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President Dewey Considers the New Jersey Election

October 30, 2009 by B. Daniel Blatt

Should New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Jon Corzine win reelection next Tuesday, despite approval ratings that remain in the basement, he should be grateful his Republican opponent never considered the advice of former President Thomas E. Dewey after learning the results of the 1948 election.

Oh, whoops, I’m sorry, I forget, I was, uh, looking at the polls from that campaign and saw that Dewey had led the then-not very popular incumbent President Harry S Truman throughout the campaign, edging the Democrat by 5 points in the final pre-election poll.  On Election Day, he lost by nearly that amount.

You see, the aforementioned Mr. Dewey looked at his lead in the polls and said it was good.  He thought it was enough just to be the opposition to an unpopular incumbent.  Wanting a change, people would surely vote for the candidate most likely to beat the Democrat.  He wouldn’t need to wage an aggressive campaign.

Well, Harry Truman ran a spirited campaign.  And the rest is, as they say, history.  Perhaps because Mr. Dewey carried New Jersey by roughly the same margin he led in the last national poll, Corzine’s Republican opponent Chris Christie may have thought Dewey’s strategy of sitting on his lead would work in the Garden State.

The current polls, however, tell a different story, a very tight race, with some surveys giving the hapless Democrat an edge.  Hapless he may be as an executive, but he’s been ruthless on the campaign trail, zinging the Republican with tens of millions of dollars of negative campaign ads.

Perhaps, had Christie run a more aggressive campaign, he might have maintained his lead and be sailing to victory as his fellow partisan Bob McDonnell seems to be doing in Virginia.  Or he might be ahead if he had done a better job spelling out what he intended to do once elected. Earlier this week in the Wall Street Journal‘s Political Diary, John Fund observed that

Mr. Christie has also been hurt by his failure to come up with clear plans for dealing with the state’s No. 1 issue: sky-high property taxes. Only 12% of voters, including a quarter of Republicans, believe he will be able to cut those taxes if elected governor.

This should serve as a reminder to Republicans who want to do well next fall in what promises to be a difficult election for the incumbent party:  you’ve got to stand for something if you want to beat a well-funded Democratic machine.

Filed Under: 2009 Elections, Republican Resolve & Rebuilding

Comments

  1. ThatGayConservative says

    October 30, 2009 at 9:32 pm - October 30, 2009

    Surely Corzine could “dig up” some more voters a la JFK.

  2. Sean A says

    October 30, 2009 at 10:21 pm - October 30, 2009

    I’m sorry to go off topic, but this is at least Halloween-related.

    The perpetually-slobbering, bitterly-ignorant, no-fun-at-all Obamazombie Borg of Alaska has decided on a Halloween costume: perpetually-slobbering, bitterly-ignorant, no-fun-at-all Obamazombie Borg!

    http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/gpc3zs

    Seriously, if I thought this was catching on in the contiguous U.S., I would consider joining a SoCal posse hellbent on MUMMIFYING the homes of anyone caught handing out Obamacare fliers and “Health Reform NOW” stickers to kids on Halloween.

  3. ThatGayConservative says

    October 31, 2009 at 1:42 am - October 31, 2009

    * Give trick-or-treaters a flier about President Obama’s Health Reform Plan and a “Health Reform NOW” sticker.

    * Give them a healthy snack too as a way to remind them about how important health reform is!

    That’s a damn surefire way of getting your car egged.

  4. B. Daniel Blatt says

    October 31, 2009 at 3:42 am - October 31, 2009

    Just followed the link, Sean A. Seems these people have to politicize everything. What empty lives they lead.

    If Obama was what he described himself to be, he would encourage people to celebrate the holiday with their friends and refrain from discussing politics to focus instead on the things we have in common.

    I’m sure many of our blog readers (those who agree with the general tenor of our political arguments) often socialize with their non-conservative friends and do so without politicizing the shindig.

  5. ThatGayConservative says

    October 31, 2009 at 5:26 am - October 31, 2009

    I’m sure many of our blog readers (those who agree with the general tenor of our political arguments) often socialize with their non-conservative friends and do so without politicizing the shindig.

    Aye. What could be more fun than a liberal Neocomm on Halloween?

  6. Gene in Pennsylvania says

    October 31, 2009 at 10:41 pm - October 31, 2009

    Some of the Obama liberal Democrat humiliation will be complete Tuesday if the Dems lose in VA by double digets, lose in NY 23, and lose NJ by one vote. The humiliation that began in Copenhagen will only be accelerating. Is it possible anyone but a Democrat could win in dark blue corrupt NJ? Hard to imagine. But typically when the people have had enough of rotten inept Democrat govening they go back to the Republicans to try to clean it up. CA, NYC. Only places like MI, IL, CHI, DETROIT are totally hopeless.

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