Yahoo! led last night with an article which may have broader implications about the stability of the Iranian regime. Or maybe I’m just reading things into this.
The AP reports that Iran bombing kills 5 Revolutionary Guard leaders. That’s Iran with an “n” not Iraq with a “q”:
A suicide bomber killed five senior commanders of the powerful Revolutionary Guard and at least 37 others Sunday near the Pakistani border in the heartland of a potentially escalating Sunni insurgency.
Emphasis added. That these insurgents could strike the most elite units of the Iranian military suggests that they’ve got some pretty good intelligence capabilities. (Or it just could be dumb luck.)
Could be that they have allies on the inside of the Revolutionary Guard. With divisions appearing among the mullahocracy in the wake of the fraudulent elections in June, this could be a harbinger of great unrest among the Iranian elites.
And let’s not forget the recent crash of Iran’s sole AWACS aircraft last month. Something’s happening in Iran. Maybe a civil war is in the offing?
This may well be the first suicide bomber since 9/11 to target the bad guys.
Suicide bombing is never a good thing. It means that the perpetrators possess the same mentality as their oppressors, who would not hesitate to use suicide bombers if they were in the same position.
While there can be line-blurring, revolution and an insurgency are two different things. Don’t confuse one with the other. I hope that this is just an expression of the frustration of the people, and that it will not become standard operations.
An Iranian von Stauffenberg perhaps?
I read somewhere – sorry, I am not as good about posting links as I used to be – that the suicide bomber was from a Sunni, Baluchi (tribe) group from the southeast corner of Iran – that the U.S. has been in bed with at times.
First of all, to put this particular incident in perspective, it is small potatoes compared to what really might be happening. Yes there is something going on, but this is not that something!!
Second, the IRG members killed by the suicide bomb went to the region to negotiate with the leaders of the tribe. I would say that there are no insiders involved as far as the Iranian Guard is concerned.
Third, this group is associated with the bomb blast at the mosque, in the same region prior to the fraudulent elections. Three men not involved in that bombing were hanged within a few days of the event.
Fourth, yes, it has been rumored that the CIA have given assistance to this tribe in the past.
Fifth, take a good look at the location – border of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Now the thing is that I am waiting to hear confirmation of a rumor relating to the health,or otherwise of the Grand Poohbah Khamenei. If the rumor proves to be true then we have a real game changing situation which could go a number of different ways. It is possible that there will be a power struggle. No need to say more right now.
An Iranian von Stauffenberg perhaps?
God I hope not.
ILC is right, this is Sunni based group that goes under several names.
But they are not the “good guys” I have seen reports suggesting they have strong links to Al Qaeda and train in Afghan/Pakistan camps.
If the CIA is still working with these guys, we are in deep, deep trouble.
They are hated by the Shiite majority and the Gov has tried to link the protesters to those guys. In fact any move by these groups is bad for the pro-democracy movement because it allows the gov to strengthen their arguments of a connection between groups.
All the more reason to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. The last thing we need in another unstable country with nukes.
“All the more reason to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability.”
The only way we could eliminate it is boots on the ground. Air strikes would maybe set them back 2-6 months. Their bunkers are just too deep and too protected.
And, as it happens, we have bases in Iraq and Afghanistan, two countries bordering Iran.
The smart people here will understand what that means about the advantages gained for America by Bush-Cheney’s long-term security strategy. gillie, being not one of them, will not. And Obama, being like gillie, will most likely throw away those hard-won advantages.
#8: I’m sure you realize this, ILC, but what gillie is really saying (and what the Obama Administration will ultimately say) is that we can and should do NOTHING because air strikes would be ineffectual and a ground strike might lead to civilian casualties. Plus, Obama won’t even address any pressure to take military action until it is confirmed that Iran has nuclear capability so that his decision to do NOTHING can be supported by the rationale that taking any military action is an unacceptable risk because it might provoke Iran to actually USE its nuclear weapons. This has been the plan from day one.
Planned hand-wringing. Planned dithering. Golly, if you didn’t know better, you might almost think they were working for Iran.
We have a next-generation bunker-buster called the MOP. It passed its fit-test on the B-2 this summer, and will be ready to deploy by the end of the year. Those bunkers won’t be “too deep and too protected” for long.