GayPatriot

The Internet home for American gay conservatives.

Powered by Genesis

PA exit polls could tell us about Obama’s chances in fall

April 22, 2008 by GayPatriotWest

Aa Pennsylvania voters trek to the polls today in the latest contest in the race for the Democratic nomination, we may be able to see some clues how the candidates, particularly Senator Obama, will withstand the pressures of the fall campaign. Giving his recent decision to dodge a debate in North Carolina, the signs don’t look as good for him.

But, then again, that’s me speaking as a relatively partisan political observer, not as an independent voter.

To understand what the voters are thinking, the best (albeit flawed) gage is exit polling. Those polls today could really provide us a window into how well the likely Democratic nominee holds up in the fall campaign. In the most recent big-state primaries, those polls showed late-deciders (those who made up their minds in the last 72 hours) breaking overwhelmingly for Mrs. Clinton. With the help of a media no longer swooning over her rival, her campaign succeeded in sowing doubts about him.

Should late-deciders break again for her, it would show how soft is Obama’s support, suggesting that currently undecided voters might more readily break for McCain come November. Recall how much time Arizona’s senior Senator has spent in the public eye and how little has his junior Illinois colleague. People have pretty much made up their mind about John McCain; they’re still getting to know Barack Obama.

The real question is should the late-deciders break for Mrs. Clinton, would they mean she can win back disgruntled Democrats and pull in some independents in the fall and that despite the hits she has taken, she retains a solid base of support? Or would people just be voting for her as the only alternative to Senator Obama?

There’s another wrinkle in all this. By some reports, Obama has outspent Clinton “by 3-to-1 or 4-to-1” (he pro-Obama Huffingon post has him outspending her by “roughly 2.3-to-1 on ad buys alone.“) If those resources can’t swing late-deciders to him, it seems Obama may have a tougher time in the fall campaign convincing skeptical voters to choose him over John McCain.

While the exit polls may provide insight into Obama’s ability to sway swing voters, the real results will shape the dynamic of the Democratic race. I think Brendan Loy (via Instapundit) is spot on when he writes:

a double-digit win is necessary for Clinton to really claim an unalloyed “victory”; Obama “wins” if he can hold her margin under 5 points; and a Clinton margin of between 5 and 10 points is a murky gray area.

Filed Under: 2008 Presidential Politics

Comments

  1. heliotrope says

    April 22, 2008 at 5:43 pm - April 22, 2008

    I have been wearing my “Operation Chaos” cap all day. I hope that some source will check on the number of Republicans in Pennsylvania who have registered Democrat to vote for Her Thighness. Another important statistic will occur tomorrow and the following few days as “Operation Chaos” foot soldiers reregister with the Republican Party.

  2. Peter Hughes says

    April 22, 2008 at 6:08 pm - April 22, 2008

    #1 – Helio, you just beat me to the punch. Latest exit polls on Drudge are showing Clinton 52%, Obama 48%.

    And I can bet you the MSM will never report on the defections of GOP’ers from the DNC after the PA primary. Count on it.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

  3. Gene in Pennsylvania says

    April 22, 2008 at 9:02 pm - April 22, 2008

    Many of my fellow Pennsylvanians will not fess up to who they voted for in the Dem primary. Watch for the difference in the exit polls and the real vote totals. Barack in the fall is going to have a problem with people lying to pollsters. He loses 4-5% when the actual votes are totaled. White Dem voters are having trouble voting for the
    Barack/Rev Wright ticket.

  4. Gene in Pennsylvania says

    April 23, 2008 at 12:00 am - April 23, 2008

    So as of midnight 1.2 million Pennsylvanian Democrats and operation chaos Republicans voted against the Barack/Rev Wright ticket.
    I had a thought today, as their campaign goes on and on…all Democrats like campaigning much more than governing. Examples: Bill Clinton, Pelosi, Reid, Hillary, Barack, the whole Dem Congress.

  5. Hero says

    May 18, 2009 at 8:59 pm - May 18, 2009

    www searsoutlet store com
    tvb new series
    adrianne curry at freeones
    edgar casey predictions psychic
    univicion noelia uniclave com
    little cuties bbs ls magazine
    drow names translator
    veo stingray v100000 driver
    lord lucan international celeb feet
    maura rivera chile desnuda
    context clues worksheets sentence
    overlay layouts for friendster
    fotos lourdes munguia playboy
    a line bob hair cut
    elementary synonym word list
    bootz nude photos
    anekdota pang iba
    bronner brothers hair show 2005
    vin number breakdown 98 malibu
    www loveyahu vn

  6. Hero says

    May 19, 2009 at 9:20 am - May 19, 2009

    sheikh shoes store fresno
    rifle bullet ballistics table
    2007 g6 math taks test
    fotos de adelitas bar tijuana
    edward cinema san marcos
    skinny camo layouts
    free malayalam kambi kathakal rathi
    videos de trasbestis free
    pitbull leather harness
    blank weekly lesson plans
    pitman highschool vs ths
    larissa hodges aka bootz nude pics
    nephew tommy phone pranks
    lala amp carmelo anthony s baby
    mudfest okeechobee fl
    headache from tooth abscess remedy
    pictures of london charles deelishis
    anime mugen character downloads
    kimbo slice vs sean gannon
    matthew maconahay dad

  7. Hero says

    May 19, 2009 at 4:24 pm - May 19, 2009

    adjusting ski binding
    tsst corp ts l632m
    old english lettering tattoos
    loyalty betrayal ambigram
    milena velba miosotis video
    kristin cavalleri photo shoot
    pansat 2500 conversion
    lucky 88 hindi movie
    elweb freedom lolita bbs gateway
    pictures of staph infections
    rebel flag backgrounds for myspace
    high tail hall 1
    pictures of a graduated bob haircut
    free hannah montana coloring pages printable
    scrambled word solver unscramble
    spark notes to kill a mockingbird
    vh1 ilove new york
    sample double elimination brackets
    when does implantation occur
    beulah mcgillicutty nude

Categories

Archives