No, I don’t mean the Pennsylvania Democratic primary on Tuesday. I mean the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination this year.
This thought came to me as I was talking with my brother earlier today. He thinks Mrs. Clinton knows she’s not going to win the Democratic nomination this year, but is setting the stage for another bid in 2012. I countered that no one will take her seriously four years hence should she lose this year.
She had a unique opportunity this year, going into the election the presumed frontrunner, based more on the standing her husband enjoyed in their party than on her own accomplishments. Ironically, largely because of his wife’s campaign, he has lost that standing. As Noemie Emery writes*:
If she fails to win, which seems likely, the Clintons’ joint reputation will not recover. The party’s first couple has been pushed off its pedestal.
With that pedestal gone, Hillary won’t be able to run from as strong a position in 2012 as she did when this year’s campaign began.
After all, despite her repeated claims of three-and-one-half decades of experience, she doesn’t have many accomplishments to show for all that time in public life. All she has is her marriage to “the most successful Democrat of the last half century and their first two-term president since 1945” and the prominence that union allowed. Oh, and the feminists (and related leftists) who swooned all over an outspoken First Lady.
Take away the Clinton aura of invincibility and the former First Lady is just a mediocre Senator who happens to possess above-average intelligence and have befriended colleagues on both sides of the political aisle. But lacking significant legislative accomplishments, a record of leadership and a personality which commands attention and inspires multitudes.
This campaign represents Hillary’s last stand for the White House. And methinks she knows it. That’s why, I believe, she’s is this race to win it. And given her Democratic opponent’s many recent missteps, she still has a chance, though not as a big a chance as she once had.
Should she lose this year, she’ll have a hard time convincing Democratic voters she should bear their standard in 2012. If she couldn’t win this year when she had the early fundraising advantage, a solid organization and her husband’s status in the party, how could win with that organization proven vincible and that status diminished.
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* Emery echoes a theory I put forward in this post, writing that at the outset of the campaign:
Hillary Clinton seemed poised to glide to her coronation, all but untested by real competition. She then would be free to start tacking back toward the center for her general-election campaign. She apparently made no plans to fight Democrats past Super Tuesday (February 5).
If Hillary doesn’t win now, she is a goner. If only for the reason that the Dems like new blood every election. That explains part of the Obama appeal.
If Obama is completely unprepared for the ‘tough’ campaign.
Hillary was unprepared to keep fighting it out through May or June. Both Dan and Noemie are right, at this point of the game Hillary was hoping to recapture the center with a moderate message.
I agree with GPW’s brother. If Billary lose to Obama, but damage him just enough that he loses to McCain (without her fingerprints being on it too obviously), they can say “I told you so. You should have picked me.” All the way to 2012.
And what are the chances that McCain will be a 2-term President, i.e., win again in 2012? He will only be that much older, and the country will only be that much more tired of what passes for Republicans in the 21st century.
If necessary, Billary will arrange for Hill to divorce Bill between now and 2012, so that she can blame this year’s debacle on him and say “See? It’s the new, refreshing, happier me. Vote for me!” You heard it here first. Mark my words.
It seems to me that Hillary is screwed in just about any scenario. If she gives up the nomination early, she loses respect. If she keeps fighting Obama to the end and Obama loses to McCain, she could get blamed for dragging out the nomination and fracturing the party. If she gets the nomination but loses to McCain, I don’t think the Dems will want her to run again.
Obama’s future may be shortened too. If he loses to Hillary or McCain, he may not be able to recover his current mystique.
In short, the Dems are going to take a big hit if they don’t win the White House, and both candidates are going to take a serious dive if they lose to each other or McCain.
Let’s try to analyze it from Billary’s viewpoint. These are the basic scenarios:
1) Hillary gets out now-ish, magnanimously, without doing any more damage to Obama. Probable outcome (in Billary’s view): Obama is President for 8 years. By 2016, Hill is nearly 70, and the country is somewhat forgetful of her and/or ready for a Republican.
2) Hillary drags out the fight, loses to Obama, but Obama is thereby damaged enough that he loses to McCain. Then Hillary can say “I told you so” as I described earlier, and run again in 2012.
3) Hillary drags out the fight, wins it, and loses to McCain. Then (in Billary’s view – which is not necessarily reality), as her party’s “historic” first-woman candidate, she is well positioned to run against McCain again in 2012.
4) Hillary drags out the fight, wins it, and wins the Presidency this year. Could happen, in Billary’s view. Not impossible.
In 3 out of 4 scenarios, Hillary gets the Presidency now or in 2012 – by staying in the fight now. NOTE: Again, not that the scenarios are all real. Just that Billary, being who they are, would probably think they are real.
Good points, ILC.
I would also add that #3 is not as ridiculous as one might think, given that it requires a mindset foreign to Democrats — that the reason they lost is because people didn’t like thier candidate. If one takes the mindset typical of Democrats that they never lose, but everyone else cheats, then #3 becomes obvious, backed of course with a new chorus of “look out for dirty tricks”.
I don’t think Snobama has the “mystique” anymore.
many moons ago, in 1971, I attended the University of Washington, and was active in the ‘women’s movement”. One day, there was an event I’ve never forgotten: Anne and I were in the “women’s center”; and in walks a black guy; and he says, when there has to be a choice, who do you support: the Black Revolution or the Women’s Revolution (that’s how we’all talked then). Well, Anne responded IMMEDIATELY: of course, we support the Black Revolution FIRST….
I think this Obama/Hillary smashup is amusing, in a schadenfreude way. It reveals all of the problems with ‘identity’ politics…. although, I will not be surprised if Obama wins against McCain… just because so many people will vote for him BECAUSE he is (somehow) “African-American.” The fact that he is an elitist twit will not matter when – simply by voting for him, the other twits will feel GOOD about themselves, and what matters more than that, eh?
He’s got a tiny bit left around the edges, but he chips away at it every time he opens his mouth. By the general election, if not before then, it’ll be gone. If he loses, the next time the election rolls around, people will be wondering what anybody ever saw in him (IMHO).
I don’t think you’ve got it right. Hillary can run for governor of NY. If successful, she could make another presidental run. If not, she can continue in the Senate and distinguish herself and maybe make another run. I still think this is pretty premature and also makes no acknowledgement that she’s gotten further right now than any other women in history and has done do despite the fact that Obama as been outspending her 3 to 1. She also has had to encounter roots from thousands of years of prejudices towards women and a liberal press that was so biased it was absolutely painful to watch. There was so little fairness there that I almost could not even listen to stations like MSNBC. The likes of Olbermann make me puke. And, she’s still there and hasn’t been beaten yet. But you dimutize that. Okay, but that’s not the way young girls and seasoned women see it. Even my college age son admires her and says he voted for her and will do so again.
Like ILC I suspect that Hill is gonna lose to Obama and she will then do everything in her power to sabotage his campaign — even though I still hold fantasies of riots and mayhem at the Democrat convention and Hill somehow pulling it through.
But I also think the Obama “mystique” (highly unpleasant images of a naked, blue, shape-shifting obama) is NOT gone, and contrary to Snuffleupugus’ performance on tuesday, I am dead certain the media will do everything in their power to puff it up and protect it and refuse to do anything that might perforate it.
No, unfortunately, I think Democrats still have the advantage, and Republicans have a lot of hard work to do to hold on to the White House.
I understand that the Dems still have quite a few of their super delegates still unchosen. I have no clue (do they?) how this super delegate business works. But I sense there is an internecine war being waged at the grassroots level over lining these people up for an old fashioned credentials fight and a third ballot decision. This is the type of battlefield the Clinton’s fight dirtiest in. All Hillary has to do is make sure that no clear winner emerges before the convention.
If Obama takes the nomination, I can not see much of anything open to team Clinton that would satisfy their lusts. Perhaps they could get a good beer franchise and become professional “smart set” luminaries. All they really want is money and a fawning following.
As to 2012, Hillary is an old tire who has retreaded herself in public so many times already, it is hard to imagine that the party would take her on again. I suspect she will join the Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry museum of losers.
Right now, McCain looks like he could win. But the MSM is going to pull out the long knives on him after the Democrats choose their team and McCain is going to have to fight for every vote.
The Supreme Court nominations are so important to me, that I will swallow the crow whole and support McCain in every way I can.
I bet the Clintons will have Obama whacked
I have an idea Hillary Clinton hasn’t even thought about “positioning herself” for a run again in 2012. I’m convinced she’s stayed in because of a hope that we haven’t learned of all of Obama’s judgment and character flaws. It’s possible that somewhere out there someone knows something that could bring Obama’s run to a screeching halt before the last primary in June, with super delegates knocking each down as they jump off the bandwagon.
Obviously the Clinton organization never imagined that Obama would virtually come from nowhere and be within reach of the nomination. (And, admit it, none of us expected it either.)
I’m sorry Teddy White isn’t around to write a “Making of the President 2008”. Someone needs to go back to Obama’s 2004 keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in Boston. What did he have that impressed so many Democratic movers and shakers to his campaign so early, when most bets were on Hillary to win in a walk? Hopefully, someone like historian Douglas Brinkley will take on the challenge.
There’s quite a story in the Obama campaign, and every political junkie awaits publication.
One would think that New Yorkers would be sick to death of incompetent liberals and the bog that is Albany. At least that’s how it would be in reality.
My two cents – Hillary is counting on an Obama loss to run again in 2012, as ILC has posited. And I doubt she’s going to divorce Bubba; he’s too good of a meal ticket for her.
Also, a run for NY Gov may cement her “bona fides,” but she’ll have to face a possible Rudy run on the (R) side – and does she really want to tangle with him?
OT – I am getting so sick of how Hillary is “ready to start from day one” and “her 16 years of public service.” As I’m fond of quoting Dick Morris:
So Hillary was in the WH for 6 years. So was the pastry chef. And his results were far superior to hers.
Regards,
Peter H.