Now that the 2008 Election is in full steam (i.e. — voters are actually voting as opposed to pundits blathering), I’ve paid much more attention to the campaign strategies, the televised debates, and Iowa voting turnout and the issues that were important to Iowa voters.
My preferred candidate, former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, has chosen to mostly skip Iowa and New Hampshire and mostly focus on the Super Tuesday/Big States voting on Feb. 5th. On the face of it, it seems like a good strategy given the compressed voting schedule this year. However, as we are seeing on the Democratic side with Obama, momentum can play a huge factor in the next voting state following a win or loss in the last state.
Time Magazine weighs in today: Is Giuliani Waiting Too Long?
The problem for Rudy Giuliani, the onetime front-runner in the G.O.P. race for President, is that he keeps writing himself out of the movie.
After spending 40 days in the state, however, Giuliani is now spending minimally on ads in New Hampshire and has largely put his wallet away, saving his money for later contests. Yet the risk Giuliani is taking by all but kissing off another state is considerable.
After Huckabee’s victory in Iowa, the G.O.P. is searching frantically for an establishment candidate to take him on and appeal to independents — a hunt made all the more urgent by the success of Barack Obama, who also does well with independents. But because he isn’t really contesting New Hampshire, Giuliani is not really part of that new and worried sweepstakes — remarkable for someone who proclaimed himself the national front-runner for so long.
It is probably still too early to know since the Republican side could be still muddled by Feb. 5th. But every news cycle where Rudy isn’t a factor can’t be a good thing for his nomination prospects.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
This is a lousy year to pay attention to “conventional wisdom.” The whole run-up to the primaries was longer than any political junkie could stand. Meanwhile, the average voter never tuned in. The TV “debates” were useless vanity battles between broadcasters that finally degenerated into the You Tube farce and Anderson Cooper’s non mea culpa.
The front end loading of the primaries this year make the “super Tuesday” line up of the past look like child’s play.
Has Rudy got a viable plan? There is no history to turn to. But that will not stop the talking heads. They make their living sounding like they know what they are talking about.
Rudy has to reconnect with the voters. Iowa and New Hampshire have taken up a lot of the oxygen. Fine. Rudy is keeping his powder dry and concentrating on catching hold once the train starts rolling. When I say he has to reconnect, I mean that he has to remind the voters why they have been interested in his campaign since the beginning.
The voting groundhogs are only starting to come out of their holes.
I think Giuliani has made a huge mistake. I could be wrong. This is an odd year and I don’t think “conventional wisdom” can apply in such an unconventional election cycle. Rudy is not the story with everyone focused on Iowa and then NH. I guess he’s very visible in Florida where he’s staking his claim but how will that give him traction afterwards when no one is talking about him much now. It could work but only if Republicans haven’t whittled down the field and rallied around a candidate yet. It’s a gamble and I think a bad one. but we’ll know soon enough I guess.
I think Rudy’s wisdom will prevail. He is keeping his powder dry, doing well in the debates and biding his time until Fla and 2/5.
I think that when severone considers terrorism, they will in the final analysis pull or push the lever for RUDY!!!!
After all, we are still engaged in the war, and he is the only one who has personally weathered that storm with the exception of President Bush
PatriotMom, my top 2 choices are Rudy and Fred, so I hope you’re right. Just to play devil’s advocate, though: What does it say about the guy, that he didn’t think he could beat his opposition in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or the other early states?
By staking his campaign on the Florida (Jan 29th) and the “Big Bang” Tuesday primaries of Feb 5th Primaries, he’s also created an effective end-date of much of the Primary season of Feb 12th for the whole party. The same is true for Thompson, and if the on-going Primary election momentum’s against them McCain, Romney and Huckabee for that matter.
By then all the large states other than Pennsylvania will have voted. It will either be decided by then, or a Convention floor-fight will be cast by then. I can’t see anyone sitting in-Third by mid-February staying in other than for Convention leverage and a shot at the Veep-slot. And I don’t see the old tradition of the number-two or number-three candidate getting the Veep-slot being workable anymore; their differences in policy positions are too cast in stone in contrast to the Party’s frontrunner. (Unlike Gov. Richardson who’s definitely campaigning for Veep….hehhehheh.) The GOP VP candidate will be an outsider selected either to be the the President’s right hand like Chaney, or a current political Primary-rival to be exiled to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue like Harry Truman in the old role of VPotus before him. Either you win, or the best you’ll wangle is a second-tier Cabinet-chair.