Ms. Hillary and the “Merkel Effect”
In his column yesterday on the Pennsylvania primary, Robert Novak attributes the difference between exit polls giving Mrs. Clinton a 3.6 point lead over Senator Obama and the final result yielding a margin of 9.4% to the “Bradley effect:”
Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama’s experience, the first African American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter-century ago. In 1982, exit polls showed Bradley, who was black, ahead in the race for governor of California, but he ultimately lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who predicted Clinton’s double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not: “I think voters face to face are not willing to say they would oppose an African American candidate.”
We may have seen something similar in the most recent national elections in Germany, yet involving a female as opposed to an African-American candidate. In polls leading up to the September 2005 balloting, the coalition (CDU/CSU) lead by Angela Merkel was running about ten points ahead of the incumbent SPD, but when people voted, this coalition won by just over 1% of the party vote, requiring her to form a Grand Coalition with the Social Democrats.
To be sure, a number of factors were at play in that election, including Mrs. Merkel’s own gaffes and effective last-minuted campaigning by then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, but I wonder if some Germans were reluctant to admit to pollsters they didn’t want a woman heading their nation’s government.
There have been a number of female heads of government and heads of state around the world, notably the UK’s Margaret Thatcher, but very few of them (including that great lady and Mrs. Merkel) won a direct national election where people voted for them (as opposed to voting for their party or regional representative(s)). When elected president of Iceland in 1980, VigdÃs Finnbogadóttir “was the first woman in the world . . . elected a constitutional Head of State.” The Philippines have elected two female presidents (Corazon Aquino and incumbent Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo).
I don’t know if Finnbogadóttir’s tally on election day in 1980 was less than her lead in the polls or if they even have polls in that Nordic (one could say Scandinavian) nation.
This all leads me to wonder if Mrs. Clinton somehow manages to win her party’s nomination, would there be a “Merkel effect” this fall and she not do as well on Election Day as she had done in the polls, merely because some people were uncomfortable with the idea of a female Chief Executive?
I just wish Margaret Thatcher were a few years younger and we could amend the Constitution allowing former female British Prime Ministers to stand for election as President of the United States.
We might better be able to test this theory with a woman who is a proven leader.
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“I just wish Margaret Thatcher were a few years younger and we could amend the Constitution allowing former female British Prime Ministers to stand for election as President of the United States.”
No
Comment by ShermanStreet — April 25, 2008 @ 6:39 pm - April 25, 2008
Yes, the US is ready for a woman president, and yes, the US is ready for an African-American president. However, both of these current Dem candidates have too many negatives that have nothing to do with their gender, race.
I am so sick of hearing about people not voting for O because he’s black, or not voting for Hillary because she’s a she. I think neither of these candidates appeals to middle-of-the-road Americans. Dems have the choice right now between the marxist or the socialist. Give me a break!
(I frequently read but very seldom post here. Couldn’t help but jump in on this subject.)
Comment by windybon — April 25, 2008 @ 6:57 pm - April 25, 2008
Very interesting post, Dan.
Our family’s firm is often involved in projects that require bond issues and we’ve had experiences with elderly voters polling one way and voting another.
If we’re promoting a bond issue for a new school, or a new municipal swimming pool, or a new park, for example, and elderly voters are interviewed in person, the percentage of voters favoring the bonds is almost always higher than the actual vote in favor. If a public project appears to mainly benefit young families and there are a lot of elderly residents eligible to vote
The flip side is that if we do our polling by telephone the elderly, not having to face an interviewer, are more likely to express opposition to the bonds. We find that kind of polling comes closer to the actual vote on election day.
The last time we made a rare venture into politics we were helping a candidate for a local school board seat. He happened to be a Catholic in a town that is predominately Southern Baptist (and doesn’t even have a Catholic church in town). The first poll was done door-to-door in person and our man was comfortably in the top three in a field of seven. A telephone poll just two weeks before the election found him several hundred votes short of being one of the three elected. He did win but it required a lot of hard work that we wouldn’t have known we needed had it not been for the telephone poll.
So I am not surprised by the findings you wrote about.
Comment by Trace Phelps — April 25, 2008 @ 7:37 pm - April 25, 2008
“I just wish Margaret Thatcher were a few years younger and we could amend the Constitution allowing former female British Prime Ministers to stand for election as President of the United States.â€
Oh, hell yeah.
And while we’re fantasizing, lets make John Howard her VP.
Comment by American Elephant — April 25, 2008 @ 7:52 pm - April 25, 2008
Windybon, thanks for jumping in. Well said, very well said.
I, for one, would vote for a qualified woman, but alas Margaret Thatcher doesn’t meet the constitutional requirements. And probably doesn’t want the job anyway.
Though Linda Lingle does seem to be doing a good job in Hawai’i. And she’s Jewish.
Comment by GayPatriotWest — April 25, 2008 @ 10:22 pm - April 25, 2008
Sometimes it is obvious we need some women with some morals in all levels of government.
Are you guys following all the Dem scandals?
Democrats might look back on Obama finally being vetted because of
1. Spitzer
2. Johnson
3. The Illinois governor is talked about being impeached
If it comes out that Barack has a ton of these nutt cases as friends and close associates his Presidency would be in a ton of trouble. Not facing impeachment but America doesn’t need another administration beset by huge scandals. It is one of the things the public has forgotten about the Clinton years actually.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — April 25, 2008 @ 11:36 pm - April 25, 2008
Windybon nailed it; it’s not that Americans aren’t ready for a woman or black president, it’s that they’re not ready to elect Obama or Hillary.
One wonders at what point the black community is going to get sick of Obama claiming that Jeremiah Wright, Al Sharpton, and so forth are all “normal black people”.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — April 26, 2008 @ 1:10 am - April 26, 2008
Rush has been talking about the Bradley Effect for a few months now.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — April 26, 2008 @ 3:28 am - April 26, 2008
Whew! For a second i thought that headline said “The Merkin Effect”.
Comment by Draybee — April 27, 2008 @ 3:25 pm - April 27, 2008