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Comparing Electoral Success of Palin & Obama

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Over at Red State, Jeff Emanuel contrasts the presumptive Republican Vice-Presidential nominee, Sarah Palin and the Democratic Presidential nominee, Barack Obama (via Instapundit). And while he references their “previous public jobs,” he does not discuss the manner of their various elections.

That difference really distinguishes the two candidates, showing the one-term Alaska Governor to be a much tougher competitor, a more formidable foe, than the junior Senator from Illinois.

Back in 1996, both won election to office, Palin as Mayor of Wasilla, Obama to the Illinois State Senate. And just how did that Democrat win against Alice Palmer, the incumbent Senator of his own party?

The day after New Year’s 1996, operatives for Barack Obama filed into a barren hearing room of the Chicago Board of Election Commissioners.

There they began the tedious process of challenging hundreds of signatures on the nominating petitions of state Sen. Alice Palmer, the longtime progressive activist from the city’s South Side. And they kept challenging petitions until every one of Obama’s four Democratic primary rivals was forced off the ballot.

That’s right, he had her name — as well of the names of his other potential rivals — removed from the ballot.

And Sarah Palin? How did she win election that year? She rain against a three-term incumbent Mayor John Stein and beat him.

Obama gets the incumbent’s name removed from the ballot. Palin defeats him in an open election.

Now, let’s turn to the first election to statewide office.

In 2004, businessman Blair Hull was favored to win the Democratic Illinois Senate nomination, but allegations surfaced that he had abused his ex-wife. His poll numbers plummeted and Obama picked up the slack, easily winning the primary.

Three months after that victory, Jack Ryan, who had won a hotly contested Republican primary, withdrew from the race after a Los Angeles judge ruled that his divorce records be unsealed. The Illinois GOP selected Alan Keyes, a one-time conservative intellectual who had become an extremist crank as their party’s nominee. Obama won in a landslide.

While there is no evidence of any underhanded behavior on Obama’s party, he did get quite lucky.

So, what about Sarah Palin first statewide election?

In the 2006 Republican primary, she challenged the incumbent Governor Frank Murkowski who also faced former Alaska State Senator John Binkley.  Against these two opponents, she won with over 50% of the vote.

Even though the Last Frontier is a Republican state, her works wasn’t over once she won the party’s primary.  In the general election, she faced former governor Tony Knowles, the most popular Democrat in the state. Despite running in a political climate which did not favor the GOP, she beat Knowles by 7 points.  That “despite reported efforts by her own party’s leaders to defeat her” and the presence of a former Republican state representative, Andrew Halcro, on the ballot running as an independent.

Palin ran a number of tough races while Obama either maneuvered to get his opponents off the ballot or just plain got lucky when their scandals enabled him to win almost by default.

Comments

  2. You would have a hard time convincing me that Sarah Palin is essentially “a political animal.”

    Conversely, you would have a hard time convincing me that Barack Obama is NOT essentially a political animal.

    Obama clearly looked at his face in the mirror and said I will use this complexion to become President. He is the ultimate affirmative action consumer and he slapped POTUS on his business plan a long time ago.

    Obviously, Sarah Palin didn’t run for governor because she wanted to redecorate the office. She had it in her mind to get things done and to set things right.

    Sarah Palin has gone where the winds of fortune and strong character have taken her. The left is frantically scurrying about trying to find a disingenuous act on her part so they can burn her at the stake.

    Meanwhile, they laud their Messiah for his promise and potential. What a slobbering school of sycophants they have shown themselves to be.

    In my world, “potential” is code for “ain’t done squat.”

  4. I consider myself to be not really political. That being said, I must congratulate the Republicans for this bold choice.

    If 2000 and 2004 are any example, the way to win an American election is to appeal to the lowest common denominator.

    Picking a gun toting, bible thumping woman is brilliant. Too bad that she is not fat and unattractive, there would have been a grand slam.

  5. Glad to see you’ve become so enthusiastic about Palin. I was hoping McCain would pick her a long time ago and am surprised as anyone that he pulled the trigger.

  9. You forgot to mention how she lauged when her supporters called her (cancer survr opponent “a cancer” and “a b###h” classy!
    or how she killed a wind farm and a clean coal plant.
    Or how McCain only met her once or twice!
    Oh yeah, troopergate too!
    Yup.
    She is awesome! For the next pres. Obama!

    As I said before, the left is giddy with this choice…

    Anyone see McCain and her together? Yikes! Talk about uncomfy!

    HA!

  10. I read a comment on another blog (I forget which one, and I don’t know who said it), but it was such a classic line, I thought it was worth quoting here. Although, as some other comments point out, as the governor of a state with two foreign borders who has negotiated a pipeline deal with one of those countries, she has more foreign negotiation experience than most members of commerce, there will be those who still complain about her lack of credentials in this area. To those folks, there need be only one rejoinder: “Fortunately there’s still time to get her on a flight to Berlin so she can give a speech in Europe.”

  14. So, the left is so “giddy” about the choice of Palin that they’re going to spend the next few weeks trumping up a scandal, the “victim” of which is a state trooper who tasered his stepson and threatened his wife and father-in-law with violence?

    All for the sake of smearing the reputation of a successful woman, who happens to be a mother of five?

    Yeah, that should totally win over the soccer mom vote.

  15. What smear? Its about her misuse of power, her secrecy and her lieing about it. Then she blamed her aides.
    Classic!
    Wait..now I understand why you like her! She is just like the current admin!

  16. the mayor of jacksonville, florida has more executive experience and savvy than the governor of florida. grampa john would have done better to opt for that. the lberals are a shoe in this fall…… pray for the folks in the way of the wrath of god.

  17. So, “secrecy” is now an issue with the campaign who tried to block access to the Annenberg Challenge collection of documents? “Secrecy” is now a problem with a campaign that refuses to release its candidate’s medical records? “Lying” is a problem with a candidate who can’t keep his story straight on why he opposed a bill outlawing infanticide? Lying is a problem for a candidate who claims the unrepentant terrorist he sat on two boards with for six years and in whose living room he launched his political career is “just some guy from my neighborhood I barely know?”

    Yeah, The Obama’s honesty ranks right up there with his experience.

  19. Um, do some of the Palin-critics commenting to this post want to address its actual content. I mean, it’s about a woman who takes on incumbents, even from her own party and wins while Barack moves to get them removed from the ballot.

  20. V the K, you forgot to mention that the guy illegally shot a moose.

    I love it how the Dems all claim to be for the ‘little guy’. But you notice they really don’t mean it. They make comparisons to small cities in large states and claim that being a mayor of such places is so much more impressive than being a governor of a very important if remote state.

    On the personal side, a woman can do and be anything she wants – except for being a mom and a successful politician. Since they are the party of abortion that is not surprising in the least.

  21. GPW, trying to change the subject when the facts are not on their side is standard leftist operating procedure.

    An argument a leftist could make is that Chicago politics are dirtier and for higher stakes than Alaska politics. (Because, you know, as the Obama campaign indicated in their “town of 9000” sneer, unless you live in one of the three largest cities in the USA, you’re a dumb hick.) So, Obama had to be play by the harder rules, but that experience makes him a more seasoned political actor than his minimal experience and meager legislative achievements would indicate.

    I think it’s a weak argument, but it’s probably the best an Obamunist could make.

  23. And yet, michael, in your other comments, you want to kill Down syndrome babies in a program of Nazi eugenics.

    (If that seems like a strange non-sequitur… well, I’m just trying to speak to michael on his level, or a level he might understand.)

  24. Not to really refute that but you did leave out that Obama, and this is a serious claim people make for being a good president, did beat the Clintons in the primary. He was able to do something that hadn’t been done since the 80’s when Bill Clinton lost his Governorship before regaining it later. I would say its comparable to Palin beating out the incumbent Alaska Governor in her primary but its not of the same level.

    I personally don’t think campaigns make you any better at governing but Obama should not be underestimated for what he accomplished this election year.

  26. Hmm, I think that the real reason Sen. Messiah Barack won the nomination is because the “Democrats” have a system that is, well not very Democratic. First, they set up this “proportional” distribution of delegates based on the percentage of votes for said candidate. Then, in caucus states, no one really knows the actual vote totals. Totally goes aginst the secret ballot concept. And when that was all said and done, Sen. Messiah Barack was barely ahead roughly about 100 delegates. But, no worries. In come the “superdelegates” and they get to stick their finger in the air and see which way the wind is blowing and back whoever they want. And, they flocked to Sen. Messiah Barack. No, even though he was not my first choice, Sen. “F— You” McCain won out right the GOP nomination. Some states had caucuses, some based on congressional representation and some winner-take-all. Sorry, an 18,000,000 tie broken by “superdelegates” is not a way to win a party nomination. BTW, GPW, great post and I linked it to my blog!

  27. I personally don’t think campaigns make you any better at governing but Obama should not be underestimated for what he accomplished this election year.

    Go with your first thought there. Applying for medical school is not medical experience; running for Sheriff is not police experience; running for President is self-promotion, not Presidential experience.