In two successive posts yesterday, Geraghty observed that both the Wall Street Journal poll and the LA Times poll had McCain beating Obama among independents by margins of thirteen points and fifteen points respectively.
Yet, while McCain has slipped in the polls in the past two weeks, the Journal‘s Laura Meckler observes:
The survey finds that Sen. Obama has lost ground with the independent voters who will be crucial to the outcome of the election. They now favor Sen. McCain by 13 percentage points, up from eight points two weeks ago. In early September, just after both parties’ conventions, half of independent voters had a positive image of Sen. Obama; now it’s just 39%. Independents were also less likely to say they could identify with his background and values than they were in early September.
If Obama has lost ground among independents, how has he managed to gain ground among the general electorate? Has there been a stampede of voters away from the GOP and toward the Democrats? Or have the pollsters been oversampling Democrats?
UPDATE: Â Just received an e-mail from a politically independent acquaintance who tends to vote Democratic, but leans toward McCain this year.