It has heartened me over the past few days to hear (or read) a number of Republican (and conservative) friends and blog-readers report their “good feeling” about this election, with a number expressing optimism about the outcome. They think John McCain could win this.
I’d always thought the polls exaggerated Obama’s support, but the real question is by how much.
There have been some signs of movement toward the Republican in the campaign’s closing days, particularly in the “swing” states. I have long believed the undecideds would break for McCain (as does Dick Morris). Some may well not be true undecideds, but just voters unwilling to come out against the candidate the media prefers.
Recall that in the Democratic primaries this past spring, the undecideds broke, in some cases by pretty hefty margins, against Obama.
And there will be those, like me in the California Republican primary earlier this year, who vote with their gut. I’ve always thought such “gut-voters” would favor John McCain.
So, to answer the question posed in the title to this post, yes, John McCain can win. Would I bet on it? Given that the odds are longer and the return greater, I just might.