Is The Fat Lady Singing For Hillary?
The results are already clear. Barack Obama will go to the Democratic Convention with a lead of between 100 and 200 elected delegates. The remaining question is: What will the superdelegates do then? But is that really a question? Will the leaders of the Democratic Party be complicit in its destruction? Will they really kindle a civil war by denying the nomination to the man who won the most elected delegates? No way. They well understand that to do so would be to throw away the party’s chances of victory and to stigmatize it among African-Americans and young people for the rest of their lives. The Democratic Party took 20 years to recover from the traumas of 1968 and it is not about to trigger a similar bloodletting this year.
Will Hillary win Pennsylvania? Who cares? Even if she were to sweep the remaining primaries and caucuses by 10 points, she would move just 60 votes closer to Obama’s total of elected delegates. And she won’t sweep them all. Even if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, the largest prize up for grabs, Obama will probably win North Carolina, which is almost as large. He’s likely to win Mississippi and Wyoming and has a good shot in Oregon and Indiana. The most likely result of these coming contests is that Obama will be roughly where he is now, about 140 elected delegates ahead of Hillary.
You know…. if I had a dime for everytime Dick Morris’ predictions came true –Â Well, I’d have a dime.
I think my track record for political prognosticating is better than Dick Morris. And mine ain’t that great. It might be more entertaining, but it ain’t that great!
-Bruce (GayPatriot)Â
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Isn’t Dick the man with a book proclaiming the only person in the world who can beat Hillary Clinton is Condi Rice??? How the hell is that man still working?
Comment by American Elephant — March 10, 2008 @ 11:30 am - March 10, 2008
I loved it a month or two ago, when Dick Morris had 2 columns within 3 weeks of each other: one predicting the inevitability of Hillary’s triumph, and the other, the inevitability of her doom.
He’s an interesting guy. His analyses are always interesting. They’re just… wrong a lot. (Or incomplete, at least.)
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 10, 2008 @ 1:21 pm - March 10, 2008
P.S. I think the Morris prediction that Bruce quoted is pretty safe. "The most likely result of these coming contests is that Obama will be roughly where he is now, about 140 elected delegates ahead of Hillary."
To win the nomination, the Clintons have to do 2 things:
1) They have to make a case to the superdelegates – and if possible, to a few of Obama’s pledged delegates – that they are better off with Hillary. E.g., the rewards and pork will be greater with her; Obama can’t beat McCain; she’ll be around next time and will punish her non-friends; etc.
2) Next, the Clintons have to provide plausible *moral cover* for the delegates to override the popular vote for Obama. In other words: The Clintons have to pitch a scandal to the media. They have to get a media feeding frenzy going against Obama. Rezko might (might!) do it.
If (note IF) the Clintons get a big Obama scandal story going, then they win the nomination.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 10, 2008 @ 1:30 pm - March 10, 2008
I agree with ILoveCapitalism—Dick Morris is an interesting guy and probably happens to be correct in this case. I do think though he always has this unduly gloomy opinion of Republican chances in any given election. He seems to be liberal on most issues and yet such a huge skeptic of the Dems on national security (as well as a huge critic of Hillary, obviously) that he normally seems to personally prefer Republicans. I think he tends to greatly underestimate the popularity of social and economic conservatism. To be sure, being opposed to abortion and in favor of free trade, lower taxes, and less regulation is often not popular, but if you listen to Dick Morris, you would think the only reason Republicans ever win is national security and disenchantment with the Clintons. For someone so prominent as a political commentator, his instincts are wrong way too often.
I do think though that Hillary is done. Her comeback is really not much more than the press wanting a news story. The only thing that can really detail Obama is for him to become truly entangled in the the Rezko scandal, and so far, it doesn’t look like he’s guilty of anything more than bad judgment and guilt by association. (Granted, for Republicans, that would be career ending, but Obama is not a Republican.) At most, his association with Rezko will damage his image as a "new" and "different" kind of politician, which may help McCain but not Hillary.
This year is just too hard for anyone to predict. But I don’t buy the reasons to be pessimistic on the GOP side, at least as far as the White House is concerned. (I realize some Republicans despise John McCain for some fairly legimate reasons and don’t really see his winning the White House as a victory, but I like John McCain and will be excited to vote for him.) The problem for the Dems is that Barack probably will lose a lot of the elderly vote and the white blue collar vote. I don’t think he could win Ohio or Florida as easily as Hillary could. He’ll run up bigger margins in places like Vermont and make it closer in the South, but I think it’s likely that John McCain’s advantage will be greatest in the battleground states against Sen. Obama. I think Hillary would be a weaker candidate for the Dems in terms of popular vote, but I see her as better able to win battleground states. (This is just a hunch of mine. I’d love to hear what others think about that.) Of course, the problem with having Hillary as the candidate is that the superdelegates will have thwarted the will of the voters, possibly making them mad enough to not vote for Hillary.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the possible "do-over" elections in MI and FL, given that no one seems willing to pay for them.
For what it’s worth, I predict that John McCain will get a higher percentage of the military vote than anyone in recent history. That could be the difference in places like Virginia.
Again, I think it’s so hard to predict this year. I just think John McCain’s chances are better than his yet-to-be-determined opponent. I just don’t see his campaign falling apart but think it’s likely that the Dem nominee’s campaign will fall apart. I think the main thing that could go against McCain is the economy. The situation in Iraq, in all likelihood, will keep improving, and at the very least, Iraq won’t drag McCain down assuming the situation continues to improve.
Comment by cme — March 10, 2008 @ 2:58 pm - March 10, 2008
Opps, I meant "really derail Obama"
Comment by cme — March 10, 2008 @ 2:59 pm - March 10, 2008
Popular vote can save her, and provide her a bargaining chip for whatever deals go down. She would need to run up the totals in the remaining big states, and in the do over primaries. I think that is about the only way for it happen for her now, and its not out of the realm of possibility. As with the Clintons, they have a knack for making their own miracles and coming out on top.
Comment by Darkeyedresolve — March 10, 2008 @ 5:00 pm - March 10, 2008
One thing interesting to me about the Hillary vs Obama delegate map. Hills says she’s winning big states. Obama is winning more, but smaller states. Well Hillary is winning what are arguably solid Democrat territory. Or "big" states they really aren’t going to carry in November, right? She’s winning NY California NJ and will probably win my home state of Pennsylvania. But come on, any doubt as to who is going to win those in November. I’m really not so afraid of either Hillary or Barack as I was only a few months ago. I think if the Republicans had a guy less than 72 years old it could be a runaway victory for the Repubs. Plus the money thing. The Republican electorate is hording a huge amount of cash they can now start to donate to one candidate and a united party. While the Dems continue to squander maybe another 200 million dollars from here to their convention in September.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — March 10, 2008 @ 6:47 pm - March 10, 2008
The Clintons are shameless (but I knew that). For Hillary to be behind in the nomination count (since February 5th) it is a glimpse into her character and attitude toward others: She does not care. She is full of platitudes and deception and usually has an ulteriour motive in what she is promoting.
Barack Obama has – and will continue to have – the lead in pledged delegates. For her to be behind and offer him the vice-presidency is just another example as to why Americans should not give her their vote.
Comment by Stephen — March 10, 2008 @ 7:16 pm - March 10, 2008
I think Hanging Chad is riding back into the Democrat playground with his .45 calibre hissy fit gun shooting at everything that moves. It is time for the back room boys to invent new rules or sue someone.Â
Comment by heliotrope — March 11, 2008 @ 8:38 am - March 11, 2008