Why Obama Could Surge Yet Again
One of the greatest benefits of the liberal membership of my Hollywood gym is that only rarely are the television monitors tuned into FoxNews. Â Nearly always, when they show a news channels, it’s CNN or MSNBC, networks I do not watch in my home. Â (For the record, I rarely watch TV, except to see a friend when she has a guest appearance on a show, to tune into Fox News, or to catch a movie on TCM or program on the History Channel (when it devotes itself to history).)
Yesterday, while doing my cardio, I caught an Obama hagiography on MSNBC. Â What struck me was not so much the bias of the “reporting,” but the power of the Democratic nominee’s image, compelling even when I couldn’t hear him speak (as the volume was turned off). Â When they showed him speaking before an audience or plunging into a crowd of supporters to shake hands, he looked like a leader. My eyes were drawn to the candidate.
Just before bed last night, when I watched a bit of FoxNews before popping in a Hepburn DVD, I saw a bit of Obama’s performance at the ServiceNation Presidential Candidates Forum at Columbia University. This time, I heard him. Combining his charisma with his mellifluous voice, he not only looked like a leader, he sounded like one as well..
He came across as more confident than he had in recent TV appearances. He still has the potential to become a formidable opponent.
Given his and his campaign’s numerous missteps in the past two weeks, many on the right and in the media have noted panic setting in among the Democrats. Obama may be sliding in the polls, yet watching him on TV this week, I saw his potential to pull himself out of his rut. He has a powerful presence; he just needs to figure out how to use it.
While we Republicans should be happy with how well our candidates have performed in the last two weeks, their guy could still out-perform our team. So, let me repeat some advice I offered to my man McCain now nearly six months ago, “Don’t Get Cocky, John!”
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And I have seen the McCain camp already getting too careless and sloppy on the campaign trail. Just as the “computer ad” did to Obama, the trash ads are, sooner or later, going to bite them in the butt. The have to get back to policy issues and stop with the image-making.
Comment by sonicfrog.net — September 14, 2008 @ 5:17 pm - September 14, 2008
I think Obama already has a “problem” with his image that isn’t going to go away anytime soon.
The problem is just that most political pundits are too polite/scared to mention it.
Comment by Ælfhere — September 14, 2008 @ 6:35 pm - September 14, 2008
Here is something to think about. The forum you wrote about showed Obama and McCain in seperate sections, not together. I think that in a debate, Obama will blow it. Especially when there is the one Town Hall style that McCain is a master at. So, I am not cocky but confident that what we are witnessing is another Democrat extremist being put out to pasture.
Comment by Mark J. Goluskin — September 14, 2008 @ 7:52 pm - September 14, 2008
Obama in that setting, “let’s all do charity community organizer work”, sure he’s gonna look comfortable. He is comfortable telling people how they should sacrifice for others. Except he and most liberals don’t follow their own advice. My favorite part was when BHO said “my job is to make government cool again.” He wants to take this behemouth that pees away more money than you can count, he wants to make it fun again. Stunningly ignorant!
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — September 14, 2008 @ 8:12 pm - September 14, 2008
Obama will surge, and win, if two things happen:
1) He drops his negative obsession against Palin and gets back on a positive message.
2) McPalin stumble (or look not-up-to-the-job) in their debate performances.
Both will be needed. Both I give 3-2 odds against, or joint 9-4 odds against. In other words, right now I give roughly 2-1 odds in favor of McPalin. That is still a pretty good chance for Obama.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — September 14, 2008 @ 11:20 pm - September 14, 2008
When was it fun? Sounds like a dangerous person to me.
Or is he talking about the DC cocktail circuit?
Comment by ThatGayConservative — September 14, 2008 @ 11:22 pm - September 14, 2008
he’s using Bill Clinton’s strategy. Talk about the people not himself. Not much there to talk about. McCain needs to stress conservatives are not victims, and will stay that way. Positive messages always. They have to be saving Obama’s baggage for future use, it’s a gold mine. Utube has all the ammo he needs and then some.
Comment by jann — September 15, 2008 @ 4:40 am - September 15, 2008
Obama: Voluntarily surrendering the high ground. When the going gets tough, the weak and empty people betray their principles.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — September 15, 2008 @ 4:41 am - September 15, 2008
It is amazing that with all the talk of Obama’s past associations with corrupt individuals, his on-going relations with groups that openly facilitate vote fraud are not being much examined. (Obama arranged an $800,000 earmark for ACORN).
Comment by V the K — September 15, 2008 @ 5:17 am - September 15, 2008
Those of us excited by the recent success of the McCain-Palin ticket do need to be wary. The fact of the matter is that the majority (or at least a plurality) of Americans would prefer not to give the GOP a third term in the White House. Sure, I still like and approve of Pres. Bush, but that doesn’t change the fact most Americans don’t agree with me. Because of the strong tide against a third GOP term, McCain needs to not only be a better candidate than Obama, but a MUCH better candidate. Currently, McCain is succeeding at being a much better candidate, and I do think he is likely to hold on and win. I think it’s even possible for Obama’s campaign to fall apart and for McCain to win forty states. However, any combination of slip-ups by McCain and successes by Obama that cause mere parity between the two candidates will, I’m afraid, cause Obama to be victorious.
ILC, I totally agree with your two points although I’m not sure that both need to happen for Obama to win.
The debates will be interesting. I’m expecting McCain to soundly defeat Obama in all three debates, but there is hardly any guarantee of that happening. I don’t expect the VP debate to be consequential, given that it normally doesn’t matter and, I’m guessing, will most likely end in a draw anyway, where Palin comes off as likeable but not extremely knowledgeable and Biden comes off as knowledgeable but not nearly as charismatic and, in any case, not exactly God’s gift to the VPOTUS office.
Comment by cme — September 15, 2008 @ 10:28 am - September 15, 2008
Yeah cme, after I wrote that, I had second thoughts about whether both my “points” need to happen. One may be enough to put Obama over the top.
On the other hand, some people are saying, “this settles it”. (click to view) In other words: we’re back to culture wars. McPalin are relatively normal and admirable; in the end one can trust their judgment. Obama is a vacuous, self-important leftie dork; one can’t really trust his. I think there may be something to that.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — September 15, 2008 @ 11:54 am - September 15, 2008
[...] I’ve noted before one of the advantages of my gym is that its largely liberal membership means that if the TV [...]
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