Yes, I know the two Democrats are running for Governor in different states, Deeds in Virginia, Corzine in New Jersey. But, polls show each man drawing about the same percentage of votes in his respective state. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Deeds at 41.0, Corzine at 41.3.
Now, what if more late-deciders in Virginia break for the Democrat than do in Jersey. Deeds likely won’t score an upset, but he may come within ten points of Obama’s showing in the Commonwealth last fall. I daresay the Garden State’s incumbent Democratic Governor won’t run that close to his party’s standard bearer in the most recent presidential election.
But, with a third party candidate in the election, that showing could still keep Corzine in Drumthwacket for another four years.
Now, it’s clear with the President’s multiple visit to Jersey on behalf of the embattled incumbent (I believe he’s there now), with one of Obama’s top political aides devoting serious attention to the race, the White House hopes to spin aCorzine win as evidence people have not turned on the president. As Politico’s Ben Smith put it, “the White House desperately wants to win to avert the consequences for its own agenda of a Republican winning in a traditionally Democratic state.”
Even if Corzine wins, he won’t muster more than 42 or 43 percent of the vote, well behind Obama’s showing just one year ago in the Garden State and possibly even behind his fellow partisan in the Old Dominion.
Hardly a sign of confidence in the Democratic Party that.
UPDATE: As a sign of how invested Obama is in the Garden State gubernatorial, the Washington Times reports that by sundown Sunday, the president “will have attended five events for Mr. Corzine’s bid“.