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Can West Virginia Save Hillary?

Posted by GayPatriotWest at 1:15 pm - May 13, 2008.
Filed under: 2008 Presidential Politics,Post 9-11 America

I’d been trying to think up some clever title for this post, even since I’d read some description of he former First Lady as Clintonstein, coming back from the dead. But, given her poll numbers in West Virginia (and Kentucky), she shows remarkable vitality for someone written off as dead.

With some surveys showing her up by more that 40 points, she could win in West Virginia today by a margin larger than her opponent’s in any previous contest. And this while most consider him the presumptive Democratic nominee. Personally, I expect her to do about as well in the Mountain State as he did in the Peach State, winning about two-thirds of the vote. Would a victory of that magnitude change the shape of the Democratic race?

In a piece on the West Virginia contest in Politico, Kenneth P. Vogel suggests it might:

a massive margin of victory could bolster Clinton’s central argument to the superdelegates who will ultimately decide the nomination. Her campaign contends that Obama has serious problems with the blue collar and elderly whites who dominate West Virginia’s voter rolls — and who Team Clinton asserts will be key in a number of states if Democrats are to defeat presumptive Republican nominee.

Would her success here, when most pundits give her campaign up for dead, cause Democrats to rethink the risks of nominated a candidate as untested as Senator Obama, one who has trouble with key Democratic constituencies? Given the enthusiasm, nay, the zealousness, of many of his followers, I doubt it cause them to reconsider or even to entertain the possibility of an alternative candidate. They have seen these problems before and ether dismissed them or claimed that these Democrats will come home in the fall.

I don’t think the West Virginia results will make much of a difference in the final outcome of the Democratic race, but they could prove a serious embarrassment to Senator Obama should he do as badly as the polls suggest.

Should he do that badly tomorrow, expect him to ratchet up his efforts in next week’s contests in Kentucky and Oregon to avoid further embarrassments. That seems to be something most Democrats want, given that nearly two-thirds want Hillary to stay in the race (via Instapundt).

The Democrats may have settled on a nominee, but a good chunk of their rank and file seems unsettled by the choice.

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17 Comments

  1. I think predictions of a 40 percent margin might be raising expectations too high. But who knows. If women in West Virginia are as upset as the women I’ve talked to — Democratic, Republican, Independent — in other states, at the way the Democratic left and its mainsteam media mouthpieces have been trying to force Hillary out of the race, she could hit the three-fourths of the vote you mentioned.

    I don’t know if there’s a Republican primary in West Virginia today (there is one in Nebraska). If there is, it will be interesting to see how McCain does. In recent primaries, including Pennsylvania, Huckabee and Paul have been taking 25 to 27 percent of the GOP vote.

    Comment by Trace Phelps — May 13, 2008 @ 1:36 pm - May 13, 2008

  2. I am curious what the margin of victory will be in WV and how the popular vote overall comes out. The Dems have put themselves in quite the predictment which I confess to be enjoying immensely. When the war ends, may the GOP do likewise. Well, that is if they haven’t remembered what the party is supposed to stand for that is…

    Comment by John — May 13, 2008 @ 1:43 pm - May 13, 2008

  3. Team Clinton have been trying to set up 15 points as the bar for major victory… so that when she does get 20 or 25 or 30 points, they can claim a blowout.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — May 13, 2008 @ 1:52 pm - May 13, 2008

  4. The Superdelegates are terrified of the African-American vote. They will never give it to Hill.

    I’m ready to toss this election into the crapper and focus on helping the GOP grow a brain by 2010.

    Comment by V the K — May 13, 2008 @ 2:31 pm - May 13, 2008

  5. I don’t think McCain has lost yet. If he does manage to win it’ll be more from self-inflicted wounds the Dems make rather than because he is a sterling candidate. Regardless, the Dem in-fighting is still enjoyable to watch. :D

    Comment by John — May 13, 2008 @ 2:50 pm - May 13, 2008

  6. My question is who Sen Robert Byrd (D-KKK) will endorse in his home state. Funny why the MSM hasn’t focused on this yet. Or more tellingly, why they are so determined to ignore it.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — May 13, 2008 @ 2:57 pm - May 13, 2008

  7. 6. Birdie will vote for Ob. That will be his penance for being a KKK member.

    Comment by John W — May 13, 2008 @ 4:16 pm - May 13, 2008

  8. #7 – John, I wonder if he’ll use the word “nigger” like he did in that Fox News interview a few years ago.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — May 13, 2008 @ 4:36 pm - May 13, 2008

  9. Well, he is so old and senile, he might. He hasn’t been able to get any goodies for WV lately. I think they are getting ready to dump him.

    Comment by John W — May 13, 2008 @ 4:52 pm - May 13, 2008

  10. Never count a Clinton out. If Hilary wins big in WV, then yes it will give her more ammunition. Either way, she will go down fighting till the bitter end.

    Miracles seem to happen for the Clintons, I assume that is what she is waiting for, while working her fingers to the bone just to keep up the fight.

    Comment by Leah — May 13, 2008 @ 4:57 pm - May 13, 2008

  11. I agree with V the K’s statement, how matter how good Hillary does from now on out or even how bad Obama does it won’t change anything. Unless something really horrible comes out, Superdelegates will not “overturn” the “will” of the voters and give Hillary the nomination because of what Obama has become for the black community. They need the AAs to turn out, and it seems as if now, they will only turn out for Obama.

    I enjoy supporting Hillary because she continues to fight. I like that she has become a figher, or really let that part of her shine on. She needs a miracle yes, but she will do all she can without one until it happens

    Comment by Darkeyedresolve — May 13, 2008 @ 5:39 pm - May 13, 2008

  12. I don’t think Christ Himself can save Hillary.

    Comment by Non-partisan Miamian — May 13, 2008 @ 7:43 pm - May 13, 2008

  13. Regardless, the Dem in-fighting is still enjoyable to watch.

    How about this?

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — May 14, 2008 @ 1:12 am - May 14, 2008

  14. [...] Can West Virginia Save Hillary? [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Hillary’s Meaningless Mountain State Victory? — May 14, 2008 @ 2:29 am - May 14, 2008

  15. John McCain and Barack Obama have achieved one miracle… they’ve turned me into a Clinton supporter.

    Comment by V the K — May 14, 2008 @ 10:55 am - May 14, 2008

  16. VdaK-

    I can’t believe I am agreeing with you on this…. but I am. Both PatriotPartner and I have (in this specific moment in time) found ourselves admiring Clinton’s guts and determination.

    It is quite lacking in McCain (It is My Turn) and Obama (I Know What’s Best).

    Comment by GayPatriot — May 14, 2008 @ 11:11 am - May 14, 2008

  17. [...] But, as the campaign wore on, and the nomination which Mrs. Clinton thought to be hers by right slipped out of her grasp, she showed a tenaciousness which impressed many, including yours truly, never a fan of the former First Lady. In a comment to one of my posts, Bruce wrote that both he and his partner “have (in this specific moment in time) found ourselves admiring Clinton’s guts and determination.“ [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Hillary Best when Behind? — May 17, 2008 @ 2:03 pm - May 17, 2008

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