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McCain, like W, takes Base for Granted when Ahead in Polls

Posted by GayPatriotWest at 8:59 pm - February 1, 2008.
Filed under: 2008 Presidential Politics,Conservative Ideas

It’s bizarre for me being an undecided voter. I’m so used to be confident and outspoken in my opinions. As I missed the debate Wednesday night as I was dining with a friend, I read up about it on Thursday as I was working on my piece for Pajamas.

And I keep reading stuff which pushes me one way or the other. Bloggers at the Corner and on Hugh Hewitt‘s site remind me of McCain’s flaws while others remind me of his strengths. Daniel Henninger commented on his presence on the campaign trail, noting particularly his energy and eloquence on the stump. He can win over an audience. Victor Davis Hanson stands up to the other Corner bloggers and defends McCain’s character and record as he did here.

As I wrestle with voting for John McCain or his rival for the GOP nomination, just as I did eight years ago, the last time I was undecided in a presidential race, I admire those qualities Hanson describes, but also his courage, nay, his heroism, while a prisoner of war in Vietnam. He refused early release because of his concern for his fellow prisoners and he did not want to give enemy a propaganda victory.

And while I admire that aspect of John McCain, I don’t like his pettiness, the way (as I noted here) that he seems to belittle his Republican rivals.

In observing the campaign, I noted something else about John McCain–how, in campaigning style, he is so like one of those rivals, George W. Bush. He seems to take the race for granted when he’s ahead. Note how he began his campaign last year in a lackluster manner. Then, many considered him the frontrunner. After he had blown through his campaign treasury and had to restructure his campaign, it seemed he emerged a new man, feistier, more energetic, focusing more on conservative ideas.

But, now that he has become the frontrunner yet again, he seems to have shown less concern for conservative voters who could still trip him up on his path to the nomination.* Once ahead in the polls, he seems to take the base — and the campaign — for granted.

So too did George W. Bush campaign in 2000 and even ’04. When the then-Texas Governor entered the race as the presumptive frontrunner, he seemed to take his lead for granted, only campaigning with any fervor when McCain beat him first in New Hampshire, then in Michigan. Had Gore not gotten a bounce out of the Democratic convention that year, Bush might not have shown the tenacity he did in the debates that fall.

In 2004, leading Kerry by a substantial margin going into the first debate, he seemed to take the opposite approach in that exchange.

In short, both candidates, Bush and McCain, seem to sit on their leads. I liked the McCain who started to emerge last fall after he restructured his campaign, but since his victory in New Hampshire, the cocky candidate has emerged once more. At least in Wednesday night’s debate.

If McCain locks up the GOP nomination and enters the fall campaign with a substantial lead over Ms. Hillary, I hope he remembers Aesop’s tale of The Tortoise and The Hare. That swift-footed rabbit took his speed for granted and didn’t focus on the race. We know who won that time. And this time, given the stakes, we don’t want to see the tortoise of this tale victorious.

- B. Daniel Blatt (GayPatriotWest@aol.com)

*He does seem to have recognized that he needs to win over those voters, releasing “a television ad touting his commitment to conservative principles.” Should he win, I hope he remembers that ad was key to his success.

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17 Comments

  1. I am leaning towards Romney, many people I really respect are pushing him. Hugh Hewitt, Frank Gafney and Mark Steyn. Many I don’t respect like the NYT and the LATimes are endorsing McCain.
    But, good old Victor Davis Hanson has been very persuasive about McCain for quite a while now. And his latest article that you just linked to is very strong.

    I’ve been reading VDH forever, well since 9/11. But in the last year I read every thing he writes. Seeing that my son now works for him, and VDH thinks very highly of my son.

    I’m still not sure, and actually might simply have to make up my mind on Tues when I go into the polling booth.

    Comment by Leah — February 1, 2008 @ 9:40 pm - February 1, 2008

  2. Dan, I don’t think McCain cares a whit for the conservative base. All he is doing is paying lip service to us so that we will hold our noses and vote for him rather than stay home or write in Thompson.

    Here is McCain’s game plan: Please the moderates among the Republicans, Democrats and independents, and be the best choice for Democrats who are not anti-war on terrorism and/or who are not sold on more socialism.

    His immigration message is that he will work amnesty for those here. That is why he got the California and Florida endorsements and will get Texas and New Mexico as well.

    He has looked at the numbers and he believes he can more than offset the conservative base with independent and Democrat votes. He will get a fair number of conservative base votes out of default.

    It is a workable strategy.

    Comment by heliotrope — February 1, 2008 @ 9:49 pm - February 1, 2008

  3. Vote Libertarian. Or Constitutionalist. Or Green. Vote, but don’t vote for a party that doesn’t even act like it is following its constituents. The Rep party must got the way of the Whigs, or all will truly be lost.

    Comment by Tomare Utsu Zo — February 1, 2008 @ 10:16 pm - February 1, 2008

  4. #3

    Hey that’s a great idea!!
    We could give Mrs. Stalin 4-8 years in the WH. THAT’LL learn those Republicans a thing or two.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — February 2, 2008 @ 1:55 am - February 2, 2008

  5. I’ll vote for Senator McCain when Venus freezes over.

    Comment by David — February 2, 2008 @ 2:24 am - February 2, 2008

  6. I like VDH a lot, but nobody bats 1000. His article endorsing McCain is a miss.

    If he wins in November, McCain, at 72, would be the oldest to enter the presidency – and, unlike Ronald Reagan, he will look it.

    That alone should disqualify McCain. Not that we should ever have a formal age limit, but the U.S. Presidency is the world’s most stressful job, ever. Voters know this and will instinctively shy away from McCain in November.

    Libertarians were furious that the McCain-Feingold campaign-financing law impinged on unfettered political expression.

    That’s a belittling, insulting understatement. Hanson should have said:

    Americans were furious that the McCain-Feingold campaign-financing law ended free speech 60 days before an election.

    There, fixed it for ya Victor. As for this, touting McCain’s “experience”:

    …carrier aviator, combat pilot, wounded veteran, tortured while a prisoner of war for five and a half years…

    What a weak argument. Those aren’t qualifications for the Presidency. No one doubts McCain’s patriotism or past personal heroism. We doubt McCain’s (bad) ideas, emotional stability and judgment. The Presidency is not a reward to be handed to someone questionable because of the good things he did (or in Kerry’s case, claimed to have done) 35 years ago. Kerry was wrong to think so, and now McCain is too.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — February 2, 2008 @ 12:38 pm - February 2, 2008

  7. And, lest you Republicans forget: Over on Ace: John McCain, actual Democrat.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — February 2, 2008 @ 12:47 pm - February 2, 2008

  8. As I watched McCain and Governor Romney go at it during the debate at the Reagan Library I was struck by the huge gap that separates McCain — whose contempt for his fellow humans is patently obvious — and my dad, Ronald Reagan, who had nothing but the deepest affection and respect for the American people…

    I don’t like the way he treats people. You get the impression that he thinks everybody is beneath him. He seems to be saying, “I was a war hero, and you had damn well better treat me as your superior.”

    Michael Reagan on John McCain.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — February 2, 2008 @ 6:08 pm - February 2, 2008

  9. Helio, TGC, Leah et al:

    Now that Rudy, my governor (Perry of TX), Arnold and other RINOs have endorsed McCain, I will definitely vote for Romney on March 4.

    You are judged by the company you keep. And what’s at stake here is fiscal conservatism, SCOTUS/Circuit Court/Federal bench appointments, the WOT and personal freedoms. McCain’s batting average on these is .000 at best.

    The base needs to wake up and not experience a repeat of 1976. Trust me – I remember that debacle. And we sure as hell don’t need B. Hussein Obama or Madame Voldemort in the WH for 4 years to add to the damage.

    Sure, if it comes down to McCain vs a Dhimmicrat, I will hold my nose and vote GOP. But I pray it doesn’t come down to that. Because either way we’re losers – and better to deal with the devil we know.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — February 2, 2008 @ 8:25 pm - February 2, 2008

  10. Hey Pete!
    Have you ever noticed that what Texas does, so does Florida and vice versa? I thought it was just George & Jeb as governors, but it’s still going.

    I wish there was someplace I could bet on that stuff. When Crist endorsed McCain, I should have put $100 on Perry doing the same.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — February 3, 2008 @ 2:02 am - February 3, 2008

  11. Oh yeah, check out what the Florida liberal party wrote to Crist after his endorsement:

    In office barely a year, Governor Charlie Crist tonight turned his back on the people of Florida by endorsing the one major Presidential candidate who does NOT support the national catastrophic insurance fund.

    “This is a slap in the face to every Floridian. Of all the candidates in the race, Charlie Crist picks the one who ridicules the proposed national catastrophic fund that would reduce insurance rates for all Floridians,” Florida Democratic Party Mark Bubriski said. “So much for being the ‘People’s Governor.’”

    Just yesterday, in an interview with “National Journal On Air,” Crist said, “In our case, the audience is Florida and Floridians, and they care deeply about, you know, being protected. The national catastrophic plan is important to the future safety of my fellow Floridians. So they care a great deal about that.”

    Thanks for nothing, Charlie.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — February 3, 2008 @ 2:04 am - February 3, 2008

  12. At the moment I’m listening to Romney’s interview on Instapundit, with Glen and Helen.
    Unless there is some great change in the next 48 hours, I’ll be voting for Romney on Tuesday. And if he loses, then I’ll vote McCain in Nov.

    Part of me would like to see Hillary lose in the primaries, but it looks like Obama may win. Then we have a real problem on our hands. He is coming across as new, a unifier, a person of change. The fact that there is no substance behind all that rhetoric is irrelevant.

    Comment by Leah — February 3, 2008 @ 12:32 pm - February 3, 2008

  13. #4

    ThatGayConservative,

    The perfect answer to your retort to Tomare Utsu Zo (#3) was given by Ann Coulter:

    At least under President Hillary, Republicans in Congress would know that they’re supposed to fight back. When President McCain proposes the same ideas — tax hikes, liberal judges and Social Security for illegals — Republicans in Congress will support “our” president — just as they supported, if only briefly, Bush’s great ideas on amnesty and Harriet Miers.

    You need little flags like that for Republicans since, as we know from the recent unpleasantness in Florida, Republicans are unalterably stupid.

    Comment by David — February 3, 2008 @ 12:44 pm - February 3, 2008

  14. Good news from here in Maine! Romney has won the caucus. Even though one of our senators (Collins) publicly backed McCain, we went with Mitt. Yeah, I know – Maine – big whoop. But there is an old saying: “As Maine goes, so goes the nation.” Let’s all just keep our fingers crossed. I can’t pass this up – GO PATS!!!

    Comment by Jimbo — February 3, 2008 @ 3:39 pm - February 3, 2008

  15. The more Ann Coulter says such outlandish things in order to gain media attention (much as done the pop star who calls herself Madonna), the less credible she becomes.

    Yeah, she has a point above, but she ignores the fact that most Republicans didn’t fall into line on Harriet Miers . . . the immigration bill. Note that it was defeated, largely by Republicans not going along with their president.

    And she ignores the one issue on which McCain has shined–the War on Terror.

    The woman needs put her petty animosities aside and her thirst for media attention and start making serious arguments.

    She grates ever more with each passing day. Much as does Ms. Hillary.

    Comment by GayPatriotWest — February 3, 2008 @ 3:47 pm - February 3, 2008

  16. [...] that, in the month leading up to the primary, I had posted some critical pieces on John McCain (here and here) and one highly praiseworthy of Mitt [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Why I voted for John McCain in the CA GOP Primary — February 28, 2008 @ 5:02 pm - February 28, 2008

  17. [...] McCain’s series of victories on “Tsunami Tuesday” last month, I wrote, he “seems to take the race for granted when he’s ahead.” At the time, I observed that he ran a “lackluster” campaign when the MSM [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Don’t Get Cocky, John! — March 20, 2008 @ 7:05 pm - March 20, 2008

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