The first headline (to me) from Michigan is this: The GOP Nomination Is Reset and Up For Grabs!
First, the Republican campaign for President remains wide-open. Our party faithful are still looking for someone who meets all the qualifications they seek: A true consistent conservative with the experience to keep the country safe. Second, Mike Huckabee’s campaign to be John McCain’s Vice President has hit a snag. He has gone from the mid-thirties in Iowa to 11% in New Hampshire and now about 15% in Michigan.
Independent voters constituted a significantly smaller proportion of Michigan Republican primary voters this cycle than eight years ago, our exit polling indicates.
Independents made up only 25 percent of primary voters this year — 10 points less than they did in the 2000 GOP primary that McCain won.
As predicted, among independents McCain beat Romney 35 percent to 29 percent. But Romney easily beat McCain among registered Republicans, 40 percent to 26 percent. That could bode well for the former Massachusetts governor in upcoming primaries where independent voters are not allowed to vote on the Republican side.
Third: Romney Has Received Many More Votes & Delegates So Far. (source: CNN 2008 Election Central webpages)
GOP Delegates (1,191 needed for nomination):
- Romney: 52
- Huckabee: 22
- McCain: 15
- Thompson: 6
- Paul: 2
- Giuliani: 1
- Hunter: 1
GOP 2008 Total Primary Votes (IA, NH, WY, MI combined)
- Romney: 443,139
- McCain: 361,546
- Huckabee: 207,308
- Ron Paul: 84,554
- Fred Thompson: 50,925
- Rudy Giuliani: 49,198
- Duncan Hunter: 4,567
Finally, in EVERY Democrat caucus & primary vote so far in 2008 the result has been this: A Majority of Democrats Vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton.
Chew on all of that this Wednesday….
As for the Democratic side – the big story is Hillary Clinton losing the African American vote to “uncommitted.” The exit poll pegged African Americans going against Clinton, 68% to 30%. It appears that opposition by African Americans induced a split in Wayne County (where Detroit is), 50% to Hillary, 45% to uncommitted. People in the media are going to connect these results to the racial kerfuffle of the last few days – and they are partially right to do so. But I think there is more to it than this. Since his Iowa victory, Obama’s numbers among African American voters have been trending upward. Tonight’s results are another indication that African Americans are breaking his way. The Clinton campaign should be worried about this. It appears as if Obama might be able to take an important part of the traditional Democratic coalition. He is thus moving beyond the relatively narrow appeal of previous “insurgent” Democratic candidates like Bill Bradley and Gary Hart. This is bad news for Clinton.