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Is Rahm’s Luck Running Out?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 8:46 pm - November 2, 2009.
Filed under: 2009 Elections,Obama Hopenchange

Politico has a fascinating story of the lengths to which Democrats went to secure Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district tomorrow.  The effort in involved the White House Chief of Staff, New York State’s senior senator, the Speaker of the New York Assembly, the chair of the state Democratic Party and other heavy hitters.  They even dispatched a Long Island Democratic Congressman to the district to meet with the one-time Republican candidate.

Yet, if the latest polls are to be believed, it doesn’t seem to have made much difference.  One poll has the Conservative up by 5 points.  Another has up him by 17.

And this must be causing a lot of angst in the West Wing.  Because it’s pretty clear that White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel was behind his boss’s choice to tap then-Congressman John McHugh as Army Secretary, making his seat ripe for Democratic picking:

Obama won NY-23 last year by five points. So in an open seat race this year, a Democrat should have a good shot. Indeed, that’s precisely why Obama plucked the popular Republican incumbent from the seat to be his Army secretary — Rahm thought it was a likely pick-up. 

With Dede’s endorsement, that task seemed easier.  But, should the Democrat now lose, the White House will have major egg on its face, particularly as Administration officials decrying Hoffman’s success as a sign of the extremism of and rise of the “absolutists” in the GOP.

Seems citizens of this district won by Obama prefer extreme absolutists to the Administration’s man.

Rahm Emanuel may be crowing about locking down the Scozzafava endorsement, but he may not realize  that people don’t always respond to the type of back room political deals he orchestrates.  Chicago politics don’t play all that well in rural strongholds.  Just by securing a candidate’s endorsement doesn’t mean you win all her voters.

His strategy of padding the Democratic majority appears to be backfiring.

Of course the polls could be wrong.



  1. Seems citizens of this district won by Obama prefer extreme absolutists to the Administration’s man.

    Um, wait for Wed AM.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 2, 2009 @ 8:55 pm - November 2, 2009

  2. NY-23 is a very solid Republican district, it will not go Demo. The race to watch is CA-10, where Republican Harmer is within the margin of error. A very strong grass roots effort is underway, with people coming from as far away as LA to walk the neighborhoods and ring doorbells. Garamendi has not even campaigned to any noticeable degree, has no army of volunteers, and seems to think he’s owed the seat. Watch this one, we have 400 volunteers manning phone banks, poll watching, and making a huge get out the vote effort. With any luck, we’re going to smack Nancy Pelosi upside the head.

    Comment by John in Dublin CA — November 2, 2009 @ 9:10 pm - November 2, 2009

  3. Actually in NY 23 and in NJ, Republicans and conservatives best wait a few days until all the Democrats are done counting votes. If it’s a close call don’t count any chickens til all the dead Dems are counted.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — November 2, 2009 @ 9:11 pm - November 2, 2009

  4. We’ve been wondering where the Snowbirds are. I suppose they’ll start showing up after the election. I’m sure they’re flustered that they can’t vote here and there as when there’s a presidential election.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 2, 2009 @ 9:25 pm - November 2, 2009

  5. I think Rahm does not understand the dynamics of sticking his middle finger into a hornet’s nest. He created the opening in NY-23 and he got Scozzafuzzy to flip after his plans went awry. He is great at flipping off those he opposes with great disdain. But conservatives have had a full ration of his dedication to unleashing political beanball. Machine politics does not translate well when there are too many wards to be organized, managed and bought.

    There is a mighty discontent across the land and it is not in search of a Miss Congeniality, a Mr. Moderate or a member of the usual suspects in the shake, grin, promise and shuffle political professional class.

    Comment by heliotrope — November 2, 2009 @ 10:37 pm - November 2, 2009

  6. I was wondering what all this talk about “Chicago politics” was – I guess it means trying to get people to endorse your candidate.

    Scary, that…no wonder they dont do such things in “rural strongholds”…

    Comment by Tano — November 3, 2009 @ 1:52 am - November 3, 2009

  7. Do you even read the posts, Tano, it’s how the Dems went about getting the endorsement. And what it says about how desperate the Democrats are for victory here.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 3, 2009 @ 2:07 am - November 3, 2009

  8. […] Crossposted at GayPatriot. […]

    Pingback by Is Rahm’s Luck Running Out? | Right Wing News — November 3, 2009 @ 3:10 am - November 3, 2009

  9. Scozzafuzzy

    I would think the media would favor a candidate whose name they could pronounce. I’m reminded of Kent Brockman trying to say Kuala Lampur:

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 3, 2009 @ 5:02 am - November 3, 2009

  10. And let’s not forget that Obama’s candidate in Afghanistan lost, so that’s one defeat already.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 3, 2009 @ 7:47 am - November 3, 2009

  11. You forgot Honduras, where it looks like Obama’s canditate for dictator president will get booted out again.

    Funny how Tano’s gone silent on his support for the nutjob. Maybe he got a night time threat from those Jewish microwave techs?

    Comment by The_Livewire — November 3, 2009 @ 8:36 am - November 3, 2009

  12. ‘Do you even read the posts, Tano, it’s how the Dems went about getting the endorsement”

    Yeah Dan, I read the post. The Dems “dispatched heavy hitters”.
    Whoo whoo. Thats right up there with breaking kneecaps, isn’t it….

    Comment by Tano — November 3, 2009 @ 9:25 am - November 3, 2009

  13. […] Blatt ‘85 analyzes the race in […]

    Pingback by Democracy Blogging : EphBlog — November 3, 2009 @ 10:43 am - November 3, 2009

  14. Robo calls, absentee ballots whose signatures don’t match up, typical Democrat dirty tricks from the corrupt Dems. I liked how Corsine called Christie a “fatty”. A liberal Obama Democrat having such trouble winning dark blue NJ. Where oh where did all the Obama magic go, and so fast. hehe

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — November 3, 2009 @ 11:44 am - November 3, 2009

  15. Whoo whoo. Thats right up there with breaking kneecaps, isn’t it….

    And dispatching gang members, SEIU thugs, Black Panthers, ACORN harassers etc. All typical fare from the desperate left.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 3, 2009 @ 3:59 pm - November 3, 2009

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