Joe Biden: Not a “Game Changer”
In the course of US history, a number of party nominees have used the vice-presidential selection to help advance their own elections. And while some selections have helped shifted the dynamics of the presidential contest that year, they haven’t always helped the candidate win in the fall.
This year, presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s selection of oe Biden does little to shift the dynamics of the current contest. A poll taken after the Illinois Senator tapped his Delaware counterpart shows a dead heat. The selection is not a game-changer.
Obama should have learned from two of the three most recent Democratic nominees. Both picked candidates from the center of their party and saw their political fortunes shift. In 1992, after Clinton tapped then-moderate Senator Al Gore, Jr. of Tennessee, he went from polling third among three candidates to first between two, as far ahead of then-incumbent George H.W. Bush as he had previously been behind businessman H. Ross Perot.
Eight years later, when Gore tapped Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, he surged ahead of then-Governor George W. Bush of Texas in all polls.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan, then a conservative outsider, reassured the Republican establishment when he tapped the elder Bush as his running mate.
Perhaps had Obama picked a more moderate candidate like Indiana’s Evan Bayh or even Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, he may have shifted the dynamic of the race. But, despite his likability, Biden doesn’t really help broaden the ticket. Oh, yeah, he has experience in dealing with foreign policy issues. The only problem is that his liberal solutions to those issues.
Don’t think that’ll do much to reassure moderate Democrats and skeptical Independents.
UPDATE: No Biden bounce: ”Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama’s Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama.“
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Townhall has linked a great article by John Fund as to why Biden got picked. In essence, it had to do with Russia invading Georgia that forced The SnObama’s hand.
Read the article here. If anything, it shows that The Snob is a milquetoast.
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — August 25, 2008 @ 4:14 pm - August 25, 2008
Barry Obama is the most liberal member of the US Senate. Joe Biden is the third. Number four is avowed Socialist Bernie Sanders. That should tell you something.
Comment by V teh K — August 25, 2008 @ 6:25 pm - August 25, 2008
I don’t agree with you Dan GPW.
A lot of Democrats wanted Hillary Clinton on the ticket but that was never in the cards. She would not have been happy as Number Two to a man she almost beat for the nomination. And Obama would not have been comfortable having Hillary (and Bill) in the White House.
Obama is not comfortable in an attack mode and, like some other tickets in past elections, that job has to be handled by the running mate. As much as I admire Indiana’s Evan Bayh, he’s simply too low key, too nice, to go on the attack.
Governor Kaine of Virginia has been on the national scene less time than Obama. You, other conservative bloggers, the McCain campaign, etc., would have dumped on Obama had he picked Kaine.
Biden is an ideal pick. He’s a Catholic from a middle class family in eastern Pennsylvania whose record in the Senate will appeal to the blue collar white (and heavily Catholic) voters who supported Hillary but are leery of Obama. His record in the Senate will also appeal to many of the Democratic women who backed Hillary and are not yet sold on Obama.
As he demonstrated in his speech Saturday in Illinois, he can attack the Republican ticket with humor.
I’ve liked Biden for a long time and had Hillary not run, I would have been very happy to be a “Republican for Biden”. My respect for Biden was reinforced when the death of California Congressman Tom Lantos showed the very human Joe Biden.
Comment by Jack Allen — August 25, 2008 @ 6:37 pm - August 25, 2008
Notice that the selection of Biden brings “experience” to Obama’s ticket. Why, just eight years ago, Cheney brought “gravitas” to Dubya’s ticket! But Dubya had far more governmental experience than Obama does. Why not use the “G” word now? Oh, that’s right. Obama and Biden are extreme liberals, as are 75% of the dumb masses in the MSM, if not more.
Comment by Bryan Durio — August 25, 2008 @ 6:46 pm - August 25, 2008
The more I read, the more I’m liking Sarah Palin. The only thing I can find taht the Dems might use against her is experience, but she list has more than Obma, so I’m not sure effective that could be. Otherwise, it seems like a perfect fit:
-Executive experience as mayor and gov
-Respected on energy issues
-Pro-life, pro-gun member of feminists for life
-Working class background (her husband is a commercial fisherman)
-Gov of only state that borders Russia
Plus, she’s signed pro-gay legislation. What’s not to like?
Comment by Gary — August 25, 2008 @ 7:05 pm - August 25, 2008
Palin would pry loose some more Hillary supporters for McCain and change the game. I hope she’s as good as her reputation, and (if so) I hope McCain goes with her. But it doesn’t look like he will.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — August 25, 2008 @ 7:33 pm - August 25, 2008
As for Biden - as I said earlier, he has truly wonderful foreign policy expertise. Such a wise, knowledgeable man. Ed Morrissey provides us a sample:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/23/bidens-foreign-policy-chops/
(/sarc)
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — August 25, 2008 @ 7:36 pm - August 25, 2008
What about Kay Bailey Hutchison? I saw some sort of recommendation for her on NewsMax. She did survive Ronnie Earle-fong.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — August 25, 2008 @ 11:31 pm - August 25, 2008
Why is anyone surprised by the lack of movement? Joe Biden is just another white, old guy in the senate…one of those runs every election. Obama talked about Regean but doesn’t follow his example and pick Hillary, why is it so hard? He picks her, unites the party and would probably win the election based on their combined strengths. No, he caves in his hardcore, rapid, supporters who hate her and decides to go it safe and boring.
He doesn’t pick a woman, or a fellow minority like Richardson, or even a republican. I don’t see anything about him that would bring meaningful change to the political system, just a new party.
Comment by Darkeyedresolve — August 26, 2008 @ 1:51 am - August 26, 2008
Maybe Obama was afraid because none of those people look like the guys on the dollar bills.
Comment by V the K — August 26, 2008 @ 7:11 am - August 26, 2008
Kaine was the only one I really concerned about Obama picking. Such a choice might have been enough to turn Virginia blue. If polls are to be believed, my state is only barely in McCain’s column. The thought of Virginia helping Obama sickens me, but then I only have one vote. Pity I don’t live in Chicago…
Comment by John — August 26, 2008 @ 8:59 am - August 26, 2008
#7 - TGC, although I like Kay both personally and politically, I don’t think she brings much to the ticket except her gender. Her voting record is conservative for the rest of the nation, but moderate-to-liberal for the Texas GOP.
Also, if McCain taps her as VP, it may send out a signal to the Dhimmicrats that Texas is in play (even though it’s not) and they will send hordes of unwashed masses to my home state to barrage us with pro-Obama ads.
Good thing we Texans have a concealed-weapons law. But I digress.
Plus, it’s a badly-kept secret here in Texas that she wants to run for governor in 2010. And given Gov. Rick Perry’s negatives, she just may bump him out of the GOP primary.
One more thing - since when do we in the GOP engage in identity politics? Isn’t that what the Dhimmicrats do?
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — August 26, 2008 @ 11:34 am - August 26, 2008
Yeah… but that is a lot. Look, a lot of swing voters and Hillary supporters are going to feel bad if they don’t vote for the black guy (no matter how terrible a candidate he is). McCain has to make those voters feel great about voting for McCain. If McCain puts a woman on the ticket (Hutchison or Palin)… that’s a game-changer. Game over, in fact. McCain picks up a solid 5-10% of women and that will be decisive.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — August 26, 2008 @ 2:40 pm - August 26, 2008
#12 - But ILC, you are missing the point. What good is it if we put a woman on the ticket, regardless of her qualifications? I mean, the Dhimmicrats put Ferraro on the ticket in 1984, and she brought absolutely ZERO to the table except her gender.
I would like to think that we as Republicans would be better than that. Remember, it’s not WHAT a person is - it is WHO that person is.
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — August 26, 2008 @ 5:21 pm - August 26, 2008
#13: And speaking of Ferraro, it took 25 years but how fantastic was it to see her get her ass handed to her by her own party when she made the mistake of suggesting that Obama’s success was based solely upon the affirmative action policies of the Democratic Party (the same policies that put her on the map)?
Comment by Sean A — August 27, 2008 @ 1:20 pm - August 27, 2008
Who says Palin and Hutchison lack qualifications? I don’t grant that. Either Hutchison or Palin would have much stronger qualifications than Obama. And, unlike Obama-Biden, the most qualified guy would still be at the top of the ticket. So McCain can still run “Do you want President Obama handling the 3am call?” ads, a la Hillary. Obama still won’t be able to run the reverse on McCain. And if Obama tries to run it on Palin or Hutchison, people will be bored to death.
Bottom line, if McCain wants to actually win this thing, he should go with whoever is better suited / qualified of the 2 gals, Palin and Hutchison… it gives the Republican base someone reasonably conservative, AND it gives Hillary supporters a reason to switch to McCain that they can feel thrilled about. And we know how important feelings are to them.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — August 27, 2008 @ 2:58 pm - August 27, 2008
#14 - That is a great example to use when GayLeftLibs start chiding us for being conservative. After all, if the DNC can dump all over a former VP candidate for being honest, what does that bode for the rest of the lockbox votes?
The SnObama is exactly the same as McCain when it comes to same-sex marriage and other GLB issues. So why vote for him anyway? I guess old (DNC) habits die hard.
Regards,
Peter H.
Comment by Peter Hughes — August 27, 2008 @ 4:59 pm - August 27, 2008