The other downside of fundraisers is that the candidate often produces quotes embarrassing to his candidacy, such as the “clinging” line from San Francisco earlier this year. Even if Obama can abstain from making some gaffes, fundraisers tend to make a candidate look more out of touch with normal folks. I disagree with McCain on campaign finance laws, but not only does he practice what he preaches, he also seems to have made the much wiser decision than Obama with regard to public financing.

Another thing working against Obama is that, as Dan, Michael Medved, and others have pointed out, Obama seems to tire more quickly on the campaign trail than McCain (or, for that matter, Palin). Perhaps the demands of campaigning will catch up with McCain and his 72-year old body sometime in the next two months, and he’ll suddenly start losing it. But so far, the more youthful candidate seems to be the one more worn out by an arduous campaign schedule.

It seems that Florida and even Ohio are not shaping up to be the real battleground states. They seem to be safe for McCain at the moment, and in any case, the way things are shaping up, Colorado and Virginia would lose him the election before Ohio and Florida would. I do think though that Iowa is probably lost, and if he were to win it, he would have already won big elsewhere. New Hampshire may also be tough to win. But if he can win Colorado, Virginia, and either Nevada or New Mexico, I think he wins the election. Those states will, I think, decide the election. And if he can pull in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, it’s tough to see how Obama wins.

You’re right that Obama tends not to get a good return on his ads. The problem for Obama is that I think there’s not a lot of dirt on McCain, and it’s also tough to paint him as a 3rd Bush term when most Americans are aware of how much a thorn in Bush’s side McCain has often been. This could all turn around if Obama finds an effective way to attack McCain, but so far, he seems to be firing blanks. But he also has a problem running positive ads in favor of himself, since his record is so thin and so liberal and he has a hard time talking substance. Obama’s other hope (given that the “hope” campaign theme has grown stale) is the debates, but he’ll have to be really on top of his game to beat McCain in those.

Events may shift the race back in favor of Obama, but right now, he’s in a tough place.