Pelosi’s Last Term as Speaker
I am not yet ready to predict that Republicans will retake the House of Representatives next fall, but if I were a betting man, I just might bet on their triumph. The odds may be long, but with independents increasingly moving away from the Democrats, the stars seem to be aligning for Republican victories next fall.
Looking at those numbers, Chris Stirewalt, Political Editor at the Washington Examiner says if Democrats “can’t find a way to get” those independents “back, the party could be in deep trouble for 2010 and beyond“:
More shocking is that independent voters now favor a Republican-controlled Congress by a four-point margin and would overwhelmingly like to see their own member of the House replaced.
Those are the kinds of numbers you see before electoral hurricanes like 1966 or 1994. And if independents are already at that point after so recently enduring the shoddy performance of the previous GOP majority, it’s a sign of real dissatisfaction. Democrats have grown very jittery about the congressional elections in 2010.
While Michael Barone is not as sanguine as the numbers might suggest, noting the difficult of predicting results in 435 individual races with many challengers yet unknown, he points out “that over the years generic vote questions have tended to understate the ultimate Republican percentage of the popular vote for the House“. Still, he pegs Republican chances at recapturing the House “at well below 50%.”
I grant it’s still early, but will make this one prediction: this is Nancy Pelosi’s last term as Speaker of the House. Should Republicans recapture Congress, of course, she’ll be out of the job, but even if Democrats manage to retain their majority, they will do so with diminished numbers; many in her caucus will be eager to cast her out.
Centrist Democrats are none too pleased with the way she’s been running the show:
Between a tough vote on a climate change bill that many don’t expect to become law and a leftward push on healthcare legislation, Pelosi’s (D-Calif.) critics within her caucus say she’s left the so-called “majority makers” exposed.
“She keeps trying to push an unpopular package,” said Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.), a centrist Blue Dog Democrat, referring to healthcare. “I think it’s fair to say they were better at it before.”
With “84 Democrats who represent districts won by either President George W. Bush in 2004 or Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008″, no wonder she’s feeling the heat. Some of them are certain to be voted out by their constituents next fall, in a year when Republicans (and their allies) will be more energized to vote than the Democrats.
Whether that’s enough to recapture the majority is anybody’s guess. But, should enough of those centrists remain after the 2010 elections, they won’t be eager to keep in power the Speaker who nearly cost them their jobs. They’ll seek someone who’s not such a liberal firebrand and thus less of a lightning rod, less likely to draw voters’ ire to herself and by extension to members of the caucus that elected her.
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I’m not completely convinced she even survives as Speaker until the next election. If these numbers hold and even get worse for Dems, I have to wonder whether part of the game plan to get independents back would be to jettison San Fran Nan as early as next spring.
Comment by Robert — September 24, 2009 @ 2:27 pm - September 24, 2009
First have voted Democrat for 65 YRS.
The only way a Democrat would get my vote in next election is if Sen Diane Feinstein were on the ballot
I would even go so far as to say I would vote for Ralph Nader (and this is bad bad bad ) before I would vote for a Democrat
Rep Pelosi had such a wonderful chance being the first woman to be Speaker of the House and the fact that the Democrats were back in the lead, but no she had to swing so far to the left she ruined all chances of making a mark on this counrtry.
If possible she should be recalled , but she was elected to her seat by people of S.F. and they like her , but can they recall her spot as Speaker.
Our country is going to hell in a hand basket
Comment by Bessie — September 24, 2009 @ 3:46 pm - September 24, 2009
Andrew Gelman (excellent Statistican from Columbia) just posted this today
“It’s still early–and there’s a lot of scatter in those scatterplots–but if the generic polls remain this close, the Republican Party looks to be in good shape in the 2010.”
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2009/09/generic_house_p.html
Comment by GayExPatNorth(Toronto) — September 24, 2009 @ 3:51 pm - September 24, 2009
I think the Democrats have 40 or 50 House seats in districts won by the old man McCain in 2008 right? So right off the bat they are going to have trouble holding those even if the House ran smooth as glass instead of like a High School faux govenment. #1 issue for 2010 and 2012 will be the economy and spending. And the Barack gang can’t lie shoot straight on those. The numbers will be black and white. Now if there is some national security disaster or challenge for these passifist Democrats, it could become a rout in the House and Senate.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — September 24, 2009 @ 5:06 pm - September 24, 2009
I agree with Gene in Penn. Here in House district AL-5, there’s been a democrat in for the past 17 years. This coming election, I’d be willing to bet a republican will take the district handily. If I remember the HSV Times correctly, it went for McCain 65%.
Comment by Paul — September 24, 2009 @ 5:24 pm - September 24, 2009
I would question the “and beyond” part of the quote.
Rove’s permanent majority only lasted about 8 years, and Obama’s permanent majority is about to end in 010.
To start with complacency before we even establish are next permanent majority is not a good sign for the long-term stabability of our permanent majority.
Comment by Mitchell Blatt — September 24, 2009 @ 7:37 pm - September 24, 2009
Have you noticed how politics can be just like any sport you follow!
Teams, rivalry, banter, bitterness, slogans etc etc. It just makes me chuckle when you look at the fragility of human life and what is important to one individual may not be as important to another.
Good article though, thanks for sharing and cheering me up!
Comment by kb — September 25, 2009 @ 9:18 am - September 25, 2009
A Republican victory won’t be worth having, if the Republicans don’t stand on sound principles. Like they did in 1994.
Schiff for Senate. I don’t agree with him on everything, but he is the only guy in the political arena today who seriously tries to tell people the inconvenient truth about the American economy and educate people in fundamental, common-sense principles of economics that have been forgotten.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — September 26, 2009 @ 11:09 am - September 26, 2009