I have a big project I’m working on in the real world that is taking up too much of my time for much posting until at least after Election Day. I wanted to make sure that I post the following on how I intend to vote in this election and what I predict will be the results. I’m curious to see how right I am afterwards…
My Vote: John McCain & Sarah Palin (R).
Prediction: I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe that Barack Obama & Joe Biden (D) will win with about 52% of the popular vote. They will “pick off” some Red States, quite possibly including Virginia. If they do win in the Commonwealth, that in itself will be astounding given that we haven’t gone Democrat in a national election since 1964. I expect the Virginia GOP to blame their loss on the influx of more liberal voters into Northern Virginia and black voters choosing Obama by overwhelming margins. While those are certainly factors in the race here, it would be a serious mistake to ignore the complete ineptitude of the Republican Party in this state. The loss of both US Senate seats, the governor’s mansion and at least one house of the state legislature in recent years should be enough to give one a clue of just how dissatisfied most Virginia voters are with the GOP. The state party hasn’t been listening to the electorate at all and has shown itself time and time again in recent years to be incapable of good governance here. The anger against it here is real and no amount of waving the “pro-family” banner will rally enough voters to save it from yet another defeat at the polls. Pity really since the Democrats in power here, except for the soon-to-be-incoming Mark Warner, are just about ripe for the picking so to speak. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this anger at the state party here also directed towards the national Republican Party by many voters.
If Obama wins it will certainly make history and the thin silver lining may be that the GOP will be given the swift kick in the keister they seem to need to get their act together, but I truly believe he will be a disaster as Commander-in-Chief. Overall I think a majority of the American people have forgotten what the Carter years were like and Obama is about to give us all a very painful refresher.
I, of course, could be wrong about Obama/Biden winning so don’t let anything stop you from voting!
Virginia Senate Race
My Vote: Mark Warner (D).
Prediction: Warner will give Jim Gilmore (R) the trouncing at the polls that he so very much deserves. Warner isn’t your typical Democrat and most voters believe that he was a good governor. As I’ve already said, the Virginia GOP has proven itself to be just as incompetent and in many cases even worse than the national party. That’s quite a feat. This race will be decided on local issues like transportation as well as a general dissatisfaction with the state and national Republican parties. The blame for a loss in this race in my view will rest largely on the Lynchburg-Virginia Beach cabal (i.e., the Religious Right here) that dominates the Virginia GOP. They have yet to learn that most voters just do not care enough about social issues to trade them for good governance. So be it. Let them suffer at the polls as a consequence until they come back to their senses.
Virginia 1st District Congressional Race
My Vote: Nathan Larson (L)
Prediction: Since I live in a heavily Republican district it’s easy to predict that Congressman Rob Wittman (R) will trounce both Larson and the Democrat challenger, Bill S. Day, Jr. While I do not share many of Larson’s beliefs (read about some of them here), I view a vote for him as more of a protest against Wittman’s allegiance to the Lynchburg-Virginia Beach cabal than anything else. As for Mr. Day, I have zero interest in giving Nancy Pelosi, the worst Speaker of the House in years, even the possibility of having another vote.
Predictions only of course since I cannot vote in these states…
Arizona: I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe the amendment will win by a margin of around 3%.
California: Again I sincerely hope that I’m wrong, but I believe the amendment will win by a margin of around 5%. That in itself would be a victory of sorts since it would be a lower margin that the anti-gay marriage initiative of 2000 which passed with 60.1% support. Yet even though a majority will support the amendment, it will immediately be challenged in court and probably be tossed out given the state’s peculiar constitutional distinctions between “revision” and “amendment”.
Connecticutt: Actually a call for a constitutional convention that was already on the ballot before the high court’s recent ruling allowing same-sex marriage. If it wins this means a complete re-write of the state constitution that would take months and could include a provision banning same-sex marriage. I have no idea how this will turn out, there may be other reasons why the people of this state may want such a re-write. I’m not familiar at all with their local politics, though I must say that I really dislike their Senator Chris Dodd (D).
Florida: While the amendment will garner a majority of the vote, it will ultimately fail because the 60% threshold will not be met. This issue aside, I find this to be more sensible requirement to amend a state’s basic governing document rather than allowing emotions to trump reason with a mere 50.1% majority.
I, of course, could be wrong about any or all of these so don’t let anything stop you from voting!
See ya’ll at the polls!
— John (Average Gay Joe)