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My ‘Endorsements’ & Predictions for Election 2008

I have a big project I’m working on in the real world that is taking up too much of my time for much posting until at least after Election Day. I wanted to make sure that I post the following on how I intend to vote in this election and what I predict will be the results. I’m curious to see how right I am afterwards…

President/Vice President

My Vote: John McCain & Sarah Palin (R).

Prediction: I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe that Barack Obama & Joe Biden (D) will win with about 52% of the popular vote. They will “pick off” some Red States, quite possibly including Virginia. If they do win in the Commonwealth, that in itself will be astounding given that we haven’t gone Democrat in a national election since 1964. I expect the Virginia GOP to blame their loss on the influx of more liberal voters into Northern Virginia and black voters choosing Obama by overwhelming margins. While those are certainly factors in the race here, it would be a serious mistake to ignore the complete ineptitude of the Republican Party in this state. The loss of both US Senate seats, the governor’s mansion and at least one house of the state legislature in recent years should be enough to give one a clue of just how dissatisfied most Virginia voters are with the GOP. The state party hasn’t been listening to the electorate at all and has shown itself time and time again in recent years to be incapable of good governance here. The anger against it here is real and no amount of waving the “pro-family” banner will rally enough voters to save it from yet another defeat at the polls. Pity really since the Democrats in power here, except for the soon-to-be-incoming Mark Warner, are just about ripe for the picking so to speak. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this anger at the state party here also directed towards the national Republican Party by many voters.

If Obama wins it will certainly make history and the thin silver lining may be that the GOP will be given the swift kick in the keister they seem to need to get their act together, but I truly believe he will be a disaster as Commander-in-Chief. Overall I think a majority of the American people have forgotten what the Carter years were like and Obama is about to give us all a very painful refresher.

I, of course, could be wrong about Obama/Biden winning so don’t let anything stop you from voting!

Virginia Senate Race

My Vote: Mark Warner (D).

Prediction: Warner will give Jim Gilmore (R) the trouncing at the polls that he so very much deserves. Warner isn’t your typical Democrat and most voters believe that he was a good governor. As I’ve already said, the Virginia GOP has proven itself to be just as incompetent and in many cases even worse than the national party. That’s quite a feat. This race will be decided on local issues like transportation as well as a general dissatisfaction with the state and national Republican parties. The blame for a loss in this race in my view will rest largely on the Lynchburg-Virginia Beach cabal (i.e., the Religious Right here) that dominates the Virginia GOP. They have yet to learn that most voters just do not care enough about social issues to trade them for good governance. So be it. Let them suffer at the polls as a consequence until they come back to their senses.

Virginia 1st District Congressional Race

My Vote: Nathan Larson (L)

Prediction: Since I live in a heavily Republican district it’s easy to predict that Congressman Rob Wittman (R) will trounce both Larson and the Democrat challenger, Bill S. Day, Jr. While I do not share many of Larson’s beliefs (read about some of them here), I view a vote for him as more of a protest against Wittman’s allegiance to the Lynchburg-Virginia Beach cabal than anything else. As for Mr. Day, I have zero interest in giving Nancy Pelosi, the worst Speaker of the House in years, even the possibility of having another vote.

Marriage Amendments

Predictions only of course since I cannot vote in these states…

Arizona: I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe the amendment will win by a margin of around 3%.

California: Again I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe the amendment will win by a margin of around 5%. That in itself would be a victory of sorts since it would be a lower margin that the anti-gay marriage initiative of 2000 which passed with 60.1% support. Yet even though a majority will support the amendment, it will immediately be challenged in court and probably be tossed out given the state’s peculiar constitutional distinctions between “revision” and “amendment”.

Connecticutt: Actually a call for a constitutional convention that was already on the ballot before the high court’s recent ruling allowing same-sex marriage. If it wins this means a complete re-write of the state constitution that would take months and could include a provision banning same-sex marriage. I have no idea how this will turn out, there may be other reasons why the people of this state may want such a re-write. I’m not familiar at all with their local politics, though I must say that I really dislike their Senator Chris Dodd (D).

Florida: While the amendment will garner a majority of the vote, it will ultimately fail because the 60% threshold will not be met. This issue aside, I find this to be more sensible requirement to amend a state’s basic governing document rather than allowing emotions to trump reason with a mere 50.1% majority.

I, of course, could be wrong about any or all of these so don’t let anything stop you from voting!

See ya’ll at the polls!

– John (Average Gay Joe)

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34 Comments »

  1. The last couple of your opinion pieces you have posted you have been hitting homeruns. What we really have is “The Cult of Obama”………….don’t dare question any thing in his past, for he is the future.

    Comment by Swampfox — October 14, 2008 @ 10:12 pm - October 14, 2008

  2. and the thin silver lining may be that the GOP will be given the swift kick in the keister they seem to need to get their act together,

    I’ve heard this before…like within the past 2-3 years. Something vaguely familiar about it. Whatever it was, it didn’t do us a damn bit of good.

    Got my ballot in the mail today. Really wish it would be meaningful to write in Jindal/Pence.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — October 15, 2008 @ 12:50 am - October 15, 2008

  3. I think McCain/Palin is done. There just seems to be a complete disconnect with the voters. Much of the legitimate issues regarding Obama and his past are not getting the traction and examination they should be. The MSM will not cover them and when they do, the Obama team will give a glib answer and the MSM will consider the matter closed. Swampfox mentions the cult around him and that is truly creepy-secular humanism has found a new God. The voters do not seem to care-they want change and do not seem care what they are getting in return.

    All in all, Obama is the spawn of that albatross George W Bush. I have been a Republican for long time-the last Democrat I voted for a federal office was Henry Jackson. I think George Bush’s extreme laissez faire economic policies, dubious reasons for going to Iraq and being in thrall of social conservatives (Terry Schiavo, Harriet Myers and FMA come to mind) and having a rubber stamp congress for the first six years have been absolutely disastrous for the GOP. It may be years (think Tories in the UK) before we recover. What is left of the GOP caucus in congress next year should look long and hard at its leaders and embark on a complete housecleaning.

    The only thing more disastrous for our nation will be an Obamanation and its minions.

    Its perhap time for us to concentrate on our local issues and legislators to see what can be salvaged.

    Comment by LCRW — October 15, 2008 @ 12:56 am - October 15, 2008

  4. Because of Northern Virginia’s increasing dominance over the rest of the state, the Commonwealth is unlikely to ever go back to the Republican stronghold it once was. And the way Obama is dominating the airwaves here in DC, I think it’s likely Virginia will go for Obama. According to the Politico, in the first three weeks of September, Obama ran 1,342 commercials on DC broadcast stations. McCain ran 8. McCain has just been completely dark in Northern Virginia, something I noticed long before I read the Politico article tonight.

    Comment by Erik — October 15, 2008 @ 2:24 am - October 15, 2008

  5. Beyond the election predictions, let me predict that everything the leftists lied about during the Bush administration will be true in an Obama administration.

    - The president will be an incompetent, out-of-touch, not-too-bright elitist.

    - The president will lie repeatedly, and an uninquisitive lapdog media will let him get away with it.

    - People will lose Constitutional rights through the Fairness Doctrine, and through Justice Department investigations and IRS audits of Obama critics.

    - The president will be an empty suit, manipulated by powerful people who pull the strings behind the scenes.

    - Corruption throughout the White House and the Congress will be rampant.

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 7:07 am - October 15, 2008

  6. Oh, and one more prediction, Obama will (continue to) be supported by blind Obamabots who will question nothing he does … exactly like the left accused Bush supporters of doing.

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 7:14 am - October 15, 2008

  7. V the K. I totally agree again…the sad part is that in 2000 Dems said Bush was inexperienced and not Commander in Chief material.

    Now the same arguments are used against Obama and the Dems have drunk the Obama Kool Aid and I predict you are correct that he will win and the Dems will do what they accused the GOP of becoming..corrupt, an inept President etc.

    I am hoping for 2012 and a one term Obamanation since he will govern the way Carter did and Congress will run rough shod over him.

    Unfortunately, with spinmeisters branding the Chosen One 24/7 for the next 4 years, we could be stuck with The Chosen One for 8 yrs.

    As to Bobby Jindal, I doubt he will run for President in 2012..in November 2011 he is up for re election as LA Governor and then he would have to pivot around and have a fully operational run for President, which he would have to start in 2011 or 2010.

    I think he would be a great VP with Palin at the head of the ticket…..as to Palin it depends upon whether the GOP throws her under the proverbial pink bus but I still hope she is the GOP nominee in 2012 because I believe she could beat Obama the way Reagan beat Carter in 1980.

    but a lot can happen in 4 years so who knows.

    it is time for the GOP to get modernized and get an agenda together and rebuild from the ground up.

    one more prediction (George W Bush who in today dollars was a worse fiscal liberal then LBJ ever was in spending way too much of our taxpayer dollars) is that Obama will outspend Bush far worse then we could ever dream of as we head deeper into Marxism/Socialism and he will make W look like an extreme fiscal conservative. Obama will have a lot more corruption scandals too…and the Dems will ignore it all as they will have the Congress and WH under their control as they did with Carter and in Clinton’s first 2 yrs as President.

    Comment by Rocket — October 15, 2008 @ 10:53 am - October 15, 2008

  8. Palin-Romney 2012 would be my dream ticket. By 2012, I hope to be living in a swing state where my vote will actually count. And I will do anything to support Palin in 2012. I will max out on contributions, I will volunteer, I’ll do phone banks, road-signs, anything. I won’t turn my own blog into non-stop Obama-bashing, but I am gong to play up Teh Resistance theme.

    We know socialism fails whenever it’s tried. We know what happens when Community Organizers become big city mayors. In crisis comes opportunity, out of a cleansing fire comes hardened steel. We know it’s easier to be in the opposition than in charge. Let’s be bloodied, but unbowed. Pour on! We will endure!

    For the next four years, we dine in Hell!

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 11:09 am - October 15, 2008

  9. Boy, I don’t know guys… McCain has told us there’s nothing to be afraid of in an Obama presidency… that Senator Obama is a decent, family man. I know part of that was in response to “Obama’s an A-rhab” taunt, but still.

    When the top dog nearly tosses in the towel, wanna ya supposed to? Even Palin-the-Magician can’t pull that dog out of a hat.

    Comment by Michigan-Matt — October 15, 2008 @ 11:16 am - October 15, 2008

  10. Here’s some info on the CT Convention process. I lifted it from one of the falsely named “family” groups who of course are pushing it so they can bully through their bigotry. Seems like enough safeguards though that no group would be able to do so.

    “There are two ways a Constitutional Convention may be called in Connecticut. Every twenty years, the Connecticut State Constitution calls for a public vote as to whether a Constitutional Convention should be held. If a majority of voters vote “yes”, then a Constitutional Convention process is begun. The second way a Constitutional Convention can be called is through a two-thirds majority vote of the Connecticut State Legislature. If a Convention process is affirmed in either of these manners, then a Constitutional Convention must be convened within one year of the date of the affirmative vote calling for the Convention. In Connecticut, a majority vote of the State Legislature decides the membership of the Constitutional Convention and when the Convention will be convened. If, at the conclusion of the Constitutional Convention, there are proposals for amendment to the Constitution, those proposals will be presented to the voters in a referendum no later than two months after the conclusion of the Convention. If a majority of voters approve of the proposed change(s) they will become part of the Constitution thirty days after the referendum vote”

    V, your dream ticket is exactly that. A large part of the conservative base will NEVER vote for a Mormon. A woman teamed with a Mormon will not fly in this country for decades. Even longer if the far right manages to gain more control.

    Comment by Dave — October 15, 2008 @ 12:26 pm - October 15, 2008

  11. Swampfox: Thanks. Yeah, he is receiving accolades far beyond what he deserves for having such a spotty record. Of course, that’s just raaaaacist of me to say this I know… ;-)

    TGC: Good point. Yet I think there is something far more significant in this loss than in 2006. The loss of reliably Red States will smart something fierce. Hopeully this will get wiser heads in the GOP to start reforming quickly lest they remain a minority party in Congress AND the White House for many years to come.

    LCRW: I definitely agree that its time for new blood in the Republican leadership. Dump the social cons, or at least the more rabid ones that ignore the rest of the base.

    Erik: Oh, never say never. Virginia may be more purple now but in general I’d that it’s still center-right. This is why Mark Warner is doing so well. Unfortunately the religious social cons run the party here and have driven out as ‘heretics’ all other conservatives. That doesn’t leave the rest us feeling very charitable towards them at election time. In fact, it brings up an “FU” in response. Virginia can still be won by Republicans, but not with the current crop in power.

    VtheK: Agreed.

    Rocket: I hope the GOP gets its act together before 2012, but I have to honest and say that if Obama gets in he’ll probably last 8 years. Depressing, but perhaps they’ll do us all a favor and remove some social issues from the table like DADT.

    Comment by John — October 15, 2008 @ 12:35 pm - October 15, 2008

  12. Yes, the two wings of the GOP will have to come together. (Not to mention, the GOP really needs to build up its state-level party apparatus, but that’s a topic for another time.) But I don’t think you should put all the animus on social conservatives. There are plenty of moderate GOP country-club types who are utterly revolted at the thought of dealing with “religious nuts” who oppose killing babies in the womb as a matter of convenience. They will have to overcome their stubbornness as well.

    Also, can anyone name a GOP moderate that can get 25,000 people to come out and wait in the hot sun for six hours to hear her speak? There is no one. The GOP can’t resurrect around mushy moderation. Someone has to articulate limited government, fiscal conservatism, and national security. And it’s not going to be an Olympia Snowe - Arlen Specter type.

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 1:22 pm - October 15, 2008

  13. But I don’t think you should put all the animus on social conservatives. There are plenty of moderate GOP country-club types who are utterly revolted at the thought of dealing with “religious nuts” who oppose killing babies in the womb as a matter of convenience. They will have to overcome their stubbornness as well.

    I can and I will. They have made a shambles of the Virginia GOP and are some of the most intolerant people around while screaming about how they are supposedly persecuted. No doubt the Rockefeller types deserve criticism as well, after all many social cons weren’t alone in busting the budget during Dubya’s two terms. Some of them, like Snow & Specter whom you mention, might as well be Dems the way they side with them on critical issues. However, you mention one social issue like abortion. That one is perhaps the most important to me as well, but I won’t torpedo a candidate for prez or veep because they are staunchly pro-life. They will and did during the primary this year. Their intransigence on this and gay rights is what torpedoed arguably more worthy candidates for prez like Giuliani & Thompson. Then of course there is Romney, someone I wasn’t crazy about myself but his candidacy was targetted by them mainly because he held to the “wrong” faith. They helped give us the Huckster mini-phenom which came very close to splitting the party before a candidate was even chosen. This is what I’m speaking of, running the GOP as if it truly is supposed to be “God’s Own Party”. That I’ve had enough of and I’m not the only one. One more example, what the hell does evolution have to do with Republican values? Yet on the state and local level in some areas this does come up and frankly makes the whole party look like ignorant boobs.

    Also, can anyone name a GOP moderate that can get 25,000 people to come out and wait in the hot sun for six hours to hear her speak? There is no one.

    Rudy Giuliani. Sarah Palin isn’t exactly your typical social con either, lib rhetoric to the contrary. Also, don’t be swayed by crowds alone. Votes are what matters and the social cons are part of the base - not the entire thing. If appeal is not made to the center the social cons will never be elected, except in a few state and local offices.

    Comment by John — October 15, 2008 @ 2:38 pm - October 15, 2008

  14. **Groan**

    Unless tonight’s a game-changer, I fear the next eight years will be Obama-Biden’s oyster. And unlike the Carter administration, no matter how bad the economy tanks the Dhimmicrats will just point at Bush and their mindless followers will belive them….and eight years from now we’ll still be arguing about ending DADT and DOMA.

    Brace yourselves for confiscatory taxation, useless make-work infastructure projects that make the Big Dig a model of efficiency and cost-constraints, and an ever-increasing nanny-state incapable of dealing with the Economy or an effective foreign policy. Meanwhile we’ll be increasingly surrounded by angry, resentful and nuclear-armed Third World screaming “Down with America”, while our “allies” blinded by their faith in the Chosen One allow their own peoples to fall victims to the Jihad and Dhimminitude.

    Comment by Ted B. (Charging Rhino) — October 15, 2008 @ 3:24 pm - October 15, 2008

  15. I hate to have to remind you all, but it wasn’t the social cons that killed the GOP in 2006. Mark Foley was a member of Christie Todd Wittman’s “Main Street Coalition” of Moderate-to-Liberal Republicans. Moderate Liz Dole spent millions of RSCC dollars defending Lincoln Chaffee from a conservative opponent in the primary… money that could have saved Jim Talent, Conrad Burns, or maybe even George Allen if it had been spent helping them instead of Lincoln Chaffee… who hinted he would jump parties if re-elected.

    There’s plenty of blame to go around. But both sides… conservative and moderate… are going to have to put aside differences. The social cons will have to drop opposition to evolution, the moderates will have to accept some restrictions on abortion. It will help if the moderates stop treating socially conservative people as just dumb hicks. Maybe the horrors of Obamunism will be enough to help them work things out.

    I also disagree, abortion was not Rudy’s only problem. He had a history of supporting severe restrictions on gun ownership, a train wreck of a family life, he endorsed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki for governor, sanctuary cities for illegal aliens, and a flawed strategy that wrote off the small early states. (In other words, he wrote off small state voters as dumb hicks.)

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 3:37 pm - October 15, 2008

  16. And, anyway, when did 25,000 people show up and stand out in the hot sun for hours and hours to hear Giuliani speak? Outside of maybe some post-911 fundraising thing.

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 3:39 pm - October 15, 2008

  17. VdaK notes: “There’s plenty of blame to go around. But both sides… conservative and moderate… are going to have to put aside differences.”

    Couldn’t agree more; bravo. But it’s more than just putting aside differences –it’s where we want to head, the Party’s vision, how we return to political power in the wake of last 8 yrs.

    One of the biggest differences we (real GOPers) all need to put aside is the notion that canablizing GOP office holders because they aren’t “conservative” enough for today’s definition isn’t a winning, pragmatic political strategy. Cutting party strength and letting the opposing team grab the playing field may have set up a Reagan win in 1980, but it spells disaster in 2008. Obama may do for the Democrats and liberal ideology what Reagan did for the GOP and conservatives… and a 25+ yr legacy is a cruel hoax to have played out in order to prove who’s more conservative, more true to core within the GOP.

    The GOP brand wasn’t tarnished by the Foley “scandal” or moderate leadership –that distinction belongs to social conservatives like Tom Delay and others who took the unique opportunity to strike for real reform in our federal govt and instead debased that time chasing self-interest, self aggrandizement and wantonly gluttoness spending that would make a drunken sailor jealous.

    I know this much, though, if McCain-Palin lose, it’ll be the Party faithful inside the GOP who determine where the Party heads in the next 4 yrs and how we get there… not people who have folded their hands and sit out on the sidelines during the single greatest test of democratic leadership in our lifetime. Canablizing office holders and purging the Party of supposed RINOs is a great strategy for selling conservative talk radio time… but it sucks when the result is to capitulate the field to Obama, Biden, Pelosi and Reid.

    Frankly, after 4 or 8 yrs of Obama, the country will be ready for any kind of moderation –not more extreme. And the plurality of voters will have to decide if the GOP of yesteryear is good enough anymore.

    Comment by Michigan-Matt — October 15, 2008 @ 10:10 pm - October 15, 2008

  18. BTW, I agree with your (VdaK’s) assessment of RG’s failures in his bid for the nomination. There was a time when McCain wasn’t considered by some as “Republican” enough… or conservative enough. But when my choice (Romney) didn’t make the cut and McCain did, the pragmatic political animal says it’s time to circle the wagons and fight… not after Election Day.

    Comment by Michigan-Matt — October 15, 2008 @ 10:14 pm - October 15, 2008

  19. I’m not going to let myself get drawn into an argument here, because it’s not easy arguing when people re-write history to suit their narrative. I do think it’s unfair to tarnish all conservatives as being like Tom DeLay, since conservatives like Tom Coburn, Mike Pence, Eric Cantor, and John Shadegg have been quite tough on spending and other issues on down the line. I also think it’s absurd to assert that Mark Foley’s scandal didn’t tarnish the Republican brand.

    But if we’re going to blame the party for tarnishing conservatism, that blame must start at the top. It was President Bush who submitted and signed off on the massive increases in Federal Spending. Bush has governed more like a blue-dog Democrat than a conservative Republican, with a very expansive view of the role of the Federal government.

    But I don’t think finger-pointing and recriminations are going to help rebuild the party. Moderates are going to show they have to stand for something other than disdain for conservatives if the party is going to be rebuilt.

    As far as Obama getting eight years, you people have more faith in socialism than I do, frankly.

    Comment by V the K — October 15, 2008 @ 10:32 pm - October 15, 2008

  20. V the K….I do agree with you that Romney would be a great VP (I really don’t think Gov. Bobby Jindal would run for President and probably not VP..and Romney would be an excellent VP (he ran for the job this time and did well as an attack dog)

    I am worried that as has been said we have 8 yrs of Marxist Nobama and Motor Mouth Joe…..

    The one person that could do bring back America is Palin in 2012….and like you V the K I will all I can to help Sarah Palin get elected President in 2012.

    Comment by Rocket — October 15, 2008 @ 11:01 pm - October 15, 2008

  21. John - I agree with your assessment. The Virginia Republican Party will need to remake itself in the image of New England Republicans - fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. The urbanization of Northern Virginia just will not allow anything else.

    Comment by Erik — October 16, 2008 @ 12:36 am - October 16, 2008

  22. I think Romney would also make an awesome Treasury Secretary, and it would help McCain to say that Romney would be Treasury Secretary in his administration. There’s where McCain’s ego thwarts him again. He’s still bitter about the primary, holds personal animus toward Romney, and probably believes his own rhetoric about “patriotism, not profit.” So, he won’t do it.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 5:04 am - October 16, 2008

  23. If Romney and Palin both spend the next four years making a high-profile case against Obamunism, they will become the leaders of the Resistance, and the party. You can bet your ass no GOP moderate is going to be out there making that case.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 5:05 am - October 16, 2008

  24. and eight years from now we’ll still be arguing about ending DADT and DOMA.

    On DOMA I believe you are right, but hope you aren’t when it comes to DADT. If we are still discussing DADT 8 years from now, well… let’s just say tha the Dems have no excuses after holding both the executive and legislative branches.

    The social cons will have to drop opposition to evolution, the moderates will have to accept some restrictions on abortion.

    Agreed. I’d add though that the social cons are going to have to stop torpedoing candidates like Giuliani who might be more personally liberal socially but was willing to work with them on judges. I’d also add that they are going to have to do better when it comes to gays. Their current position when it comes to the law (I leave their religious beliefs for them to sort out or not) is completely unacceptable.

    I also disagree, abortion was not Rudy’s only problem. He had a history of supporting severe restrictions on gun ownership, a train wreck of a family life, he endorsed Mario Cuomo over George Pataki for governor, sanctuary cities for illegal aliens, and a flawed strategy that wrote off the small early states. (In other words, he wrote off small state voters as dumb hicks.)

    And Gingrich didn’t have a wreck of a family life? There are many cons who are on their second or third marriages, including the current GOP nominee. What about the Gang of 14, “comprehensive immigration reform”, etc.? No, the social cons torpedoed a good candidate because they didn’t a sycophant like the Huckster.

    And, anyway, when did 25,000 people show up and stand out in the hot sun for hours and hours to hear Giuliani speak? Outside of maybe some post-911 fundraising thing.

    When did Palin draw 25,000 people prior to being picked for Veep? Yes, the fact that she’s a woman, and a conservative woman at that, as well as her own interpersonal skills have much to do with this, but so does her being the Veep nominee. Remember Giuliani’s speech at the convention? I have little doubt that the could draw such crowds if he had the nomination.

    The GOP brand wasn’t tarnished by the Foley “scandal” or moderate leadership –that distinction belongs to social conservatives like Tom Delay and others who took the unique opportunity to strike for real reform in our federal govt and instead debased that time chasing self-interest, self aggrandizement and wantonly gluttoness spending that would make a drunken sailor jealous.

    I agree that Delay et al deserve a heap of blame for what has transpired, and Lord knows I’m tired of the social cons and their pet peeves, but VtheK is correct as well when he says that Repulican liberals have some fault in this. Foley was indeed a factor in 2006 but it would have only been a minor blip if the GOP hadn’t of alienated so much of the electorate prior to then through very poor governance.

    But if we’re going to blame the party for tarnishing conservatism, that blame must start at the top. It was President Bush who submitted and signed off on the massive increases in Federal Spending. Bush has governed more like a blue-dog Democrat than a conservative Republican, with a very expansive view of the role of the Federal government.

    Absolutely. The Left certainly went waaaaaay overboard with their loathing of the man, but Bush definitely does deserve the lion’s share of the blame. I like the man personally and he has done some good things as president, but this all does make me wonder sometimes if it might have been better that McCain had won the nomination in 2000 instead of him.

    But I don’t think finger-pointing and recriminations are going to help rebuild the party. Moderates are going to show they have to stand for something other than disdain for conservatives if the party is going to be rebuilt.

    That’s a two-way street, V. Social cons haven’t shown such consideration for Republican moderates. They are excoriated by social cons at every chance.

    As far as Obama getting eight years, you people have more faith in socialism than I do, frankly.

    Believe me, I would love it if Obama were defeated in 2012 but I question whether that will be the case. This is all speculative anyways at the moment since none of us know what will happen over the next 4 years. Besides, we could get the surprise of our lives if McCain somehow pulls it out in the end and eeks into office this year. I seriously doubt that will happen, but who knows?

    John - I agree with your assessment. The Virginia Republican Party will need to remake itself in the image of New England Republicans - fiscally conservative, but socially liberal. The urbanization of Northern Virginia just will not allow anything else.

    Social conservatism isn’t the problem per se, it’s the inflexibility and inability to compromise. Add to this that many social cons want to use the power of government to enforce their views on social matters and frankly I see no difference between them and the Dems on that regard. A social con can easily win in Virginia, but they’d have to be more like Palin, i.e. one who may hold strong personal beliefs but doesn’t seek to use the law to impose them onto the rest of us – especially at the expense of good overall governance. This is the problem the Virginia GOP has had.

    If Romney and Palin both spend the next four years making a high-profile case against Obamunism, they will become the leaders of the Resistance, and the party. You can bet your ass no GOP moderate is going to be out there making that case.

    Not even Giuliani? I think he will.

    Comment by John — October 16, 2008 @ 8:35 am - October 16, 2008

  25. Rudy Giuliani will be 68 in 2012 and 72 in 2016. After this election, I don’t see the Republicans rallying around a really old guy with a lot of liberal baggage again. But I may be wrong. We’ll have to agree to disagree.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 8:52 am - October 16, 2008

  26. Rudy Giuliani will be sixty-eight in 2012 and seventy-two in 2016. If McCain loses this election, it’s hard to see Republicans rallying around another really old moderate guy. I may be wrong, but we will have to agree to disagree.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 8:54 am - October 16, 2008

  27. Giuliani will be sixty-eight in 2012. After McCain and Dole, the Republicans may think the third time’s the charm as far as nominating a moderate geezer, but I would doubt it. I may be wrong. We will have to agree to disagree.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 8:56 am - October 16, 2008

  28. Rudy Giuliani is getting up there in age. He will be sixty-eight in 2012. The Republicans have not had much luck with nominating elderly, non-conservative geezers like Dole and McCain.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 8:58 am - October 16, 2008

  29. We will have to agree to disagree.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 9:00 am - October 16, 2008

  30. In 2012, Rudy will be sixty-eight years old.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 9:01 am - October 16, 2008

  31. The Republicans might be reluctant to nominate another senior citizen for president.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 9:02 am - October 16, 2008

  32. It hasn’t worked out well for them with McCain and Dole.

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 9:03 am - October 16, 2008

  33. (Sorry for posting piecemeal. The filter wouldn’t allow the comment unless I broke it up.)

    Comment by V the K — October 16, 2008 @ 9:04 am - October 16, 2008

  34. http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/issues/2006-fall/decline-fall-american-conservatism.asp

    There is no better description on why the Republican Revolution HAD TO FAIL, it was there was philosophy that was not consistent.
    If that will not change you end up running for limited government but spending and spending again and achieve nothing

    Comment by Bas — October 16, 2008 @ 10:09 pm - October 16, 2008

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