If polling trends for the past few weeks hold, then neither the Democratic nominee for Governor of New Jersey nor the party’s candidate for Governor of Virginia will get more than 50% of the vote in balloting a week from today, though the former, incumbent Jon Corzine, could win if a third party candidate, Chris Daggett, siphons off enough of the anti-incumbent vote.
In the Commonwealth, not only is Democrat Creigh Deeds down, but so are the two candidates running with him for statewide office, Lt. Governor candidate Jody Wagner and Attorney General nominee Steve Shannon, also poll in the low 40s, with their Republican challengers way ahead.
It’s a three-way race in New York’s 23rd congressional district, with Democrat Bill Owens hovering at or under 30% in most polls, the Republican and Conservative Party nominees take a combined 50% of the vote, with a huge number of undecided.
While there has been less attention paid and fewer polls conducted in the special election to fill the seat of Ellen Tauscher in California’s Tenth Congressional District, a wave of anti-incumbent fever (the Democratic nominee, a career politician, is the current Lt. Governor of the Golden State at a time when people out here don’t much care for career politicians) could put Republican David Harmer over the top. And even if the wave doesn’t put him over the top, the two left-leaning third party candidates could siphon off enough votes to hold the Democrat, John Garamendi, under 50%.
*in the six statewide and special congressional elections next week.