC head US Sen. Chuck Schumer has now written off the Dems capturing the Senate (hat tip: PatriotPartner)
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