Hey John McCain: Where Did Your SC Voters Go?
Before John McCain gets too arrogant and obstinant about his win last night (it is probably too late)…. I thought it was time for a reality check for Senator Arizona Amnesty.
Here is the vote total from last night’s SC GOP Primary (with 97% reporting):
McCain — 143,224 votes
Huckabee — 128,908 votes
Thompson — 67,897 votes
Romney — 64,970 votes
Paul — 15,773 votes
Giuilani — 9,112 votes
Hunter — 1,035 votesTOTAL: 430,919
BUT… here are the vote results from the 2000 GOP Primary — Bush vs. McCain:
George W. Bush — 301,050 votes
John McCain — 237,888 votes
Alan Keyes — 25,510 votes
Others — 1,256 votesTOTAL: 565,704
That means almost 135,000 voters from 2000 skipped yesterday’s vote. And more importantly for Senator McCain is this number: 94,664. Those are the number of LESS votes he received in yesterday’s SC primary versus the votes he got in 2000.
So before Sen. McCain is too excited about his 2008 SC Primary win he should wonder why he got more votes in 2000 than yesterday. And he should stop and realize that 67% of SC Republican voters yesterday voted AGAINST John McCain.
The answer is that the MAJORITY of South Carolina’s ”regular Republicans” either sat home or voted against McCain. In any case they certainly are not supportive of Senator John McCain and his trusted man-panion, Senator Lindsey Graham-nesty.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
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I’m extremely troubled by the 130,000 (give or take a couple precincts) that stayed home. This race has (or at least had) a candidate for absolutely, positively everybody who is right of Karl Mar…er Hillary Clinton and company, and still nearly a quarter of the voters from 2000 took a pass.
This is going to be a “base-turnout” election, and if the Republicans cannot turn out when there is somebody that is pretty close to themselves (regardless of where that is) on the ballot, there is no reason to expect that they will turn out when there is only one, and that one is not necessarily even in the same ballpark.
Comment by steveegg — January 20, 2008 @ 9:47 am - January 20, 2008
Why are you hating on McCain? Cuz Romney says he’s going to give amnesty? For one thing, he’s not really giving amnesty if you read his bill. Secondly, it would cost America more to round up 13 million people than to do what McCain proposed.
At least he isn’t changing his rhetoric depending on who he talks to (Romney). Or raising taxes to support social programs (Huck).
GP Ed. Note: You don’t need to “round up” anybody. If you stop the *incentives* for illegals to come here (aka - free healthcare), and penalize employers who hire them, then you solve the illegal problem through attrition — just like Fred Thompson said.
Comment by mitch — January 20, 2008 @ 10:06 am - January 20, 2008
The big question is why 130,000 didn´t turn out. If the Democrats turnout as many or more than in their 2000 primary then we, as a party are in trouble.
I was disappointed that Fred finished a poor third behind Huckabee. I think his campaign is over which leaves me cold. I just can´t get excited about the remainder. I might do what I did in 1976 and write myself for president.
Comment by Roberto — January 20, 2008 @ 10:10 am - January 20, 2008
Maybe once the primaries and the divisiviness is over, the base will sign up to vote in Nov.
I dont see how anyone can’t not vote… except for one area.. when you’re in a firm blue or red state… and you vote the other way.. what’s the point?
Comment by Vince P — January 20, 2008 @ 10:20 am - January 20, 2008
Look, conservative voters vote for whom they vote for a variety of reasons, even if they may largely agree on issues. And I’d just leave it at. I agree with just about everything you say on this blog, but I’m still voting for McCain come Super Tuesday.
Here, following your line of reasoning, let me crunch some more numbers for you:
70.09% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Mike Huckabee.
84.24% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Fred Thompson, your man.
84.92% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Mitt Romney.
96.34% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Ron Paul.
97.89% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Rudy Giuliani.
99.76% of SC Republican voters voted AGAINST Duncan Hunter.
Obviously, the lower the number of voters voting against you, the better, and McCain clearly is still the winner in this regard. But let’s move past that — you can engage in this kind of pointless negativity about candidates from our own party (you’re not the only who can use a calculator, Bruce), or realize that voters weren’t voting against any candidate, but rather voting FOR a candidate. SC voters aren’t vindictive enough to trudge out on a weekend just to waste their votes smiting some candidate.
I heard a lot of commentators before the SC primary claiming how the “road to the White House runs through SC,” expecting Romney or Huckabee to win this more religiously conservative state. Now that McCain has won, they’re all trying to cheapen his win by picking nits about the SC polling. Talk about a case of sour grapes.
You’ve also made an undocumented assumption in your analysis, Bruce. You’ve assumed that the SC Republican electorate to be exactly the same in 2008 as it was in 2000. After 8 years of a Republican presidency marked by the expansion of the “compassionate” government, it’s plausible that more evangelical types were inspired to show up, disgruntled Reagan conservatives stayed home. McCain not being favored among evangelicals — yeah, real big surprise. Put into context, his victory in SC in 2008 is all the greater.
Comment by Justin Wong — January 20, 2008 @ 10:28 am - January 20, 2008
On Tuesday, February 5, 1,081 Republican delegates are up for grabs in:
Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia
This will be the day of truth. The candidates cannot possibly saturate all 20 zones and the people will finally be “left alone” to vote for their choice. Even the talking heads will be embarrassingly (for them) short of conventional wisdom.
This political season seems endless already. I’m sorry to lose Thompson, but he failed to click and the rest is history. I would be delighted if he gets a surge, but I really think it is time to look ahead.
Comment by heliotrope — January 20, 2008 @ 11:17 am - January 20, 2008
The only possible reason that RINO’s dominate the states so far is a profound ignorance of the issues and past records.
Don’t be one of the many who will whine that no one told them;
Candidate Research - Know Who You’re Voting For ( The Easy Way ) http://tinyurl.com/2sowta
Comment by Winghunter — January 20, 2008 @ 12:09 pm - January 20, 2008
I think yesterday’s low turnout in the SC Primary had a lot to do with the wintery weather or at least the thought of wintery weather. I watch WSPA and thats all they talked about since Friday morning even though it really didn’t amount to much.
Comment by BobbiJean — January 20, 2008 @ 1:39 pm - January 20, 2008
Turnout was good in Iowa, New Hampshire
Low in Michigan and South Carolina.
Maybe the difference is single party primaries do not excite independent or tepid voters. The political parties should take a look at changing this with mutual scheduling in 2012.
Comment by Geena the transgirl — January 20, 2008 @ 2:39 pm - January 20, 2008
>>>If you stop the *incentives* for illegals to come here (aka - free healthcare), and penalize employers who hire them, then you solve the illegal problem through attrition — just like Fred Thompson said.
I’m glad to hear Republicans in favor of punishing employers who hire illegal workers. I keep hearing (from North Dallas Thirty et al.) about how the employers don’t know they are illegal which I think 99% of the time is complete bullshit.
Comment by Houndentenor — January 20, 2008 @ 3:15 pm - January 20, 2008
67% of SC Republican voters yesterday voted AGAINST John McCain.
OK, so I haven’t been here in two, no, three months, and the first thing I find I must do is nit-pick? The above statement is not correct. We have no idea how many voters chose other candidates because they wanted to give McCain the middle finger, vs a voter who likes McCain, but likes another guy better, or one who votes for another guy simply because they believe, in the end, that person stands a better chance of beating the Dems in November. If last nights race were a three man race, I suspect McCain’s total would probably be close to the same vote percentages he got in 2000. And besides, a win is a win is a win.
PS. I’m not endorsing McCain, but just slapping a little common sense into you.
Comment by sonicfrog — January 20, 2008 @ 4:09 pm - January 20, 2008
I’m for creating a system that all employers must use to verify employable status of applicants and if a business violates the law past a certain threshold then his business should be dissovled.
Comment by Vince P — January 20, 2008 @ 5:07 pm - January 20, 2008
At present, Immigration and Customs Enforcement is concentrating on money launderers, drug traffickers, gangs, suspected terrorists and other felons.
Perhaps we could have a “surge” and ICE agents could seal off places of business and round up illegal aliens. Then the business owners can be fined and sent to jail. Meanwhile, the ACLU can take ICE to court for all manner of outrages against the Constitutional rights of the poor “undocumented” workers.
This Republican is in favor of punishing every politician, democrat or Republican, who runs a “sanctuary” city or who will not make the enforcement and strengthening of immigration laws a priority.
How about a “turn in an illegal alien” program? We could pay $500 per body that is arrested and deported. It would stimulate the economy and broaden the self-deporting flow. Heck, an illegal could turn himself in, collect $500 and get a free ride home!
Comment by heliotrope — January 20, 2008 @ 5:42 pm - January 20, 2008
I’m glad McCain won rather than the Huckster. I’ll vote for McCain if I have to (I still hope I don’t) but there isn’t a chance in hell I’ll vote for Huckabee. In fact, if the worst happens and he got the nomination I just might vote Democrat. I can’t tell you how much it pains me to say that but the man’s attitude towards the Constitution offends me far greater than ANYBODY else running on both sides. He’s a threat to our liberties and system of government.
Comment by John — January 20, 2008 @ 6:29 pm - January 20, 2008
John, I agree with this
As much as I am totally turned off to John McCain, he would be 1000000000x better than Huckabee, so oddly enough I’m less concerned if McCain has some victories.
Comment by Vince P — January 20, 2008 @ 6:56 pm - January 20, 2008
Someone needs to start debating whether a 72 year old should be President of the United States and the most powerful man in the world. This isn’t like bring up a persons race gender religion or how many times they have been married. Age goes to ability to serve, and how long they can serve. I love and respect McCain as a man. He is not a conservative. He was against tax rate cuts, against eliminating the Dems filibuster of judges, against the Sec Def during war, against Gitmo,he made it fashionable to criticise Bush 43 when he needed some solidarity. When the MSM loves a Republican like McCain, what does that tell you?
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — January 20, 2008 @ 7:31 pm - January 20, 2008
McCain has yet to win a primary with Republican votes. He wins our primaries that allow independents to vote. Wait and see what happens next, in closed primaries.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — January 20, 2008 @ 7:32 pm - January 20, 2008
What is this crap about punishing “businesses” and business people for hiring illegals? As it is we are responsible for doing the governments job when it comes to collecting sales taxes from the people. And we are not compensated for our time in doing so. Now you guys want business people to POLICE the country for illegals? Tell you what, how about the government passes a LAW saying all “workers” must spend and hour a day patrolling the streets for illegals. How would you feel. It is the governments responsibility to secure the countries borders. And to field a military to keep us safe from any foreign attacks. They can’t or won’t perform even those two basic tasks. Now Americans want to blame businesses for 12 million illegals? Crap. Get to the root cause of it.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — January 21, 2008 @ 8:08 pm - January 21, 2008
Excellent analysis! Sen “F— You” McCain has LOST votes since 2000, and the Dinosaur, Drive-By, Mainstream Media are annointing him the “front runner”. UNBELIEVABLE! Here, Sen. “F— You” McCain only wins 32% of the vote in South Carolina and suddendly it is a huge win. As I pointed out on my blog, South Carolina is a solid Republican state. McCain should have seen the Romney strategy in going for Nevada. It will be a battleground state. And, it is growing and trending Democrat. It has been a marginal red state. Sen. “F— You” McCain used conventional thinking instead of thinking out of the box. For all the time and money he spent in South Carolina, it will not matter when he loses in Florida next week and in a slew of Super Duper Tuesday states on February 5. The establishment is trying to force this guy down the Republican throats. Even his defenders are tired of actually defending him, so they resort to diminshing serious policy concerns regarding the erstwhile solon. Sen. “F— You” will NOT be the Republican nominee and we will see if he will be the bitter old soul he has been and does a Joe Lieberman on the Republicans. Do not doubt that because for Sen. “F— You” McCain, it is all about him and the Republican party be damned.
Comment by Mark J. Goluskin — January 21, 2008 @ 11:37 pm - January 21, 2008