With the Siena poll showing nearly one in five (18%) of voters in New York’s 23rd congressional district undecided, a strong trend toward Democrat Bill Owens could help him eke out a a victory. But, the small turnout at his rally with the Vice President suggests voters aren’t too fired up about the Democratic candidate–or the Democratic Vice President (or just that the Democrats did a lousy job publicizing the event which suggests they may not have a good ground game prepared for tomorrow).
Given that the Hoffman campaign has generated a lot of enthusiasm, we can be sure their voters will turn out today, but will their enthusiasm be contagious. If so, look for a big victory tonight.
In New Jersey, if the undecideds break according to the traditional pattern, that is, against the incumbent (and so in large enough numbers to make up for the votes made up by Democrat/ACORN/SEIU shenanigans) Christie should carry the day. He could also be helped by supporters of independent Chris Daggett deciding, at the last minute, to switch their support to the Republican, the Corzine challenger with the best shot at unseating the unpopular incumbent.
Note this chart from Pollster.com‘s roundup of polls showing that Daggett peaked a few days ago and has been on a steady downward trend ever since. At the same time, Christie has reversed his decline and been on a steady upward trend perfectly paralleling that of incumbent Jon Corzine (hence its difficulty to see).
Since he and Corzine are advancing at the same rate, that suggest late deciders may break evenly for the two major party candidates.
Last week, offering his two cents on how the undecideds might break in the Garden State, Jim Geraghty suggested that random factors may also influence their decision:
But there’s a school of thought that undecided voters in late October are among the least informed, least aware, and least thoughtful voters out there; people who have tuned out the entirety of the campaigning for months, who didn’t watch the debates, don’t read or watch coverage, and can have their decision influenced by the most unlikely and random factors.
In that sense, Christie stands in good stead. Reports of the Democratic-organized robocalls for the independent candidate won’t play well with independent voters. The drug bust of a Corzine staffer will serve as yet another reminder of the Democrat’s shady associations. And then there was Christie’s joking about his weight on the Imus show last week. That certainly made him out to be a most likable fellow. That could be one of those unlikely and random factors which pushes voters into his camp.
All that said, I expect undecided voters to break for Christie, but wonder if their numbers will be enough to overcome the kind of ground game Democrats have been playing in the Garden State.