Why McCain Lost (introduction)
I’d been compiling notes for a post on why (I believe) John McCain lost the presidential election.
I’ll make one brief observation before getting to the meat of this post. As I review my own notes, past posts and consider other people’s opinions, I’ll just say, given all Obama’s advantages and McCain’s mistakes, I’m amazed the election was as close as it was.
Anyway, this morning, Glenn linked Ann Althouse’s piece How McCain lost me where she basically assembles her posts offered during the course of the election and concludes with some commentary. I highly recommend it. I think she’s a little harsh in her fourth point (at the end), but, hey, that’s her opinion.
I do, however, share her view on points one (“He did not understand economics, the most important issue”) and three (“He never defined himself as a principled conservative”). They basically correspond to conclusions I have reached. Read the whole thing!
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I’ll get to Ann’s piece in a moment… but watching Palin being savaged by the wolves-with-no-names in the McCain camp is causing me to lose respect for the man.
I thought the military credo was “leave no man behind”… and here’s McCain, standing mute, while his minions smear Sarah Palin who arguably handed him far more votes then he would have otherwise got.
What a jerk.
Comment by SoCalRobert — November 9, 2008 @ 3:05 pm - November 9, 2008
Consider this. The Obama Campaign spent at least $600 million on the general election, helped out by another $350 million from organized labor and another $20 million from ACORN in unofficial “non-partisan” get out the vote efforts. McCain spent $85 million.
You also have to calculate the value of support from the media. Imagine the cost of buying half-hour infomercials on all three broadcast networks every night for six months + full page ads in every newspaper every day for six months + half hour infomercials on three cable news networks, plus Oprah, plus Comedy Central, plus MTV… and you could probably double the amount the campaign raised.
I am not saying this to complain, but I think the RNC needs to rethink its business model. The Republican party will never get support from the media, and it will go into every election with this disadvantage. The GOP needs some fresh thinking, or they will be a permanent minority regardless of what policy positions they take.
Comment by V the K — November 9, 2008 @ 3:09 pm - November 9, 2008
And I agree with SoCalRobert. McCain is a jerk for not supporting Sarah. And apparently, McCain surrounded himself with opportunists who eagerly stab other Republicans in the back in order to curry favor with the media.
Gee, who would have thought such people would be attracted to John “Maverick” McCain.
Comment by V the K — November 9, 2008 @ 3:11 pm - November 9, 2008
I’m going to blame the Mormons of Southern California for McCain’s loss. It seems to be the chic thing to do right now.
Comment by Right Turn — November 9, 2008 @ 4:14 pm - November 9, 2008
I don’t see why conservatives are blaming Sarah Palin for anything. John McCain won more popular votes on November 4th, 2008, than George W. Bush won on November 4th, 2004. So Conservatives didn’t win, so what? You don’t get to run against Al Gore or John Kerry in every election.
Comment by Nurglitch — November 9, 2008 @ 4:17 pm - November 9, 2008
Corrections: John McCain got seven million fewer popular votes than Bush did in 2004, when the election was on November 2, not November 4.
Comment by V the K — November 9, 2008 @ 4:32 pm - November 9, 2008
Althouse’ line of thought is interesting:
She isn’t the only one. There’s no question the Republicans have lost their bearings and become confused about who they are under Bush’s part-meaningless, part-reprehensible “compassionate conservatism”.
For the record, I will grant along with Althouse that Bush has at least defended us from terrorism:
Looks like that is going to be Bush’s positive legacy. And nothing more.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 9, 2008 @ 5:14 pm - November 9, 2008
I think that Bush was a good president and I wish McCain had said so too, but he just couldn’t … up until 2000 they were bitter enemies, and all the bad stuff he said about Bush would have been thrown back at him. He had to use his Maverick personality because it’s his true self. Reinventing himself as a far-right Bush supporter just would not have passed the believability test.
Even so, though, I wish McCain had allowed Bush to play a greater role in the campaign.
Comment by Stopped Clock — November 9, 2008 @ 6:39 pm - November 9, 2008
McCain never defined himself as a principled conservative because he never was one!
Good grief, people! Everyone should’ve known that from day one of the primaries.
Here’s another Ann on McCain’s defeat:
Enough said.
Oh, and can you guess the Ann I quoted?
Comment by Dave — November 9, 2008 @ 7:40 pm - November 9, 2008
Correct, Dave. The voice will always win over the echo.
Comment by V the K — November 9, 2008 @ 7:45 pm - November 9, 2008
Would someone, please, ask McCain about McCain-Feingold’s effect on this this presidential election. Democrats are now talking about even the limiting of political speech by re-instituting the “Fairness Doctrine”
Comment by Swampfox — November 9, 2008 @ 9:02 pm - November 9, 2008
Maybe because it just wasn’t his election to win? McCain was running better than Bush’s approval and better than the generic Republican. He ran the best race he could and it wasn’t until market sank and the economy suddenly contracted that he fell behind. He wasn’t the canidate to run on economic issues, that was Romney. He was winning when it came down to national security and the war but economics was not his battle ground.
Comment by Darkeyedresolve — November 9, 2008 @ 9:09 pm - November 9, 2008
[...] Blaming conservatism, Reagan, Christians, and clingers for the 2008 election results betrays a kind of ignorance for which non-profits raise funds to cure. Obama may have concealed what he stands for (and many who voted for him would not have voted for him had they known his true self), but he clearly stood for something. McCain’s problem was his history of compromise. Everyone knows–and I mean everyone–that people with convictions and who believe truth be on their side won’t compromise. Obama won’t compromise, except on the false promises he made during the campaign. McCain will compromise on anything [Althouse]. (H/T GayPatriot) [...]
Pingback by The last thing conservatism needs is marketing | Hennessy's View — November 9, 2008 @ 9:10 pm - November 9, 2008
Darkeyedresolve, well said, very well said. Nice positive spin on McCain’s defeat.
Comment by GayPatriotWest — November 9, 2008 @ 9:14 pm - November 9, 2008
I think everybodys right. How’s that for noncommittal? But frankly, Republicans and conservatives had almost everything going against them this election.
1. There was no journalism this election. There was a multi-billion dollar “mainstream” media that served as a propaganda machine for Barack Obama and was determined to drag him across the finish line at ANY cost.
2. Obama and friends spent a billion dollars.
3. A large segment of America apparenly believes that Republicans have been in control of congress for the past two years.
4. An extremely unpopular president that refuses to defend himself and his adminsitration. (I would point out that, unlike Hillary for example, whose approval ratings plummet any time she opens her mouth, and go up when she is nowhere to be seen, Bush’s approval ratings do just the opposite, they go up when he defends himself and plummet when he is in hiding)
5. A populist “maverick” offering liberalism “lite” who ran an utterly incompetent, and unfocused campaign.
6. A party, that when handed an economic meltdown caused by liberal policies and a former Democrat president that admits it on camera cant manage to make an issue of it.
7. A party, that when handed the most unpopular congress in American history, cant manage to criticize it or even point out that it is run by Democrats, or how much worse everything has gotten since Democrats took over.
I also wonder if it was a mistake for McCain to accept public financing once Obama made clear he would not. His thinking was that he wouldnt be able to raise more than the public system would have given him, I think he would have been able to raise a lot more.
Now Republicans must start running for 2012 right away. Democrats are going to implement the UN-fairness doctrine, grant amnesty to 20 million illegals, and do everything they can to get those people registered to vote, probably mandate nationwide mail-in voting, and everything else they can think of to make sure they dont lose power again. THAT, and not healthcare, not global warming is at the very top of their agenda. So Republicans will need to raise at the very least $1 billion dollars for a successful 2012 presidential campaign.
Comment by American Elephant — November 9, 2008 @ 11:12 pm - November 9, 2008
#15
Washington liberals were falling all over each other to hand the WH and Congress back to Republicans. Unfortunately, they clearly were not interested.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 10, 2008 @ 1:27 am - November 10, 2008
What’s more, if counfounds me that Republicans would hang Palin out to dry. She was the one doing the job THEY should have been doing. But she’s not a Washington insider and not on the DC cocktail party circuit.
Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 10, 2008 @ 1:29 am - November 10, 2008
The Zero campaigned like Reagan, but now is set to govern like Carter. Let’s see how that works out.
Comment by V the K — November 10, 2008 @ 8:48 am - November 10, 2008
McCain will compromise on anything [Althouse].
What bullsh*t. McCain’s record on earmarks is better than many so-called ‘conservatives’. He understandably takes a strong stand against torture, although the definition is the subject of fierce debate. He has always been strong on defense and his judgment is that of a warrior, not a legacy student. He routinely receives very strong ratings from right-to-life organizations. He is against gay marriage, but not anti-gay and that, to me, is perfect. (Those of you who think that’s a contradiction might want to refer to several Islamic regimes for a refresher on bigotry.) Despite his disagreements with Bush on taxes, his fiscal record is strong — check his ratings in Roll Call.
Do I have problems with some of McCain’s positions? Sure. Do I think the compromising nature of the Senate has infected him to the extent that he could not bring himself to truly oppose his opponent? Yes. Do I think he could have handled the debates more professionally, more graciously, more winningly? Absolutely. Do I think his status as the media’s token Republican chosen because of his projection and exaggeration of a party’s fantastic schism has perhaps given him a reason to misjudge his need to massage his message? You bet.
Let’s begin rebuilding by being honest with ourselves. McCain wasn’t a bad candidate, but his team ran a feckless campaign and he was running against all (and I mean all) odds. It’s strange that those who point the finger of recrimination at McCain and his lack of any principles are many of the ones complaining loudest at other fingers pointed at Palin.
I have one very small request for 2012: Let’s never again nominate someone with the name Bush.
Comment by Ignatius — November 10, 2008 @ 9:46 am - November 10, 2008
I agree with American Elephant. Plus, McCain was not able to articulate a positive message of economic change (i.e. Reagan’s message of we need to get government out of people’s way so that you the citizen can achieve your own dreams and not be taxed and spent to death and in death), have a clear Reaganesque agenda and offer a positive message. It took Sarah Palin to articulate that and that she did well. I honestly like John McCain as a decent and honorable man but deep down inside I voted for him more because I LOVE Sarah Palin, whom I believe offers the right message of we can do this….we are America…and we can achieve Energy Independence, less government, control our budget, cut taxes, stop Islamic terrorism, be safe and secure at home and with a strong national defense.
McCain didn’t help himself by always saying he didn’t understand the economy and that he would have help with that and he never honed a coherent message (Palin’s VP acceptance speech did….McCain’s acceptance speech did not)
add to that and what all of you have said and it wasn’t McCain’s year…plus, it is nearly impossible for one political party to win 3 presidential elections in a row. Add to that and all that was thrown against him and he did pretty well..just not well enough.
Now, it is time to move forward..build the grassroots and add Latinos (Bush did it in 2004) and get back into the Midwest, the West and New England and build again in the Northeast and its time to come into the 21st century…..grass roots person to person, the net roots too, smaller donations, Karl Rove’s build your base (honestly that is exactly what Obama did…he built his base) and do what Karl Rove did, get out the vote as he did in 2004 at the precinct by precinct level and not by using outsiders but by using people from your own community whom you trust to communicate with you.
It is time to build the farm team from the base up and its time for the GOP to also reach out to conservatives again….without regard to whom we are and reach out to Gays, straights, Latinos, African Americans, rural, city, suburban and be united by a sense of principles and purpose and don’t pit group against group.
In some ways, it is finding commonality (i.e. McCain and Bush over reached with immigration reform and should have done border security first) and know the pulse of Americans…ok, Americans accept civil unions…how about offer that to the Gay community including we get Survivor Social Security benefits, no death taxes on partners’ Estates…
it is time for the economic conservatives to combine with not judging personal liberties and as Ronald Reagan would say as he did….I accept everyone into the tent….and there is more that unites us then divides us.
It is time to stop demonizing Palin and stop shooting at each other and time to come up with creative conservative ideals….get back to the roots and bring them into this century….time for the old timers like Boehner to step aside and let the next generation take over….
Newt Gingrich would be a good idea person as RNC Chairman but then tell him stay 4 years and don’t run for President and also bring in someone to help build the base…at the local, county/parish, state and national level….whatever I think of Howard Dean, he did get one thing right…no pun intended..you need a 50 state party and not a regional party (i.e. just the South and some of the West) since that will mean the GOP will be in the wilderness for a long time……Reagan created a 50 state party…the GOP was strong and competitive in every region and was able to say that it came in all regions and had room for all sorts of view points with it being strongly united based upon freedom: economic freedom, personal liberty and a strong national defense, all of which makes every American proud, strong and conservative/center right.
It has worked since the days of Lincoln..time we start to remember that and get to work and stop whining and complaining and start building and stand tall, be proud and be unashamed to be the freedom party….now, come on, every knock is a boost and its time to see the opportunities this will create for all Americans…let’s get to it!
Comment by Rocket — November 10, 2008 @ 10:51 am - November 10, 2008
Close? When one side wins by a margin of 8 million votes, with a 200 vote spread in the electoral college, that’s anything but close. States that Obama won by double digit percentages accounted for 262 of the 270 electoral votes he needed to win.
McCain never had a chance.
The media created story lines foreshadowed a close race until the bitter end. When all along, anyone with a degree of political acumen could see a blow out coming from a mile away.
Comment by Erik — November 10, 2008 @ 3:31 pm - November 10, 2008
I must say, I’m enjoying watching the gay conservative community eat itself alive. Carry on!
Comment by Nurglitch — November 11, 2008 @ 5:10 pm - November 11, 2008
The first step toward rebuilding the GOP is to NOT embrace the excesses of the recent past but to hire a RNC Chair that can speak the right & persuasive language to America, can be positive and appear loyal in his opposition to the Obama-Biden Administration, can keep the 2012 playing field level and fair and competitive for all comers and, most importantly, can reform state Party rules to mandate that GOP primaries are about GOP faithful picking THEIR candidate for the nomination and not a bunch of hoo-hays from the trailer parks in New Hampshire.
Plus, it would help if he had the moral compunction and killer instincts of Lee Atwater. Remember, there’d be no Obama or victory if there hadn’t been a ScreaminHowieDean as DNC Chair first.
Comment by Michigan-Matt — November 12, 2008 @ 9:48 am - November 12, 2008