Last week, when I saw Rasmussen reported that for “the second straight week . . . Republican candidates . . . lead Democrats by a single point this week in the Generic Congressional Ballot,” I noticed, when perusing the actual numbers, that this was not so much a shift to the GOP, but rather a shift from the Democrats.
To note, in Rasmussen’s last pre-election poll (11-02-08), Democrats led 47-41, while last week (05-10-09), they had fallen to a 39-40 deficit. The Democrats had fallen 8 points while the GOP tally was virtually unchanged.
Their most recent poll, conducted May 7–10, splits 32 percent for each party, with 34 percent for independents. When they press the independents for which party they lean towards, it comes out to another split, this time 45 percent for each.
Perhaps, when the Republican Party, just now beginning to show some signs of life, regains some of the credibility it lost when it abandoned the principles which defined it, it can gain from the Democrats’ losses.
For now, it appears, the the American people have lost confidence in both parties. Should that mistrust increase, it can only benefit the party out of power, now the GOP, as it benefitted the Democrats in 2006 and 2008.
Because memories of the most recent Republican President are still fresh, perhaps people still don’t see the GOP as the out-of-power party.