Bush Recovery Still Rolling On… Again… And Again…
As Larry Kudlow points out, the “Goldilocks US Economy” just keeps growing and surprising the “experts.”
Though Mr. Bush never gets any credit for the strong economy, the reality is that economic growth continues to surprise everyone. Today’s real GDP report came in at 3.5 percent at an annual rate for the October-December period in 2006.
Consumer spending was very strong (+4.4 percent) for both durable and non-durable goods (+6.0 percent and +6.9 percent, respectively). Business capital investment spending was weak (-0.4 percent), perhaps due to energy prices, but we believe it will rebound.
Price inflation inside the report was very low around 2 percent with one major price gauge actually declining for its biggest drop in 52 years. Treasury yields inched lower in response to the data, including the 10-year TIP yield, the economy’s natural rate proxy. However, the 10-year TIP spread, the market’s inflation expectations, was unchanged and remains within the range dating back to early-2004.
For the whole year, GDP advanced 3.4 percent following 3.2 percent last year, 3.4 percent in 2004, and 3.7 percent in 2003.
The highly diverse and resilient American economy has not been derailed by a temporary housing slump, which occurred last year following many years of outsized gains. Excluding the drag from housing investment, real GDP growth in the 4th quarter was 4.8 percent and was 4.3 percent for the year.
Mr. Bush is on the right track as he follows classical supply-side economic principles. He deserves a better polling fate for this achievement. Be that as it may be, the Goldilocks economy, not too hot and not too cold, continues to defeat all the pessimists and nay-sayers out there.
Nevermind that the Bush Recovery brought us out of the double-whammy of the Clinton Recession and the 9/11 Attacks.
So… are you ready for it? Since, according to the MadLibs, this is the most inept, yet evil-brilliant President ever… we must do it… altogether now… say it in unison:
IT… IS… ALL… BUSH’S… FAULT!
[RELATED STORY: Economy Grows at 3.5 Percent in 4th Quarter - BREITBART.com]
PS – Five gets you ten that the CBS Evening News with Katie Couric tonight will lead with: “Despite the words of the President today, the one person we searched all day to find in our Blue State community says he can’t find a job and the economy sucks….”
I’ll bet ya a million.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
UPDATE (from GPW): Via Instapundit, I learn that when the President visited the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, “all the floor brokers and their assistants stopped work and started cheering and applauding.” Hmm. . . . the president on the floor of the NY Stock Exchange, only the second sitting Chief Executive in U.S. history to make such a visit and the market rallies to “another trading high.”
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Bruce, it already has. Here’s the last part of the al-AP report on the economic “surge” (gotta love that word!):
“Democrats respond that Bush is giving a misleadingly rosy picture about the economy.
” ‘President Bush can deliver all the economic pep talks he wants, but the fact remains that his failed leadership has led to the worst job recovery on record, stagnating household incomes, a rise in poverty and record deficits,’ said Stacie Paxton, spokeswoman for the Democratic National Committee.
“Since Bush took office in 2001, the country has seen one in five manufacturing jobs disappear, a total of 2.96 million lost jobs. The U.S. trade deficit is expected to climb to a fifth consecutive record when final 2006 figures are totaled next month.”
Note that last phrase – “EXPECTED to climb,” not a certainty. If it doesn’t, the MSM won’t cover it and the “other” Americans (as alluded to by John Edwards) will assume that things are rotten in the state of Denmark.
As far as The Perky One goes, her dwindling viewership at the Tiffany Network is proof that NOBODY IS LISTENING. She’s pulling lower ratings than Rather did during Memogate and its aftermath.
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — January 31, 2007 @ 2:53 pm - January 31, 2007
As for “stagnating household incomes”, see here: http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/economy/2007/#section3
If this is “stagnation”: please, give us in the middle class more! more! more!!!
Comment by Calarato — January 31, 2007 @ 4:44 pm - January 31, 2007
Bruce, here in Michigan, the national recovery has all but ignored us. Under the Democrat Gov, our employment rate hovers at 93-92%, large manufacturing and research companies are leaving the state (Pfizer just closed up 2400+ jobs), our schools are crumbling, our roads stink, our Gt Lks water is getting hijacked in order to water some DINK’s yellow lab, our cities are firing police and fire, we’re facing an $800m structural deficit in the state budget and the Gov and Dem state House want to hike taxes.
While I appreciate the nation is doing well… here in Michigan it just sucks.
I didn’t care if the Prez talked about Katrina… Michigan is the REAL economic disaster… give us some of that $110 billion that Nagin and LandieMoonBeam can’t seem to spend!
Comment by Michigan-Matt — January 31, 2007 @ 5:08 pm - January 31, 2007
Michigan-Matt:
Are you serious? 93% unemployed?
Comment by Attmay — January 31, 2007 @ 8:14 pm - January 31, 2007
93% employed. (7% unemployed. Don’t feel bad; I had to do a double-take as well.)
Comment by Calarato — January 31, 2007 @ 8:25 pm - January 31, 2007
Hmm…maybe the recovery has to do with the fact that the democrats are the majority in the congress now and we can see light at the end of the 2 year tunnel til Bush exits the whtie house. despite what you think, allthese factors are pretty much ignoring Bush’s effect on things. he’s been annointed a lame duck and people want him out.
Comment by Kevin — January 31, 2007 @ 9:39 pm - January 31, 2007
Not to nitpick or anything, but the “employment rate” is not simply 100 minus the unemployment rate — it’s the number of working-age adults who have jobs. In the U.S., the actual employment rate for adults between 25 and 54 is around 80%. The difference between 20% and the official unemployment rate is explained by the fact that some adults do not work, perhaps because their spouses support them financially, or they are disabled, or they’re in prison, or (insert gratuitous remark about “freeloaders” here).
Comment by vaara — January 31, 2007 @ 11:19 pm - January 31, 2007
M-Matt, Seattle’s economy is booming and has been for years. If you’re considering moving and you’re not in a highly Michigan-specific field, I’ve no doubt you’d find work here.
Comment by HardHobbit — January 31, 2007 @ 11:25 pm - January 31, 2007
HH: how can that be?? Washington’s current governor is a Democrat, as were her three immediate predecessors.
Comment by vaara — January 31, 2007 @ 11:33 pm - January 31, 2007
Anyone can selectively choose statistics to support a position. Yes, employment may have grown, but they’re mainly low-wage jobs. Many professional jobs like (engineering, marketing, science, etc.) have been outsourced. Having several more wal-mart and mcdonalds jobs doesn’t make up for the US falling behind in math and science. Real wages have actually decreased. It is the best economy… if you are a billionaire. Otherwise it isn’t.
Also, Clinton left us with a surplus national budget, Bush turned a surplus into a gigantic deficit. Don’t think for a moment that deficit will disappear. Nothing is free, if ignored it will come back to haunt us. Not to mention it’s almost painful to think what it would have been like if the $1-2 trillion total spent on the Iraq war had been spent on something that could have really helped America, like energy independence or education.
Comment by mark — January 31, 2007 @ 11:57 pm - January 31, 2007
vaara, we have what’s called the “Mount Rainier Factor”. Because this is such a beautiful area, people want to live and work here, which in itself fuels large parts of the economy such as housing construction, tourism, hospitality, etc. The University of Washington can afford to pay its professors somewhat lower salaries than comparable counterparts in other large, state academic institutions because the natural beauty of the area is considered a benefit. Washington State is actually considered relatively hostile to business (Boeing will probably leave Washington at some point — their head offices were moved to Chicago in disgust), but we don’t have an income tax which many consider regressive (but it attracts those who build wealth — Democrats have been trying to enact an income tax for decades via the legislature and via iniatives and referenda, but it ultimately requires a change to our state constitution). Our insurance system here is particularly bad — it’s very difficult for individuals to buy their own individual health insurance policy, for example. Though you’re right re. our long line of Democrats in the mansion, our governorship is a relatively weak one, our judicial and legislative branches continually having to be deferred to.
Comment by HardHobbit — February 1, 2007 @ 12:04 am - February 1, 2007
Hmm…maybe the recovery has to do with the fact that the democrats are the majority in the congress now and we can see light at the end of the 2 year tunnel til Bush exits the whtie house.
What in God’s name are you smoking???? The libs have been the majority for how many days? The recovery and low unemployment has been going on for a few years now and, I dare say, hardly ANY of it can be attributed to the liberals.
Meanwhile, did anybody else see the story in the WSJ the other day about the several states that are considering doing away with state taxes? It’s telling that the states with the highest taxes are the ones bleeding people and business to the states without taxes.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — February 1, 2007 @ 2:40 am - February 1, 2007
#12 – TGC, great little quote that you called out there. I agree. Thinking so immature, so ‘magical’, so pathetically removed from reality (or any understanding of the economy and the time scales involved in policy impacts), that the speaker’s mental competence may be doubted.
But, every household has a crazy aunt and it’s what we have come to expect from our beloved Kevin. Whom, by the way, I congratulate on escaping the “gay death camps” one more season.
Comment by Calarato — February 1, 2007 @ 10:40 am - February 1, 2007
Cal, your “crazy aunt” quote made my day. Thanks!
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — February 1, 2007 @ 12:05 pm - February 1, 2007
Larry is wrong about everything. How do I know? He has been spouting same dumb polyanna stuff for years. Another oil crises is right around the corner, the lack of cheap energy will throw the world into recession, the stock market rally has been driven by the FOMC pumping liquidity into the system (not by rising corporate incomes), the middle east is about to explode, the wall of worry has turned into a party with hats and noise makers, Business Week says the market has “room to run”, PE ratios of the major companies are ridiculously high, and Larry is shrieking much louder than usual. Other than that every thing is fine.
Comment by Gale Whitaker — February 1, 2007 @ 2:48 pm - February 1, 2007