On Bad Candidates & Political Fortunes
In this morning’s Wall Street Journal Political Diary (available by subscription), Reid Wilson of Real Clear Politics presented the possibility that Republicans could lose two open seats in the South, Louisiana’s Sixth where Richard Baker retired to run a hedge fund association and Mississippi’s First, made vacant by Roger Wicker’s appointment to Trent Lott’s U.S. Senate seat.
Polls have the Democratic candidate Don Cazayoux ahead in the Louisiana District while Republican Greg Davis is only slightly ahead in Mississippi.  Both districts strongly favor the GOP, with Bush having beaten Kerry by 19 points in the former and by 25 in the latter.
While I don’t know much about either candidate in the Mississippi race, I have heard much about the Republican standard bearer in Louisiana, perennial candidate and perpetual conservative gadfly Woody Jenkins.  He ran for the US Senate three times in 1978, 1980 and 1996, the first two times as a Democrat. He lost each of those races.
Kind of reminds me of Jim Oberweis, a Republican who just lost a special election to fill Denny Hastert’s Illinois seat. Oberweis also lost three statewide races before seeking a House seat in a special election.  It seems that Oberweis, like Jenkins, has the habit of offending many voters.
If Republicans continue to nominate bad candidates, we’ll lose even traditionally Republican seats.  Had in 2006, we had a better candidate in Montana, we would still hold that Senate seat — and retain our majority albeit by the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote.  We might not need Cheney’s vote had Illinois Republicans nominated a serious candidate in 2004.  (And that would have affected the current presidential race most significantly.)
Noting these weak Republican congressional candidates losing Republican districts, I turn to this year’s presidential race when the political environment, particularly the mood of the voters, favors a Democrat. Yet, given the two Democratic contenders, each with serious drawbacks, our Republican nominee has a real chance to win election.
It just goes to show that elections aren’t only about partisanship and political ideology, but also personality.  No wonder a number of polls show John McCain in the lead and few (if any) show either Democrat approaching a majority, in a year when over half of voters surveyed are more favorably disposed to electing a Democrat to the White House.
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One would think that the good folks of Louisiana learned that liberalism doesn’t work back in 2005. Note Jindal’s election.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — April 17, 2008 @ 9:58 pm - April 17, 2008
I think it is all about good candidates as you say — candidates that motivate, with messages that motivate. The Democrat base is still all fired up, Republicans, eh, not so much. That is what the GOP must do between now and November — come up with a message that will motivate, especially the base. And I fear McCain just isnt going to cut it with selling out on “global warming” and his “greedy wall street” crap.
Comment by American Elephant — April 17, 2008 @ 11:39 pm - April 17, 2008
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 04/18/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Comment by David M — April 18, 2008 @ 10:48 am - April 18, 2008
Ummm..Illinois did have a serious candidate until it came out that he used to take 7 of 9 to wife-swapping clubs and that was the end of that.
Comment by Houndentenor — April 18, 2008 @ 11:47 am - April 18, 2008
Hound: Yeah, that’s an interesting story.
WHen Obama was running in the Democrat primary for Senate the leading candidate for the Dems had his sealed Divorce paperwork from court leaked to the press. I think the guy hit his wife or something
This forced the guy to drop out of the race, and Obama won.
The Republican canidate Jack Ryan’s divorce records were also sealed. Yet somehow the records got in the hands of the press and Obama won.
When Obama ran for the House in the 1990s , he went to court to challendge the petitions that qualified all his opponents.. he got all but one declard ineligible to run for office. (I may have some details of this wrong. i’m going from a half-forgottenmemory)
Comment by Vince P — April 18, 2008 @ 12:16 pm - April 18, 2008
Pity, if he had a D after his name no one would have cared, since all that stuff is supposed to be none of our business. And anyway, everybody does it.
Comment by Leah — April 18, 2008 @ 12:49 pm - April 18, 2008
[...] seem to be having problems in favorable congressional districts which favor them demographically by picking weak candidates, the Democrats may well have a similar problem this fall in a year which favors [...]
Pingback by GayPatriot » PA exit polls reveal weakness of both Dem candidates — April 23, 2008 @ 7:33 pm - April 23, 2008