Why Proposition 8 Will Lose
When the California Supreme Court mandated gay marriage in the Golden State, I was convinced that the then-proposed initiative for the state ballot defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman would pass. Citizens would resent the court overturning a popular vote and taking this matter out of our hands.
When, however, state Attorney General Jerry Brown changed the ballot language to read that Proposition 8 “eliminates [the] right of same-sex couples to marry.” That heading leads the section on the proposition in the California General Election Official Voter Information Guide.  To read the actual text of the proposed constitutional amendment (”Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California”), you have to go to the end of the guide where the print is much smaller.
Voters would be less likely to vote to eliminate a right than to reaffirm the traditional definition of marriage. With this change, I thought the odds moved in favor of defeat.
But, with a good campaign, the the initiative could still pass. Then, I started hearing from hearing from proponents of the Proposition, noting that the most extreme social conservatives had taken over the “Yes on 8″ campaign.
It seemed extremists would be running the campaigns on both sides of the issue. Opponents would be appealing to their base in West Hollywood, San Francisco and San Diego’s Hillcrest neighborhood.  Proponents to anti-gay (and sometimes even anti-Semitic) churchgoers.
Indeed, the first stuff I saw from the No on 8 folks make me cringe, more left-wing drivel, out to attack any defender of traditional marriage as narrow-minded and mean-spirited. I still refuse to put their bumper sticker on my car (while supporting their cause) because their slogan “equality for all” is a perversion of the American creed.
Yet, their first ad shows they have changed their strategy. Instead of attacking their opponents, they chose to appeal to them by using an older couple to talk about the meaning of marriage.
Now, the Yes folks have released their first ad which, without sound, looks like it was produced for late-night TV on a very limited budget. As a result, the campaign on Proposition 8 seems almost the reverse of that on Prop. 22 eight years ago where the proponents (for traditional marriage) had better ads (making clear that the initiative would not effect the state’s domestic partnership program) while the opponents (those favoring gay marriage) didn’t know how to package their message.
Maybe the No on 8 folks have been reading my posts on gay marriage. This time, they’re making a serious effort to appeal those who are are wary of extending the benefits of an institution which has long served to unite individuals of different genders to same-sex couples. The proponents look like they’re selling a do-it-yourself kit to appeal bad court decisions.
With these two campaigns, the likelihood of the initiative’s defeat increases.
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It will be very interesting to watch. Living in Los Angeles I see a fair amount of lawn signs against Prop. 8. But that doesn’t necessarily mean much, the left seems much more interested in putting up signs.
I too find it interesting that on such an ‘important’ issue the proponents have been so lame. Do they feel that since 8 years ago 60% of voting Californians agreed with them, there is no need to put up a fight?
I read recently that with the big turnout for Obama among Black voters, they may vote for 8, since the Black community is not known for supporting gay rights. Especially since they feel that the Gays have hijacked the civil rights issue.
Either way, I am very interested to see how the vote breaks down.
Comment by Leah — October 2, 2008 @ 4:45 pm - October 2, 2008
why is EQUALITY for ALL a perversion of the American Creed?
Comment by rusty — October 2, 2008 @ 6:51 pm - October 2, 2008
our creed is that we are created equal, that liberty and justice are for all. Equality for all suggests socialism where all outcomes are the same.
Comment by GayPatriotWest — October 2, 2008 @ 7:29 pm - October 2, 2008
I think Brown set this up for a successful lawsuit if Prop 8 wins at the polls. If I understand the CA Constitution correctly, removing an established right takes more than a majority vote to amend the constitution. Eh, either way I am looking forward to the results and have made a donation to Repubs Against 8 to help.
Comment by John — October 2, 2008 @ 7:55 pm - October 2, 2008
rusty,
So under your reading if my GF gets pregnant, I should be able to choose whether or not she has an abortion?
After all, half my DNA is in that kid, surely that would be equal.
Comment by The Livewire — October 2, 2008 @ 8:11 pm - October 2, 2008
If it does fail then some gay couple will go back to another State and will attempt have their marriage recognized. My point is that this issue is going to end up in the United States Supreme Court.
Comment by Swampfox — October 2, 2008 @ 9:00 pm - October 2, 2008
Rusty,
I assume you mean equal treatment under the law, “equality for all” would mean the government takes from those that have and gives to those who dont until everyone is “equal”. You cannot have freedom and equality of outcomes. In America we believe all men are created equal, and that everyone should be treated equally under the law, but aside from that, how much, or how little people succeed is up to them.
But there is nothing about the gay marriage debate that involves equal treatment under the law. every gay man and woman is treated the same under the law as every straight man and woman. There is an institution called marriage that we have codified in order to encourage men and women to engage in a behavior that society deems beneficial to it.
You are not asking to take part in that institution. You are asking that it be changed to encourage a different behavior entirely.
There is no “right” to have one behavior treated the same as an entirely different one. Sorry.
Comment by American Elephant — October 3, 2008 @ 4:07 am - October 3, 2008
Equality and symmetricality are not the same thing. Undifferentiated insalience never helped anyone. But this is about equal access and not symmetricality or undifferentiated insalience.
Comment by Jokie — October 3, 2008 @ 1:18 pm - October 3, 2008
Hey Live Wire,
With 20 years plus as a children’s advocate, educator and health advocate with a special fondness of working with infants and toddlers, coupled with 6 years as a Court Appointed Special Advocate (Guardian ad Litem) and 5 years of working with young disenfranchised youth (runaways, homeless youth) I would like to point out that if you and your girlfriend may need to have some conversations if in the event your sexual activity ends up with an unitended pregnancy or a whoops because the only form of contraception that is 100 % effective is abstinence but oral birth control combined with the use of a condom greatly reduces the possibility of an unintended pregnancy. If you and GF want to discuss the outcomes and shared responsibilities including sharing the financial costs and both of you are in agreement, then you should draft that little piece of paper or you might want to get married in the event that you end up dealing with an unintended pregnancy and you want to father the child on your own.
One piece of information that I always shared with young bucks is that with the ever changing world of DNA testing, young folk are able to call on passive parents for child support. Then the question always came up ’she told me she was on birth control’ and I always said it takes two to make a baby, unless someone was storing sperm on the side for self-imposed insemination. But I am not aware of any such cases. and that goes both ways if you want to seek financial support from your girlfriend.
I relish the young people that have come to call me Uncle Rusty along with the families who consider me just as close as bio family. I have been teacher, co-parent, guardian and best friend to many children. Yes, I am pro choice, but I am quick to point out that ‘every child should be wanted and loved’. Having spent many years working directly with young children who were displaced by parents who were either not ready or invested in parenting and ended up disrupting many young lives I would really like to see more investments by communities, churches and families to help support people experiencing unintended pregnancies. Adoption is a wonderful thing.
To American Elephant,
The Institution of Marriage is in such a stunning state, with over 50% of all sanctioned marriages ending in divorce. And with the other shift in marriage in folk in their senior years, some avoiding marriage to maintain ongoing SS benefits from previous spouse(s) or those who are marrying to enjoy the company of a loved one in their golden years, yet with no option of procreation. . . well, let’s see how things play out. Pull out your history book for a second and see how this great nation codified slavery, had to have women fight for the right to vote, and more recently had to deal with interracial marriage. The most tenacious form of legal segregation, the banning of interracial marriage, was not fully lifted until the last anti-miscegenation laws were struck down in 1967 by the Supreme Court ruling in Loving v. Virginia.
My Parents, married 58 years ago and yet, because my mother was a Catholic and a Democrat, her mother head of the Democratic party of her county and my father, an agnostic Protestant and Mason, married with only 7 people at their ceremony, including the Catholic priest who did the service ‘on the side’.
Marriage will be changing.
Comment by rusty — October 3, 2008 @ 2:23 pm - October 3, 2008
Bald faced lie.
And sorry Rusty, I hate to burst your bubble of victimhood, but interracial marriage is in no way comparable to gay marriage. Interracial couples are still heterosexual couples and thus are capable of providing the benefit that society is trying to encourage in the first place.
Butt sex and baby makin arent morally equivalent. Period. get over it.
Comment by American Elephant — October 3, 2008 @ 3:33 pm - October 3, 2008
So infertile heterosexual couples are not suitable to meet your criterion for marriage. Is procreation a standard to be fullfilled in order to ’sanctify’ the marriage. Then what about marriage that end with no children, either by choice or issues of infertility. And you didn’t say much about those senior marrying without the intention or even the ability to procreate.
Oh sorry, guess those numbers on Divorce might be high. There is a growing trend amongst couples who suffer from irreconciable differences but are choosing to delay divorce because of financial bonds and insurance policies. And there is another camp that verifys that divorce rates aren’t dropping because fewer folk are not actually marrying, they are just cohabitating or sharing the house, since they don’t want to put their children through the horros of divorce, something that most young people share. . .
but American Elephant, sorry if I hit a nerve.
Comment by rusty — October 3, 2008 @ 5:31 pm - October 3, 2008
Hey American Elephant. . .I’ll let you chew on this one:
I would like to talk about passing and gender variance. Gender variance is a term that refers to those expressions of gender (masculinity and femininity) that do not conform to the dominant gender norms of Western culture. (wikipedia). My hope is to explore the issue of racial discrimination under the same arguement that racism is based that a sub-group of any population can express bigotry toward another group, with claims of superiority, and to disenfranchise folk outside of their group, enacting systematic oppression. In the case of people of color, racism allowed the dominant power folk and privileged folk to denigrade folk based on their skin color.
In regards to those who are gender variant, oppression, discrimination and violence are often enacted toward those who fall outside of the gender box. Yes I can pass, but many GLBT folk can’t and shouldn’t have to.
In the gay community, one of the High Holiday’s is Halloween. It is a chance to put on a costume to fit in. . .or to express oneself. (Although I am always curious as to why so many ’straight men’ revel in the fact that they are given permission to dress up in drag. In high schools, at least back in the day, during Spirit weeks athletic boys don cheerleading outfits and girls wear football pads and other masculine costumes.) But there are many folk in the GLBT community that bend the gender rules. Some do it all the time, some do it occassionally and others do it in the privacy of their homes.
With the privilege of having lived in large metro areas, Seattle Portland & DC, and have also circulated in small rural areas, I find it interesting in the GLBT communities and its member’s ability to don regalia for special functions, social outings or even on a basic day to day basis. For those in the Leather community, The Bear Community, The GymBOTS, it is amazing to run into some of these folk in street drag. Yet they are hyper extending their gender variance. It is the same for some of my lesbian sisters, whose entire wardrobe consists of carhart jeans and overalls and workshirts. These wonderful sisters find comfort in wearing these clothes and diss the skirt.
But for many, falling outside of gender norms is just a part of who they are. It is not a choice. It is sometimes an expression of pride and personal acceptance.
Victims of racial discrimination are more than likely able to turn to their families, their churches and pastor, and the neighbors for support if they experience an act of indifference, threats or even violence. On the other hand, many GLBT folk targeted for their gender variance may have been rejected by their family, may not report issues for fear of increased publicity or even loss of job and home.
America is still brewing racism, ageism, ableism, heterosexixm, anti-semitism and on and on and on. Although the bright spot on the horizon comes about with announcements from people like Sarah Palin and even Catholic Joe Biden on their support of GLBT folk. What is disheartening is that within the GLBT community their is the ugly fact that internalized homophobia coupled with the conditioning of heterosexism, people of the GLBT community continue to subject others to same injustices. Take a look at The Color Purple again, when Oprah Winfrey confronts Whoopie in the cornfield asking ‘did you tell harpo to hit me?
Sofia continues: ‘All my life I had to fight. I had to fight my daddy, I had to fight my uncles, I had to fight my brothers. Girl child ain’t safe in a family of mens. But I ain’t never thought I had to fight in my own HOUSE!’
Comment by rusty — October 3, 2008 @ 5:56 pm - October 3, 2008
I would like to talk about passing and gender variance. Gender variance is a term that refers to those expressions of gender (masculinity and femininity) that do not conform to the dominant gender norms of Western culture. (wikipedia). My hope is to explore the issue of racial discrimination under the same arguement that racism is based that a sub-group of any population can express bigotry toward another group, with claims of superiority, and to disenfranchise folk outside of their group, enacting systematic oppression. In the case of people of color, racism allowed the dominant power folk and privileged folk to denigrade folk based on their skin color.
In regards to those who are gender variant, oppression, discrimination and violence are often enacted toward those who fall outside of the gender box. Yes I can pass, but many GLBT folk can’t and shouldn’t have to.
In the gay community, one of the High Holiday’s is Halloween. It is a chance to put on a costume to fit in. . .or to express oneself. (Although I am always curious as to why so many ’straight men’ revel in the fact that they are given permission to dress up in drag. In high schools, at least back in the day, during Spirit weeks athletic boys don cheerleading outfits and girls wear football pads and other masculine costumes.) But there are many folk in the GLBT community that bend the gender rules. Some do it all the time, some do it occassionally and others do it in the privacy of their homes.
With the privilege of having lived in large metro areas, Seattle Portland & DC, and have also circulated in small rural areas, I find it interesting in the GLBT communities and it member’s ability to don regalia for special functions, social outings or even on a basic day to day basis. For those in the Leather community, The Bear Community, The GymBOTS, it is amazing to run into some of these folk in street drag. Yet they are hyper extending their gender variance. It is the same for some of my lesbian sisters, whose entire wardrobe consists of carhart jeans and overalls and workshirts. These wonderful sisters find comfort in wearing these clothes and diss the skirt.
But for many, falling outside of gender norms is just a part of who they are. It is not a choice. It is sometimes an expression of pride and personal acceptance.
Victims of racial discrimination are more than likely able to turn to their families, their churches and pastor, and the neighbors for support if they experience an act of indifference, threats or even violence. On the other hand, many GLBT folk targeted for their gender variance may have been rejected by their family, may not report issues for fear of increased publicity or even loss of job and home.
America is still brewing racism, ageism, ableism, heterosexixm, anti-semitism and on and on and on. Although the bright spot on the horizon comes about with announcements from people like Sarah Palin and even Catholic Joe Biden on their support of GLBT folk. What is disheartening is that within the GLBT community their is the ugly fact that internalized homophobia coupled with the conditioning of heterosexism, people of the GLBT community continue to subject others to same the injustices. Take a look at The Color Purple again, when Oprah Winfrey confronts Whoopie in the cornfield asking ‘did you tell harpo to hit me?
Sofia continues: ‘All my life I had to fight. I had to fight my daddy, I had to fight my uncles, I had to fight my brothers. Girl child ain’t safe in a family of mens. But I ain’t never thought I had to fight in my own HOUSE!’
Comment by rusty — October 3, 2008 @ 5:59 pm - October 3, 2008
Unfortunately for that argument, Rusty, not every heterosexual couple is infertile, and the vast and overwhelming majority are not only fertile, but actively engaging in procreation.
In contrast, every single homosexual couple is completely and totally infertile, unable to produce children that are genetically and biologically unrelated to both of its members.
You need not treat something that usually does naturally result in children in the same fashion that you treat something that will never naturally result in children.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — October 3, 2008 @ 8:43 pm - October 3, 2008
Genetically and biologically related, that is. Typo.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — October 3, 2008 @ 8:43 pm - October 3, 2008
So Mary Cheney didn’t have a son that Dick and Lynne so proudly held in photos released to the media. . .?
Lot’s of folk rely on artificial insemination.
THANKS NDF
Comment by rusty — October 4, 2008 @ 10:27 am - October 4, 2008
[...] seeing the commercials on both sides of Proposition 8, I was ceratin the initiative would fail. The “No” ad was, in my view, far superior, to the “Yes” [...]
Pingback by GayPatriot » Could Proposition 8 Win? — October 8, 2008 @ 10:00 am - October 8, 2008
[...] for defeating Proposition 8 were becoming increasingly bleak. The ad that I once though was so bad it would do cause swing voters to favor of the initiative seems to have had the opposite [...]
Pingback by GayPatriot » Why I was Wrong about Prop 8’s Impending Defeat — October 10, 2008 @ 4:25 pm - October 10, 2008
Exactly. Liberty and justice for all! Not equality of results. Equality of results in life is a sick Left perversion of the American creed, because equality of results can only be achieved by over-government, i.e., by *denying* people liberty and justice, i.e., by tyranny.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — October 10, 2008 @ 6:09 pm - October 10, 2008