When I read last week that John McCain erased Obama’s lead in the latest AP-Ipsos poll, I knew that the GOP nominee was well ahead. That poll has a history of oversampling Democrats.
Even this one showing McCain neck and neck with both of the Democratic contenders, surveyed 489 Democrats (49%) and 369 Republicans (37%) (out of a total of 1,005 adults), a 12-point differential in party identification, slightly higher than most serious surveys suggest. Not just that. This one undersampled independents who tend to view the 2008 GOP nominee most favorably.
No wonder Roger Simon asked yesterday, How Much Do We Trust the Polls?
What strikes me when I look at the compendium of national polls on Real Clear Politics is that in each, approximately 10% remain undecided (or favor a third-party candidate). I wonder if those undecided voters are Democrats unwilling to weigh in (as of yet) for the candidate they currently opposed. These voters would be likely to come home in the fall when the acrimony of the current campaign has passed.
Or, are they Independents eager to vote for the party out of power, but not comfortable with either of the Democratic alternatives. These voters may well opt for John McCain when they realize how different he is from the Republican incumbent.
I’m not quite sure what the numbers mean, but as I said in my last post, Democrats should be concerned that neither of their contenders can muster a majority at a time when voters are favorably disposed to their party.
A pretty good sign for John McCain. But, as I said once before, he shouldn’t get cocky.
I don’t think the polls will matter much until this summer or until the liberals decide between Karl Marx and the Daley-land snob.
GPW: no, the polls don’t mean anything. *For Now*
The reason that you’re seeing McCain doing so well is because the Dem nomination isn’t over yet. The candidates are firing in 2 directions, and McCain only has to fire in one. This is how it works: the guy who isn’t taking hits daily from his own team is probably going to be leading.
Obama and McCain will both get a bounce from their respective conventions, and even a GOP pollster on NRO mentioned Obama may come out of his with a 15-odd point lead.
There is no cheering or confidence on the right over the current polling because it’s not polling the real race from November: it’s polling the current 3-way. The numbers we see now are as useless as those generic Dem vs. GOP ballot questions.
Plus keep in mind that Dems always seem to do better in polls.
Also, expect a full media onslaught against Republicans/McCain.
Remeber in 06 how the Media concoct the whole theme of “republican corrupt” because a handful of incidents… notice how there’s no media drum beat of democratic corruption.. how many dems have gone down in shame this year.. tons.
“Concoct”? How many sitting members of Congress were indicted or sentenced? Anyway, Vince is right: Dems always do better in generic balloting, and it doesn’t always/usually translate to wins at the ballot box. It took six years of Bush for those “D’s ahead in generic balloting!” stories in the news to translate into an actual sweep in Washington. Also, I agree, the media onslaught against the candidates has yet to kick in (Gore can tell you how much fun it is when the media assists in your erosion), and the “Obama is a communist elitist Muslim atheist” email and scandal people haven’t even begun to go to work yet. So polls right now just test the water, really: and they’re meaningless w/r/t the Electoral College anyway.
Not enough to establish the pattern of wide-spread corruption we were supposed to believe in. How many liberals should be indicted or sentenced? A lot more than the number of Republicans who were.
Here’s a good example, torrentprime; Nancy Pelosi shrieked throughout the 2006 campaign that anyone who was even accused of campaign finance fraud was not fit to be in Congress and should resign in shame, much less anyone who actually did it.
Wonder why the media never covered HER being caught doing it?
Nor did they cover indicted William Jefferson, nor did they cover investigated Allan Mollohan……
Polls this far out mean nothing. Look back. At some point most every loser was in the lead, sometimes even a huge lead. Besides, no one should ever get comfy. The media and public opinion can often turn on a dime.
I tend to agree that this far out the polls won’t reflect what will actually happen in November. But if the polls were showing the opposite, I doubt certain people would be saying they are irrelevant.
Polls do reflect the general political landscape, they also have a way of swaying people. Which is why certain people are telling us right now to simply ignore this data.
At this point the “polls” just reflect a general Party alignment, but it’s still McCain’s to substantially throw-away if he makes a poor choice for VP….like Romney, or one of the right-wing dinosaurs that will scare away the moderate and wavering Independents and Democrats. He needs a good, solid mid-Western governor with proven executive and social-policy credentials. Personally, I’d like to see McCain break with tradition and present a true Shadow Cabinet at the GOP Convention…preferably partially-vetted by then. This insantity of waiting until the Election or even after the Inagural to announce Cabinet and important sub-Cabinet nominees leaves too-much rudderless during the crucial 100-Days of a new Administration. It would also demonstrate that Cabinet and Policy positions aren’t based on election-season favors as in the past.
The Demo’cats will be tearing and clawing at each-others tender-underbellies like a pair of rutting toms ’til the Denver Convention and possibly afterwards.
No, the polls are meaningless. In fact, I think that we should not put any stock in a poll taken now with no Democrat nominee. Besides, shouldn’t Rudy Giuliani be the GOP nominee? Oh, that is from those polls LAST year at this time! Who would have thought that Sen. John “F— You” McCain would have been the GOP standard bearer last year at this time? He was not even on life support. I not only do not rule Sen. “F— You” McCain out, but I think he is the next president of the United States.