Yes, I know the two Democrats are running for Governor in different states, Deeds in Virginia, Corzine in New Jersey. But, polls show each man drawing about the same percentage of votes in his respective state. The RealClearPolitics average of polls has Deeds at 41.0, Corzine at 41.3.
Now, what if more late-deciders in Virginia break for the Democrat than do in Jersey. Deeds likely won’t score an upset, but he may come within ten points of Obama’s showing in the Commonwealth last fall. I daresay the Garden State’s incumbent Democratic Governor won’t run that close to his party’s standard bearer in the most recent presidential election.
But, with a third party candidate in the election, that showing could still keep Corzine in Drumthwacket for another four years.
Now, it’s clear with the President’s multiple visit to Jersey on behalf of the embattled incumbent (I believe he’s there now), with one of Obama’s top political aides devoting serious attention to the race, the White House hopes to spin aCorzine win as evidence people have not turned on the president. As Politico’s Ben Smith put it, “the White House desperately wants to win to avert the consequences for its own agenda of a Republican winning in a traditionally Democratic state.”
Even if Corzine wins, he won’t muster more than 42 or 43 percent of the vote, well behind Obama’s showing just one year ago in the Garden State and possibly even behind his fellow partisan in the Old Dominion.
Hardly a sign of confidence in the Democratic Party that.
UPDATE: As a sign of how invested Obama is in the Garden State gubernatorial, the Washington Times reports that by sundown Sunday, the president “will have attended five events for Mr. Corzine’s bid“.
Dan, you might want to revisit your analysis later, depending on how this plays out:
Paramus man claiming to work for Corzine arrested on drug charges
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/10/paramus_man_claming_to_work_fo.html
That 41% of New Jersians (Jerseyites?) are STILL willing to vote for Corzine despite how blatantly corrupt he is shows how deeply corrupt that state and the Democrat party are.
Sean A, and let’s not forget Christie’s classy use of the “fat” card on his Imus appearance. That could help improve people’s image of him, as most of us tend to like a guy who can laugh at himself, making fun of his own peccadillos and imperfections.
#3: Dan, it’s the one area where conservative candidates consistently outmaneuver liberal candidates: AUTHENTICITY. Conservatives have it while liberals treat it as a political skill to be cultivated and carefully staged. Naturally, it’s one of those things where the more liberals desperately chase it, the more elusive (embarrassingly elusive) it becomes. It was Hillary Clinton’s fatal political flaw and her tenacity to overcome it made it exponentially worse (who could forget that pathetically fake Southern drawl that appeared in Alabama, that crying jag, …) She is, and always will be, authentically inauthentic (and I believe she would forgive Bill a thousand mistresses before she would ever give up an ounce of the seething resentment she feels toward him for having been one of the few liberals that truly mastered what she could not).
2.That 41% of New Jersians (Jerseyites?) are STILL willing to vote for Corzine despite how blatantly corrupt he is shows how deeply corrupt that state and the Democrat party are.
And how awful the equally corrupt Republicans are in this state. It really is equal opportunity here. That’s the reason a 3rd party candidate is doing as well as he is.
NJ being very dark blue, and having the experience of the Al Franken “win” in MN, I’m not sure how the democrats will lose the NJ governors mansion. Don’t they usually just keep counting and counting until they win?
Im not familiar with the Republican candidate. Whats he done that is corrupt?
Pat, from all the stories I’ve read 90% of the corruption comes from the Dems, 10% from GOP. That’s hardly equally corrupt.
Have you decided who you’re voting for?
#8: Actually, Dan, in the most recent round of corruption arrests in New Jersey (bribery to selling organs), the percentage was closer to 98% Democrat and 2% Republican (44 government officials were arrested–43 were Democrats, 1 was a Republican).
CNN’s Wolf Blitzer and Deborah Feyerick reported the story as: “Dozens of public figures, including mayors, are caught in a stunning corruption sweep. They belong to both major parties.” (Blitzer) And: “nearly 30 politicians and public officials, Democrats and Republicans, were rounded up in what prosecutors called the largest sweep of its kind.” (Feyerick)
Charles Gibson (ABC), Katie Couric (CBS), and Brian Williams (NBC), all reported the story on their evening news casts without mentioning party affiliation.
I know. SHOCKER.
Well, Sean A, let’s hope the folk in Jersey know the party affiliation of the corrupt ones. If the numbers were reversed, you can bet they’d be saying that the corrupt ones were overwhelmingly Republican.
If Conzine stays at 43% or less, he will lose.
Right now, Daggett is getting the people who don’t want to vote for Corzine, but won’t vote for a Republican. He’s been trying to be a spoiler for Corzine, but will turn out to be a spoiler against him. 🙂
If Republicans go 4 for 4, Obama’s agenda is dead at least through next November. If they go 3 for 4, that will probably be good enough.
If Hoffman wins, you will see the RINOs all deciding thatObama just isn’t for them. If Corzine loses, you’ll see the Blue Dogs all decide that they need to spend the next year showing their independence.
If Garamendi loses, There will be 50 – 60 Democrats in the House who won’t want to have anything to do with Obama’s agenda.
Greg, how do you figure Daggett will be a spoiler against Corzine?
Optimistic aren’t you! Call me cynical, but i suspect even if they are trounced, they will spin it, the media will support them in that spin, and they will keep right on destroying the country — in fact, they will probably pick up the pace and get more blatantly corrupt, trying to ram through as much of their agenda and trying to cement themselves in power before next fall.
If they lose big, look for the FCC to pass “local control” or “minority ownership” laws right away, look for major shenanigans with the Census, card check will come back…anything they think will help them stay in power! Everything they have done since getting elected has been to keep themselves in power, and it will only get worse if they feel threatened.
6.NJ being very dark blue, and having the experience of the Al Franken “win” in MN, I’m not sure how the democrats will lose the NJ governors mansion. Don’t they usually just keep counting and counting until they win?
Gene, I’m sure that can happen. But since 1981, we’ve had three very close governor races, and they were won by Republicans (Tom Kean once and Christie Whitman twice).
7.Im not familiar with the Republican candidate. Whats he done that is corrupt?
AmericanElephant, there are at least as many ethical clouds hanging over Christie’s head. He shortchanged on taxes (but did admit it was a mistake). He’s been accused of giving no-bid contracts, including John Ashcroft’s law firm, while U.S. Attorney. One of his aide, Michele Brown, was accused of receiving an improper loan from Christie, and failing to report it. She has since resigned from his campaign team. Whether or not there is anything more to this, I don’t know. But I will say this isn’t just Democratic talking points. His main opponent in the primaries, Steve Lonegan, first brought up these allegations.
8.Pat, from all the stories I’ve read 90% of the corruption comes from the Dems, 10% from GOP. That’s hardly equally corrupt.
Dan, with the stats you’ve mentioned, that indeed would not be equally corrupt. I can only tell you from what I hear and see. And I see it on both sides. Right now, it’s probably more Democrat, as there are more Democrats in office throughout the state. But when Republicans were in power, they have lead in the amount of corruption, especially in the county where I live. What I find most disturbing is, in public, they condemn the other party of corruption, among other things, but act like best buddies when the cameras are off.
One thing I give Christie a lot of credit is, as part of his work as U.S. Attorney, a lot of politicians were arrested, and almost all of them are on their way to prison. Almost all of them are Democrats. Fine by me. More of these scum need to be caught and sent to jail.
Have you decided who you’re voting for?
No, but I will most likely be holding my nose and vote for Corzine. While he is, by no means, a stellar candidate, there are some pluses in my view. He is the first governor in a long time to provide some fiscal restraint. Granted, he has been forced to because of the recession, but it appears that he has been using less accounting gimmicks than previous governors, and yes, that includes Kean and Whitman. He has been no worse in trying to solve long term problems that have plagued NJ. These include higher tax rates, property taxes, and car insurance rates. And frankly, I don’t think Christie will do a better job with these. I believe Corzine is stronger on gay rights, although I don’t think Christie will be turning the clock back on that. At the very least, I don’t think he would try to rescind civil unions. There is another issue that is personal (and I’ll have to leave it at that), that favors Corzine.
I don’t think Christie will be terrible for NJ as a whole. In fact, one with conservative views would definitely favor Christie over Corzine, although they probably would have preferred his main primary opponent, Lonegan.
And you’re right that Daggett’s probably a spoiler for Christie, if anything. There are many who are Democrats who don’t want to vote for Corzine, and Daggett gives them that option without having to vote for Christie.
Anyway, it should be interesting tomorrow.