The Fed/CNN/DC elite join with the archangels and proclaim loudly today “the worst is over!”
All Hail Obama! (on CNN’s FRONT homepage)
The Federal Reserve said Wednesday it appears that the U.S. economy has halted the longest period of decline since the Great Depression, although it cautioned that economic activity is likely to remain weak in the near term.
Meanwhile, out in the real world… we know differently:
Retail sales disappointed in July and the number of newly laid-off Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week. The latest government reports reinforced concerns about how quickly consumers will be able to contribute to a broad economic recovery.
“There is really no positive spin to put on these numbers,” Jennifer Lee, an economist with BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. “The U.S. consumer remains very weak. The jobs situation, while slowly improving, is still dismal.”
And this item is buried wayyyyy back in the CNN Money section:
Two key reports Thursday showed one thing: happy days are not here again for American consumers.
Retail sales fell in July after two straight months of gains, the government reported Thursday, a drop that surprised economists. Without car sales from the “Cash for Clunkers,” the numbers would have been even worse.
And Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, reported an unexpected decline in its key measure of U.S. sales.
“From a consumer finance position, people are still struggling,” said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics for Moody’s Economy.com. “Wages have fallen from the previous year and consumers don’t [still] have alternative sources of cash.”
Yes, all hail. You know, those Obama hailstones are really starting to hurt.
-Bruce (GayPatriot)
Foreclosures are up 7% June to July.
How is this contradictory?
We all know, and it is widely acknowledged, that the recovery is in its early stages and there are lots of troubles throughout the economy.
Nonetheless, the recession seems to be over – best estimates are that growth is beginning and will be at around 2.4% in the 3Q – which is really not bad at all.
Its pretty easy for news and politics junkies to get really lost in the weeds of the everyday. I suggest you take a step back and look at the slightly bigger picture. Try to imagine how the historians will see 2009. Or even how all of us will see it as we look back on it from the perspective of next summer.
THe story line will be rather simple and straightforward. Early 2008 the economy slips into recession, and things gradually deteriorate throughout the year. In the fall we have the financial meltdown, which combined with the recession, threatens to toss the economy off the cliff into a depression.
Just in time, Obama comes to the rescue. His wise and steady leadership (hmmm, I love the sound of heads exploding in the morning) he quickly pulls the economy back from the brink, slows the decline, and within 6 months halts it, and helps to start the economy on a growth trajetory. Long before he is in office for a year, the recovery is well underway, and we even begin to see improvement in the lagging indicator of unemployment.
In fact, if things keep going on the present trajectory, I’m betting there will be zero advantage for the opposition in the midterm elections based on economic matters.
Obama will be a very big winner as the recovery takes hold, and in the grand scheme of things, it will look like a very rapid return to economic health. Given absolute and total Republican intransigence on the issue, y’all will not only get zero credit for the coming good times, but lots of bad rep based on being so wrong, again.
Let me summarize Tardo’s spin: “Miniplenty warned previously of a reduction in the chocolate ration. Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia. Spend, baby, Spend!”
Historians will see it as: The last year of Obama’s presidency before inflation took off. Also as: The beginning of the conservative Renaissance in America that ultimately destroyed American socialism.
Tano, you’re so FUNNY!!! ROFL! 🙂
Clue for the insanely clueless:
(continued) $1.8 TRILLION DEFICITS, STRETCHING AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE.
Another clue: TAX HIKES WON’T SOLVE IT BECAUSE (1) OBAMA PROMISED HE WOULDN’T, (2) THEY WOULD DESTROY WHAT’S LEFT OF THE ECONOMY, BRINGING DOWN REVENUE.
Obama is about to reap the whirlwind of 80 years of socialism in the U.S. And I can’t think of any present-day politician who will deserve it more, except maybe Kennedy or Nancy Pelosi.
P.S. I know I’m trying to address rational, human language to a True Believer here – a true nutcase drinker of the Dear Teleprompter’s Kool-Aid. I mean, man oh man! Whew! 🙂 So there might seem to be little point in it. And maybe there is little point in it. Except it’s a moment of fun.
ILC,
“I know I’m trying to address rational, human language to a True Believer here -”
I dont know – I dont see any, y’know, evidence for what you say.
My scenario was based on facts. It is a fact that the economy is no longer shrinking. It is a fact that responsible, sober economists are forecasting 2+% growth in the next quarter. It is a fact that most all economists see things improving from here on out. Including the markets, which have gone up nearly 50% in the last 5 months – an almost unprecedented spurt of growth.
Against this, you claim that there will be inflation – which is a possiblity, but not something that most economists really believe will happen. And then you claim the birth of some new rightwing movement, for which there is zero evidence.
So you can mock me all you want, and spew forth all the standard insults, but as far as I can see, the rational choice is my hypothesis, not yours.
P.P.S. What’s going to be really fun, when we get the “double-dip” recession later in 2010 with inflation ascending to double digits around the same time as the U.S. dollar continues to sink, is watching the leftists change their tune to “You Rethuglicans knew the American economy was f—ed, and threw the 2008 election just to blame it on the Democrats!”
You heard it here first (or actually, in another comment I made a few weeks ago). It’s coming. When Obama’s policies reap the whiirlwind of failure that is coming – and they will, because socialism doesn’t work in reality and the U.S. dollar is already sinking – leftists will claim that Rethuglicans intentionally threw the 2008 election and moved a Democrat into office.
The $1.8 Trillion deficit is invisible to him.
Spend, baby, spend!
No. It isn’t.
To be precise: your scenario is based on an almost insanely clueless Kool-Aid drinker’s ***selection*** of facts. There is a giant set of “other facts” that you’re leaving out. From pity (but also for amusement – knowing the gesture to be futile), I provided a couple of them for you. There are many, many, many more important facts your Kool-Aid-drinking scenario ignores.
ILC,
Here is another suggestion for you.
Go find a graph that shows GDP change. The gov’t puts out quarterly reports, but there is a private firm (sorry cant remember the name) that puts out monthly estimates.
That makes for a nice smooth curve. Now plot out GDP change per month for 2008 and 2009. Then draw a vertical line through late January 2009. Shade the left part of the graph reddish, the right part bluish – to represent Bush administration and Obama administration. Now look at the line in that context.
That is what the historians will see when they study the economy in our times. And the overwheming message that jumps out from that graph is what the common knowledge will be about how things went down.
Hey, I remeber being your position – absolutely gleeful that the President I despised was being blamed for a recession, and his numbers were tanking. Only he didnt just go down to the mid or low fifties. He went down to the mid thirties.
But then the cycle changed, the economy recovered, and he won a landslide reelect just a few years later (thats in the eighties). You are just setting yourselves up for heartbreak, I tell ya!
No Tano, historians will see this graph:
http://www.gaypatriot.net/2009/08/12/its-the-deficit-spending-stupid/
Click on it. Look at it. You’ll be seeing a lot of it. It is why your Dear Leader is doomed. Also we could look at Fed balance sheet graphs, at foreign dollar-holding graphs, and at USD index graphs. They are why Obama is doomed.
One last thought, then I have to go.
There is one way Obama might be able to save his Presidency from the consequences of the incredibly destructive policies that he’s been pursuing: If he starts a war. That would be a game-changer. The ironies would be manifold, of course. He’d have to do it cleverly so it’s not too obvious. And he’d be doing what the Left had always accused (wrongly) Bush of trying to do. And finally, it would be the most destructive policy of all. But hey, Obama is all about destructive, Big Government policies.
(such as literally bribing people to destroy working cars)
I don’t know that Dear Leader is doomed, and I can’t say whether the economy will recover or not. But I can says that these trillion dollar deficits are unsustainable, and the economic model of high taxes + lavish government spending has not worked anywhere it’s tried. (California? New York? Michigan? New Jersey?)
France and Germany are undergoing modest recoveries. They cut taxes and regulation. Coincidence?
Meanwhile, the Obama Regime is now activating tracking cookies on Federal website, a movement even the ACLU is (quietly, of course) opposing. Somehow, I don’t think Tardo or stupidbutt will whine about this the way they whined when Bush’s administration listened in on calls to known terrorists.
If they were stocks, I’d short em all.
The ticking time bomb is the Federal Government’s 80% control of the mortgage market. More likely we’re doomed than out of this mess.
Tano:
I’m curious. *IF* you feel strongly that the economy has turned a corner (and we can certainly quibble about why) then can we inlist your help in getting Congress to cancel the 87% of the Stimulus funds that have not been spent yet?
Or are you in the Krugman camp that says we should “double-down” yet again?
Keep in mind that your personal share of the debt is – as of this minute – is $37,982.
Best wishes,
-MFS
There is abundant historical evidence to suggest ILC’s economic forecast will be accurate. We are entering either a period of stagflation (inflation+economic stagnation) or deflation. Economic stagnation, by the way, is meager GDP growth plus high unemployment.
Tano – Your scenario is based on believing in Obama who has already lied to the country repeatedly — the latest of which was in New Hampshire on Tuesday.
I’d recommend using history as your guide. Let me suggest you study up on the Carter years. Next year we will look at those years as “the good times” in comparison.
And I would simply point out that Tano and his fellow Obama puppets should be required to base “recession” status on the same standard to which they held Bush.
Notice what the puppet Tano and the liar Barack Obama were screaming and whining back in 2004.
In short, even though unemployment had fallen, we’d added more jobs than had been lost, and GDP had been growing for eleven straight quarters, Barack Obama and the Obama party were still shrieking that we were in “recession”.
As is obvious throughout Barack Obama’s education, if life is a biology class, other peoples’ grades should be based on their knowledge of physics and he should get an A because he’s black.
Chairman Zero has virtually shut down energy exploration in the United States, but his administration is loaning $10 Billion in taxpayer money to Brazil to drill for oil there.
MTS,
Actually I take a middle stand between you and Krugman. I think the stimulus will be important in speeding, sustaining and enhancing the recovery. I do not, as of yet, see a need for a second round. Lets hope that is not necessary.
ND30,
I dont know if I will ever forgive you. You made me read through an entire National Review article (blech), searching for the place where I could find Obama and /or myself claiming that we were in a recession in 2004.
In fact, the article is about John Kerry, who claimed that Bush had the worst economic performance since Hoover, but nowhere claims that we were then, in 2004, in recession.
Did I miss something? If not, then you owe me big time for these wasted minutes of my life.
And please, for the sake of the reputation of this site, if for no other reason, please stop with this “black” obession of yours.
“We are entering either a period of stagflation (inflation+economic stagnation) or deflation. Economic stagnation, by the way, is meager GDP growth plus high unemployment.”
What do you base that on? Is it just rooting against America because you fear a Dem getting credit were anything good to happen? Or do you have some wise economists that you refer to – who are prediciting this?
“Your scenario is based on believing in Obama who has already lied to the country repeatedly”
No, it has nothing to do with Obama per se, nor do my predictions depend on his truthfulness. Its not what he says, its the basic realities of the business cycle. The stock market, for example, functions as a place where bets are made as to the near term future of the economy. A market that goes up 50% is very clearly stating that the people who are putting their money on the line believe the economy is facing a recovery.
That doesn’t guarantee that it will happen of course (all there is a lot of psychological confidence that can be mutually reinforcing). But I continue to wonder what gives you the confidenece to predict the opposite.
I can’t believe the uncaring unfeeling liberal Democrats. With record unemployed, millions of children going hungry, people like Tano and Obamateleprompter say things are getting better. The economy isn’t in free fall so everyone should feel better. How out of touch are you liberals? Obamas stimulus pork package is a loser and hasn’t done a thing. What exactly is going to cause this economy to rebound so positively? His tax increases on the productive Americans? His tax on energy use? His destroying the health insurance system that 89% of Americans are happy with? All this liberal happy talk while real Americans are suffering is outrageous! You should be ashamed.
It is a fact that the economy is no longer shrinking.
Says who?
It is a fact that responsible, sober economists are forecasting 2+% growth in the next quarter.
Who are these “sober economists”?
It is a fact that most all economists see things improving from here on out.
Citation Needed
Including the markets, which have gone up nearly 50% in the last 5 months – an almost unprecedented spurt of growth.
The liberals didn’t buy that during the Bush Administration, why should we buy it now? Especially considering Chairman Obama said that he doesn’t pay attention to the markets.
So, if these are “facts” you should have no problem backing up your claims, right?
BTW, how many repos of Cash for Clunkers do you reckon will come in the next 3-4 months?
‘The economy isn’t in free fall so everyone should feel better.”
Lets rephrase that. The economy isn’t in freefall, so therefor it IS better. Since it was in freefall before.
Is the truth too “insensitive’ for you?
Or are trying to pretend that since Dems point out this fact, we are abandoning any further efforts to make things better.
Need I remind you that the big bolus of the stimulus is yet to come?
“Obamas stimulus pork package is a loser and hasn’t done a thing.’
Oooops. That was last months talking point. Events have outrun your spin. Time to find something new.
“The liberals didn’t buy that during the Bush Administration, why should we buy it now?”
May I suggest you buy it or not based on whether it makes sense, rather than whether people you disagree with bought something similar x years ago?
Or are you saying that the liberals during the Bush Administration convinced you that they were right to not buy it, so you are not buying it now?
“BTW, how many repos of Cash for Clunkers do you reckon will come in the next 3-4 months?”
I have no idea. I’ll guess – no more than the average level.
Tano:
Please direct us to one (1) study showing that any part of the stimulus package passed since Obama took office has had any positive effect on slowing the recession.
I am not asking you for anything showing that the recession has turned the corner. I merely want to read and review the data showing that anything Obama and the Democrat Congress has done has had any positive effect whatsoever.
With record unemployed, millions of children going hungry, people like Tano and Obamateleprompter say things are getting better.
Remember what Tardo said. He doesn’t “see any, y’know, evidence” that the economy is anything other than unicorns and rainbows.
16.3% real unemployment… he doesn’t see it.
2 million jobs lost since DumDum’s inauguaration … he doesn’t see them.
Trillion dollar deficits stretching to 2020 and a doubling of the National Debt … he doesn’t see it.
Companies offshoring to escape the USA’s second-highest-in-the-industrialized world corporate tax rates and threats of card check and Draconian (but ineffective) Cap and Trade regulations? He doesn’t see it.
Unsustainable private debt now coupled with unsustainable public debt … he doesn’t see it.
I can see where the economy is looking a little better… like the way a credit-fueled spending binge can make someone appear affluent just before they file for bankruptcy. I haven’t seen anything that persuades me that this course of massive public spending and debt is sustainable.
Or are you saying that the liberals during the Bush Administration convinced you that they were right to not buy it, so you are not buying it now?
I’m saying that douchebag liberals like yourself have flip-flopped. I’m also saying that the liberals lied for 8 years trying desperately to convince Americans that we were in a depression. Now that we’re in one of their own making, we’re on the fast track to recovery.
Oooops. That was last months talking point. Events have outrun your spin. Time to find something new.
Really?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203863204574346512956227346.html
Maybe you could find that evidence of the 485,000 jobs.
Thanks for answering my question as to who the “sober economists” are.
Tano,
Take your time. I am sure you will turn up some incredible evidence soon.
Obama was suppose to bring us hope and change. 3 million souls have lost their jobs since his election. How many have lost their homes? He hasn’t done crap since he’s been in office. The calousness of his supporters with their rosey outlook is gross. Like no one is suffering. Instead of cutting peoples taxes and fees to jump start the economy like Kennedy, Reagan and Bush did. He increases government and burdens the Amercan economy. Every newborn now has $50,000 of Obama debt to pay off. That is a statistic to enblazen on every Obama bumper stickered car. Thanks Mr President, thanks a lot.
“I’m saying that douchebag liberals like yourself have flip-flopped.”
You are so funny. You apparantly don’t realize that to the extent this is true, that you have simply flipped along with the liberals (taking the opposite position both times, of course).
So either both you and these liberals are hypocrites, or neither. Can’t be one without the other.
“Christina Romer…proclaimed … that the stimulus package has saved “about 485,000 jobs” since February.”
“The following day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 247,000 Americans lost their jobs in July.”
Well, given that about 600,000 jobs a month, on average, were lost in the first four months of the year, and the loss has slowed to 247,000, I think there is a prima facie case right there that things are getting better.
I know this is all tricky and complicated and all, but employment really is the lagging statistic in a recovery, for lots of rather obvious reasons. Is there anything conceivable that Obama could have done differently to slow the unemployment picture quicker than he has?
Well, theroetically yes. But I guarantee you, absolutely, that all conservatives would have been opposed to such measures. Hell, you even opposed the stimulus for chirssakes, and now you think you have ANY STANDING whatsoever to complain that unemployment is still high???
“The calousness of his supporters with their rosey outlook is gross. Like no one is suffering.”
Sorry Gene, but this is just incoherent.
Since when does a beleif that things will get better equate to a denial that things are bad now??
You are making no sense whatsoever. Why would the administration even bother to be optimistic about the future if they didnt realize how bad things are now?
“Instead of cutting peoples taxes and fees”
Oh geez. Like maybe you managed to overlook the inconvenient fact that at least a third of the stimulus was tax cuts?
“to jump start the economy like Kennedy, Reagan and Bush did.”
Like Reagan did? Tell me dear Gene, when exactly did the recession under Reagan come to an end? How long did it take? What was the unemployment rate at its peak?
Why not be a stand up guy and give Obama at least something approximating the time that it took for things to get better under Reagan.
heliotrope,
Sorry, but I have been away all day – just come home tired -its late (Im in the East). I responded to a few of those who addressed comments to me, but I dont really have the time to do research for you.
THat the economy is turning around is a pretty widespread understanding I am sure you dont need me to find people who say this – it is the common understandning amongst almost all economists i have heard from over the past few weeks.
That the stimulus has played a part in this seems rather obvious to me, but there are actual arguments out ther making the case. As I said, I dont have the time to research it for you now. If you are having trouble find these things, maybe I can find the time to help you out over the next few days.
Jobless claims still headed up, retail sales still headed down:
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/08/13/jobless-claims-jump-retail-sales-fall/
Well, given that about 600,000 jobs a month, on average, were lost in the first four months of the year, and the loss has slowed to 247,000, I think there is a prima facie case right there that things are getting better.
OR they shed all the jobs they can afford to lose which is no indication at all that things are getting better.
Is there anything conceivable that Obama could have done differently to slow the unemployment picture quicker than he has?
He could have cut taxes, give people THEIR money to do with as THEY seem fit, and he could have at least temporarily suspended the Capital Gains Tax. We could have ended this months ago, but…
But I guarantee you, absolutely, that all conservatives would have been opposed to such measures.
Oh. Better to screw the American people and bury them in debt than to piss off the Conservatives. And since when has he given a damn about us, or anybody else for that matter.
Hell, you even opposed the stimulus for chirssakes, and now you think you have ANY STANDING whatsoever to complain that unemployment is still high???
Yep. There was nothing stimulating about the porkulus. Hasn’t provided the jobs that were touted.
Oh geez. Like maybe you managed to overlook the inconvenient fact that at least a third of the stimulus was tax cuts?
Such as……..?
You do know there’s a difference between tax cuts and tax credits, right?
Tano,
Comparing the bravado of your #2, #7, #11, #22, and #25 I am clearly disappointed that you were unable to meet the flimsy test I laid down in #27.
I thought you might be striving to be the ” ‘Bama Bob” for this administration. But, not being able to cobble together a little Krugman and Rich blather to substantiate your full blown rapture means that you will probably not get the ” ‘Bama Bob” job of cheerful news spokesman. Pity, that, you gave it such a good shot.
You do know there’s a difference between tax cuts and tax credits, right?
No, he doesn’t, TGC.
What Obama puppets lie about constantly is that Obama “cut taxes”. What he did was simply change the rules so that you are assessed a portion of your payroll taxes at year-end, rather than on every paycheck. As a result, it may look like you’re taking home more, but at year-end, you’re still responsible for that additional amount.
The reason Obama puppets like “tax credits” is because you still collect the tax, which means you choose who gets the credit. In contrast, with a tax CUT, the money never flows into government hands, which means it can’t be “redistributed”.
Tano,
you quote Christina Roma? Really. Sorry but that lady is not the best out there as far as economists go unless the USA has no one of the caliber of the old economists who knew what they were doing.
Ditto for that dickhead Geithner, the know it all who caused the Japanese economy to tank instead of recover during the 1990s.
The fact is we are now heading for a period of stagflation where there is a continuing rise in unemployment and a rise in inflation caused by bad government policy.
I have no respect at all for Roma, Geithner or Krugman when it comes to economics. I have a lot of respect for Keynes and these people are not, I repeat not, following Keynesian theory.
The “stimulus” was nothing but pork. It was not the right prescription for a problem that was caused by Democrat policy in the first place. – the housing crisis or housing bubble was caused by Carter and those who came after him. The Democrat Congress refused to pass legislation that would have corrected what was happening. Obummer actually advocated for the system that was put in place where people who did not have a deposit and who could not afford to pay back a mortgage were given mortgages.
The failure is there because of Democrat socialism and the failure of Republicans to ensure that there were proper checks and balances.
So every time someone says something positive about our economy youre going to cry about them being liberal obama hailers? For how long? For his entire 8 terms??? Lets not forget that your party has lead us to these dark times of recession, NOT OURS!!!!
How come BMO seems so bent on reporting only negative financial stories while downplaying every positive gain at every chance they get??? Its because they are completely bias just like the rest of you! You had it in for him since the start because you were so pissy about losing the election. Guess what? Thats democracy!!! He is our commander and chief now. This is America you dumb piece of useless dung!!!!!! Get a clue!
Socialism you say? You mean the bailouts that YOUR president started??? You mean the fact obama saved american companies the only way that was possible??? Socialism you say??? Apparently you have no clue what Socialism actually is. Lets compare Sweden To the US in a comparative list just to make you morons see how truly ignorant you really are. America heading towards Socialism you say? I worry about your mental states when I hear rhetoric like this. I almost feel sorry for you…..but naw.
OUR President, ken? I hate to break it to you, but W was your Presidetnt too, just as Obama is mine now. So I do hope that when critics attacked W in the first eight years of the current decade, you reminded everyone that he was our commander in chief. And do hope as well that you offered the same outburst (particularly at the MSM) every time peoiple downplayed the abundance of economic good news for the better part of W’s terms in office.
Finally, please detail how Republican policies led us to recession, noting specifically what the Democratic Congress elected in 2006, did to thwart them and prevent the recession which began under its watch.
Thanks.