Remember back in June (or was it July?) when John McCain was tanking in the polls (or was it Obama who was soaring?) and sage pundits suggested the presumptive Republican nominee had “frittered away . . . his three-month general election head start.” Some thought the presumptive Republican nominee didn’t do a good enough job making his case to the general electorate after having sown up the Republican nomination while his rivals in the opposition party were still slugging it out for the Democratic nod.
He lacked, as one observer put it, a theme for his pudding.
Now, with the dynamics of the race shifted*, it seems that Barack Obama, having securing that Democratic berth for the fall contest, has frittered away the lead he once enjoyed.
I don’t think Obama frittered away the entire summer, only the second half. But, he made one huge campaign blunder which, combined with a refocused McCain campaign, allowed the Republican candidate to bounce back. The presumptive Democratic nominee was on the right track when he traveled to Middle East and Europe to shore up his diplomatic and Commander-in-Chief bona fides.
But, he should never have delivered a campaign-style speech on foreign soil.
Not only did it reek of presumption, that he was acting as if he had already won the White House, but it made the trip seem less a learning experience than a media stunt. He should have waited until he got back home to make a public address about his journey, telling the people he wished to lead about what he learned and how his meetings and observations abroad would inform his Administration, should he win election.
That speech showed that the campaign was long on style, but short on substance.
As Karl Rove wrote yesterday in the Wall Street Journal, “Besides withdrawing from Iraq, it’s not clear what issues are really important to [Obama].” As people slow start focusing on the presumptive Democratic nominee, they realize that there’s not much substance to his eloquent speeches.
As Peggy Noonan puts it today, Obama “is more compelling as a person than his words tend to be in text.”
The real reason the dynamics of this race have shifted is that Obama has not used the summer months to flesh out his agenda. He didn’t come back from Europe and articulate specific policy proposals. He has continued to run on the inspiring themes of hope and change which seemed to have worked so well in the race for the Democratic nomination. But, if those themes worked so well, how come he did so poorly in the final months of the contest?
The themes may inspire for a moment, but once people start thinking about them, they will wonder if the qualities which make a good orator necessarily make a good president.
Right now, while the political climate favors a Democratic nominee, the momentum of this particular election favors John McCain. (Please note I chose my words very carefully for that sentence.) The presumptive Republican nominee has convinced the American people he is ready to take on the role of Commander-in-Chief while voters still have doubts about Senator Obama’s capacity to lead.
What the Republican needs do now is, as Karl Rove said, “persuade Americans he can tackle domestic challenges.” Let me make this one prediction, if John McCain comes up with a credible and easy to explain policy to mend the economy, he will win this fall — and may even do so by a comfortable margin.
John McCain’s task is to deliver a speech in Minneapolis where he sets out such a policy while reminding us of his service and his record. Perhaps that’s the reason Peggy is more eager to watch his speech than Obama’s despite the latter’s superior rhetorical skills.
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*And yet another sign of how uncanny it is when Bruce and I have similar notions for posts on the same day. I had mapped out this post before reading Bruce’s this morning. As the two posts show, while we often have similar ideas, we have very different styles. 🙂
As the race and the thought of actually ELECTING Obama takes hold in peoples’ minds, it all of a sudden doesn’t seem so appealing; sorta like plans made in the middle of the night while rip-roaring drunk…sunrise and sobering up makes whatever grandiose, substance-less ideas a headache. Sorry Obama, America is waking up, looking for the Alka-Seltzer and car keys….but we promise we’ll call; we really should hang out again sometime! (and we all know what THAT means)
It just goes to show how arrogant he is….. he really believes he is something special. Addressing Germany, of all places, about their presumptions of America, and speaking as a “Citizen of the World.” I’m not sure if I can tell he’s a real citizen of America to begin with…. and if that’s not certain, I definitely don’t need to hear how he’s a citizen of the world!
Boy was I drunk last night “I DON’T REMEMBER A THING”
🙂
jeb
I don’t think the dynamics of the *race* (the campaign, haha) favor McCain.
I think the personal dynamics of the *candidates* favor McCain.
Prediction: He will in Denver… and they’ll be spending proposals. (Or tax-and-spend.) “A chicken in every pot.”
Good post, Dan. I would also argue that Obama is having problems because of his Dem base. Many are so frustrated with being out-of-power for the past 8 years – even longer from the very liberal perspective since Clinton wasn’t their champion – that his attempts to appeal to centrist voters is not going well. McCain is having similiar problems but many of his base have seen the alternative and blanched. Obama has the unenviable task of trying to keep his hodge-podge coalition of grievance groups together in order to win without pissing off too many centrist voters in the process. Then of course there is the Hillary factor and whatever shenanigans the Clinton are engaging in. Combine all of this with the serious questions about his judgment give past relationships with folks like Ayers & Wright and this summer has not been good for him. Can he still win in spite of all this? Yes. However, the coronation nonsense is over. That’s good for the Republic at least.
I have to totally agree with ILoveCapitalism. Folks are starting to see what the candidates are really about, and McCain is looking better to them. I have never been a McCain fan and in the twenty years I’ve lived in Arizona, I have never voted for him. In the past month I have listened to him speak and give interviews, and it is abundantly clear that he is the only adult it this race. I may not agree with some of his stances on issues, but it is obvious that those are born of years of dealing with them on a national level.
#7 – And Hunter, what is so funny is the MSM and the Dhimmicrats trying to morph McCain into this eeeevil right-wing racist sexist bigoted homophobe, when for the last 8-10 years he was considered a RINO by the party stalwarts.
Stranger things have happened. Here in Texas, when Bush was first elected Governor in 1994 (beating ol’ Ma Richards like a drum), I kept hearing on local talk radio how GWB was not conservative ENOUGH for them! Yet boy howdy, come 2000 and Bush was Mr. Super Conservative to all in the land.
You mark my words – the demonization of McCain has begun.
Regards,
Peter H.
The issues important to the middle class favor Barack Obama . I believe his campaign strategists have to face the reality that his campaign is in trouble and stalled. If they do, and aggressively go after McCain on taxes, deficit spending and that debt that will ultimately drive up interest rates and threaten our economic stability, and some other issues, Obama will narrowly win the popular vote and have a little more comfortable edge in the Electoral College.
By the way, I think you left one important issue out of your post. As much as no one wants to admit it, more than a little of the opposition to Obama is racial. I run into people every daywho will cite his lack of experience, etc., etc., etc, who if they’d admit it won’t vote for a black man.
So the middle class like tax increases? (Allegedly on corporations, but passed along to them) And DMV-style healthcare? I disagree.
Then what is your means of knowledge? It sounds like they are not saying that could indicate they are racially biased against Obama. How would you know they are? Are you basically making assumptions?
(typo, sorry, “not saying *things* that could indicate…)
So, Jack, in short, you say that, if you don’t vote for Obama, you’re a racist.
That pretty much is the last weapon the Democrat Party has left — and ironically, it now doesn’t even work on half of Democrats, who saw it used on them during the primary season.
ILC, we’ll be hearing this line more and more. No matter what people actually say: He’s too liberal, I don’t like his stance on abortion, he doesn’t support our military, he’s all about raising taxes, he is prouder of Communist China than he is of the US.
It all boils down to, if you don’t vote Obama, you are racist.
Fine by me, call me a racist, I still won’t vote for Obama.
You can’t deny that the MORE people know about Barack, the more he campaigns to the whole of America, not just the Leftie Democrats, his advantage fades. We find out weekly about things like… he has a half brother in Africa living in dire poverty and Ms and Mr Obama do nothing to help out their “brother”. The least amongst us?? There is very little we don’t know about McCain. I’m not a huge fan of Mac but thinking people can’t leave the country in the hands of such an inexperienced novice. If BHO can be President, your local sheriff or school superintendent can as well.
The Messiah is NOT qualified to be president and His liberal policy prescriptions are nothing new. I don’t think I’m the only one sick and f-ing tired of being labeled “racist” for opposing a politician who happens to be black.
I will admit this: part of my opposition IS racial. If Barry is elected president, every one who dares voice any disagreement will be branded a racist. The idea of four (surely not eight) years of “you must be a racists for opposing [liberal policy] will do great damage to the republic.
If Barry were a conservative Republican, this wouldn’t be an issue.
I’m not aware of folks in the middle class who favor exporting jobs at what could be record levels.
I think another future problem for Obama is his tedency to do poorly with undecided voters. During the primary, Hillary often won or tied with late deciding voters which gave her her wins in places like New Hampshire, Ohio, so on. If Obama doesn’t have a good lead going into election day, or there is a still a high number of undecides…things will play better for McCain. It’s apparent that most of the undecides come at the expense of Obama than McCain, and there is enough to switch the election in McCain’s favor. I think Obama’s defeat will be more easily to fortell if after the convention his base vote is till lagging behind McCain, which unless he picks Hillary or she really manages to bring her supporters on bored, it seems unlikely.
The picture of this race will begin to show after the Conventions, this is Obama’s chance to restart his campaign to go into the fall. But like in the primary, Obama tends to be a poor closer.
What will be priceless is if Comrade Obama selects Joe Bigot and then has to circle the wagons to explain why. The answer, of course, is that Comrade Obama feels very much at home with hate filled people and Joe Bigot can hate America with the best of ’em.
Even more amusing is if the DNC shows their true Klan colors (white) and Obama winds up going home in the testicle lock box.
Everyone is waiting to hear HillBill’s speeches about their support of BHO…Hillary will manage to “almost” pull it off…Bill’s ego may send him right over the edge and they will pull his plug!
Also, the radical feminists are never going to follow the centrist BHO. He will have to show his extreme left true identity before they will vote social issues over safety.
jeb
I run into people every daywho will cite his lack of experience, etc., etc., etc, who if they’d admit it won’t vote for a black man.
Wow, Jack, I had no idea you were psychic. Can you channel dead babies like John Edwards?
And according to the Associated (with terrorists) Press, it’s Joe Bigot. So not only will we have to learn French, we’ll have to develop an Indian accent. You’ll note that Comrade Obama and Bigot won’t have to.
#9: “I run into people every day who will cite his lack of experience, etc., etc., etc, who if they’d admit it won’t vote for a black man.”
Oh, man. There is nothing better than when we get to see a liberal transform into a cartoon parody of a liberal before our very eyes. This comment is like a hug from Jesus. It’s the perfect mix of ignorance, irony, falsehood and irrationality all rolled into one perfect sentence. I pray that I’ll be able to squeeze the entire embroidery onto ONE side of a pillow. It just won’t work as a flipper.
I have A LOT of questions and comments for Jack Allen. Here’s two:
(1) Jack, why are you hanging out with racists “every day”?
(2) Jack, don’t let anyone criticize you for trusting those razor-sharp instincts of yours. You have every right to conclude that someone is a racist even where all the objective evidence is to the contrary. It makes perfect sense and I can’t think of anything more rational and logical. Of course, the bad news is that it puts you on the exact same intellectual level as people who conclude (again, all objective evidence to the contrary) that a person with darker skin is inferior, less capable and probably a criminal (you know…racists!)
Following liberal logic is such a fun adventure. You never know the crazy places you’re going to end up.
Good point, Sean. The key method you’d use in assuming people are secret racists is the key method you’d use in being a racist: *pre-judgment*. (a.k.a. prejudice)
P.S. Sean – just for information – as far as Jack being like a liberal, or cartoon parody thereof – I believe that in the past, I’ve seen him claim to be a Goldwater Republican. I know. It’s far-fetched, assuming I’ve got it right (which I might not). No political philosophy could be more opposite to Barack Obama’s than the deeply small-government, pro-individual and pro-American philosophy of Berry Goldwater.
(sorry, *Barry* – Me and the typos, aargh)
Saying that some people won’t be voting for Obama because he is Black is not the same thing as saying that a person who does not vote for Obama is racist.
It appears to me that there will be some people who won’t vote for Obama because he is Black. No proof, no channeling, just gut instance. Just as there were some people who did not vote for Kennedy because he was Catholic. I would be surprised if anyone here believes that there are no racists in this country left and/or believes there are, but won’t let their racism influence their vote.
Following liberal logic is such a fun adventure. You never know the crazy places you’re going to end up.
I’m afraid the liberals don’t corner the market on horrendous logic skills. Nowhere in Jack Allen’s post did he say that a vote against Obama says the person is racist. Certainly you could question why he thinks that’s the case for the persons he spoke about. And you could question that if he’s right about these people, why he hangs out with them.
But I contend that there will be some people that will not vote for Obama only because he is Black. I have no way of knowing how many or what percentage. Hopefully, it will be close to zero percent, so that it isn’t race that determines the election. Then again, I also hope it’s not going to be all the silly sound bites, the lies, and the manipulation that determines the election either.
Fine by me, call me a racist, I still won’t vote for Obama.
I still don’t know if I’m voting for Obama. I feel like it’s 2000 all over again, where I don’t like either candidate. If I don’t end up voting for Obama, I couldn’t give a rat’s @$$ if anyone regards me as racist.
The key method you’d use in assuming people are secret racists is the key method you’d use in being a racist: *pre-judgment*. (a.k.a. prejudice)
Good point, ILC. I may well be guilty of such prejudice. However, I am not pointing out any individuals, since I don’t personally know of anybody who will not vote for Obama only because he is Black. I’m making a guess from a whole population that there will be some persons.
It’s kind of like saying that upon meeting someone, I won’t prejudge them as a murderer. But, unfortunately, there will be a certain percentage of U.S. citizens within the next year that will, in fact, commit murder. I just hope that it is as close to zero as possible.
And in case I need to point this out, I am not comparing murderers to racists, murderers to people who won’t vote for Obama, and again I state that I’m not saying that anyone who does not vote for Obama is racist. Far from it, in fact.
Look, I oppose socialized medicine, punitive taxes, extremist environmental policies, and judicial activism when these policies come from white men. Why is it racist to oppose a black man who espouses the same policies?
Agree. And you know what? There will also be people voting for Obama because he is black. And I know that, for real, because they have told me. IOW, I have good evidence.
1) On a radio show, I heard impromptu interviews with young people (of various races) who said they were voting for Obama, and couldn’t offer any positive reason for doing so other than the fact that he’s black.
2) Two close relatives each told me, roughly, “My main reason for supporting Obama is that I think having a black President would be positive for the world”. Translation: They’re voting for him because he’s black.
Where I’m going with this:
– Providing an example of somebody (in this case, me) having actual evidence for people’s intentions, rather than making it up from assumptions.
– Making the point that whether you vote for somebody because of race or against, it is equally stupid.
– Making the point that we have people in America doing both. And (this is just my guess, now) they will probably cancel each other out, – or may be even end up a net plus for Obama. So if he loses, come November, it won’t be because Americans are racist; it will be because he really lost.
#28: “Making the point that whether you vote for somebody because of race or against, it is equally stupid.”
I believe voting for Obama BECAUSE he is black is not only stupid, but racist as well. The idea that the mere color of Obama’s skin will somehow impart something positive to America through his Presidency that a white man’s Presidency would lack necessarily legitimizes the opposite idea: that the color of Obama’s skin might have some intangible negative effect on the country through his Presidency. Sorry, these well-intentioned liberals don’t get to have one without the other. If the Democrats never brought up race again in this election, we would never hear about race again in this election. It’s that simple. They could turn all this off for good if they wanted to, but they just CANNOT let go of their obsession with skin color.
Look, I oppose socialized medicine, punitive taxes, extremist environmental policies, and judicial activism when these policies come from white men. Why is it racist to oppose a black man who espouses the same policies?
V the K, in my view, it’s not racist. And anyone else who has those views may or may not be racist. If they are, it has nothing to do with these issues.
I should also point out that I was more specifically talking about those who would vote not vote for Obama only because he is Black. Most Republicans and conservatives would not belong to this grouping, since there appears to be plenty of reasons for this group to not vote for Obama anyway.
Agree. And you know what? There will also be people voting for Obama because he is black. And I know that, for real, because they have told me. IOW, I have good evidence.
ILC, good point. And I agree with you. The two groups in question may, in fact, cancel each other out.
Bottom line, I know some reliable Democrats here in Pennsylvania who roll their eyes and say they won’t be voting for Obama. They don’t say why. You can assume it is his lack of experience or his race. BHO is relying on a habitually undependable voting block to carry him…..young people. Ever year they are suppose to have more of an impact. Even last election….the early polling showed a greater number of young people voting. Problem was, all voter segments increased. The percentage of youth voters stayed the same at 17%. Now that Barack has picked the old man Biden, how exactly does that energize the young voter. They are going to view it as another slap in the face.
Why? I mean, why would one assume it is his race, unless they do say that’s why? Or alternatively, unless they have a history of telling you racist things in the past?