Why Doug Hoffman lost
In New Jersey, “union brass knuckles were not enough to carry” New Jersey’s Democratic Governor “over the finish line,” but union support likely made the difference in Bill Owens narrow victory in New York’s 23rd congressional district. Earlier today (Tuesday), when I heard on the news that with Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement meant of the Democrat meant that unions which had previously been divided were now united behind Owens, I felt a disturbance in the force.
The good feeling I had about today’s elections was tarnished a bit. Given the haphazard nature of Hoffman’s campaign, I doubted he had the chance to organize a good ground game, essential to victory in a special election. He may have the enthusiasm, but the unions had the organization. It seems to have paid off. As did Rahm Emanuel’s gamble.
Something else too may have hurt Hoffman. The media attempt to portray him as a right-wing extremist surely hurt him with libertarian voters in the district. They made Scozzafava out to be a moderate and attributed conservative dissatisfaction with the one-time GOP nominee to her “moderate” stands on social issues and not her liberal positions on fiscal one.
The Scozzafava endorsement clearly helped; Owens was leading in Jefferson County, her “strongest territory.” Given that he has represented the area, she has certainly earned the affection of many of her constiuents.
A disappointment, to be sure, but a reminder that, in special election, organization matters.
And as to Nick’s point, I’ll just say that I think Congressman-elect Owens arrives neutered by the results in the Garden State and the margin in the Old Dominion. The political class can’t ignore that the Washington Post’s best efforts notwithstanding, Bob McDonnell won Fairfax County, being, I believe, the first Republican to do so this century. His victory, in short, does nothing to advance the Obama agenda.
While Owens may not have run as far behind Obama as did Corzine and Deeds, he did run three points behind the Democratic presidential nominee.
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I hope Hoffman gets his act together and runs next year. This is only for a year and then they have another election.
I’m much happier with NJ, VA and Westchester county, those are big wins.
Comment by Leah — November 4, 2009 @ 12:46 am - November 4, 2009
Hoffman lost for two simple reasons:
- Scuzzyfavor was a Democrat. She literally wanted the Democrat to win.
- Scuzzyfavor’s name was the (R) on the ticket.
Look at her margin tonight. It’s people who voted for her because she was the designated Republican. (If they were truly fans of hers, and well tuned in, they would have followed her to Owens.) Now add her margin to Hoffman’s and see roughly how he would have done if he were the designated Republican.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 4, 2009 @ 1:01 am - November 4, 2009
P.S. The big loser tonight, after Obama, is Newt. In NY-23 he effectively endorsed a Democrat, an actual turncoat, while lecturing people on Republican party unity. Bad move and what a c-f.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 4, 2009 @ 1:03 am - November 4, 2009
ILC, don’t think his presidential ambitions will be realized.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 4, 2009 @ 1:09 am - November 4, 2009
“I think Congressman-elect Owens arrives neutered by the results in the Garden State and the margin in the Old Dominion.”
Thats the funniest political analysis of the night! Gee, maybe Christie is “neutered’ by the fact that the Dems expanded their majority in the House!
“he did run three points behind the Democratic presidential nominee.”
Oh that seems relevant. How about – how well Owens did relative to the Democratic candidate last year?
Comment by Tano — November 4, 2009 @ 1:20 am - November 4, 2009
Um, Tano, Owens ran three points behind Obama in the district. That’s the appropriate benchmark here.
And the point about his being neutered is that national trends clearly show Americans moving away from Obama’s big-government agenda. The Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia each ran 12 points behind Obama’s total in their respective states, quite a big swing if you ask me.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 4, 2009 @ 1:31 am - November 4, 2009
We all should remember that Tano is screaming and crying tonight over how many racists there are in Virginia and New Jersey.
Because, after all, according to Tano and his Barack Obama, anyone who doesn’t vote for whomever Obama endorses and supports as key to his agenda is a racist.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 4, 2009 @ 1:31 am - November 4, 2009
Hoffman lost because the Republican party in NY-23 didnt learn a damn thing from 2008. Hoffman supporters need to rebound and take over that local party apparatus.
The David Frum-wing of the Republican party is who got resoundingly repudiated by this election.
Comment by American Elephant — November 4, 2009 @ 1:43 am - November 4, 2009
“The Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia each ran 12 points behind Obama’s total in their respective states, quite a big swing if you ask me.”
What kind of ridiculous comparison is this? These are governors races, they are not poll quesitons about support for the president. Voters really do care about the specific personalities and policies that are at play in their states. Who their governor will be – thats a huge question. They dont waste that vote pretending its a poll question. Thats just you, and outsiders like you who only care about the national level ebb and flow of presidential approval.
Christie was way ahead many months ago. long before Obama lost 10 points on his approval. In fact, Christie has lost approval along with Obama, even more so. Its absurd to pretend that his win is a comment on Obama. The exit polls bear that out, in which the overwhelming majority of voters said that Obama was not a factor in their decision, and of the minority who did factor Obama in, it was roughly even split between supporters and opponetns.
Comment by Tano — November 4, 2009 @ 1:45 am - November 4, 2009
the point I was making is that Owens’s election won’t do anything to move the Democratic agenda in Congress — in response to Nick’s post.
Go look at the exit polls. Last I checked only 18% wanted to make health care a priority.
Christie’s win not a comment on Obama who practically moved to the state last week? No, those visits don’t count for anything, not one little thing.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 4, 2009 @ 1:56 am - November 4, 2009
The last time I checked the numbers Hoffman would have won if not for the Scozzafava votes received. Does anyone know if those votes were absentee ballots already cast before she left the race? Regardless, the important message in this particular election in my opinion was not to the Democrats, it was to the Washington Beltway Republicans. Their candidate was practically run out of town and I’m hoping they got the message loud and clear that we don’t want Republican “light”, we want conservatives with a message that offer a clear choice during elections. They continue to buy the bullshit that we need a “big tent” and that message is usually conveyed by people who don’t vote for the Republican regardless. Where’s the “big tent” for the Democrats? Why do Republicans and conservatives need one, but not the Democrats? If not for Palin, Republicans would have lost by twenty points in the last election.
Comment by Dave B — November 4, 2009 @ 2:16 am - November 4, 2009
These are governors races, they are not poll quesitons about support for the president.
Funny, that’s how Barack Obama phrased them.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 4, 2009 @ 2:17 am - November 4, 2009
And even Snufflupagus said it was a referendum on Chairman Obama. If I’m not mistaken, the CBS poll I mentioned in the other thread said that, if anything, Obama’s stumping in NJ hurt Corzine.
In what alternate universe do you reside, Tardo?
Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 4, 2009 @ 2:47 am - November 4, 2009
Oh stop your goddamn whining and playing victim and take responsibility for yourselves and your stupid decisions.
Unions? Whining about unions? New York is a strong union state!!! Why in the hell would you send an anti union candidate to hope to win in a strong union state? Who’s fault’s that? Unions? Or stupid people who hope an anti-union candidate can win in a strong union state? It’s naturally somebody else’s fault that people are this stupid! Did you graduate from the Sarah Bara-quitter’s school of professional whining and playing victim school?
Oh…it’s the mainstream media!!! WAAAAHHHHHHHH!!!!!!! Freakin’ GROW UP! It has nothing to do with the fact that he simply lost the election because a majority of people here in NY-23 didn’t like the guy. NOOOOOOOO….couldn’t possibly be that!!! It’s the MAINSTREAM MEDIA!!! Yes…that’s it! The people of NY-23 didn’t go out an vote today but instead, the NY Times and MSNBC went and voted. The people of NY-23 couldn’t possibly be intelligent enough to vote for themselves. Nope…the people of NY-23 are too stupid to vote for themselves and it must be the MAINSTREAM MEDIA’S FAULT!!! WAAAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!! I got news for ya…Hoffman didn’t win today because of stupidity like this! We don’t want this bulls##t representing us!
It certainly doesn’t help that part of Doug “Rock Star” Hoffman’s entourage labeled us and our issues “parochial”. We’re too stupid to be insulted by that considering none of you people are smart enough to be insulted by it so it must be A-OK! Well it wasn’t!
Opinion generators and their obedient acolytes such as yourselves labeled Scozzafava the “candidate of the Workers Family Party” and campaigned to cost her as many votes as possible. The truth was, Owens was the candidate of the Workers Family Party and you comfortably took a seat that was a sure Republican seat 4 weeks ago (and since the Civil War) and handed it over to the Workers Family Party candidate. Did ACORN pay you for this treasured gift or are you just that freakin’ stupid?
Stay out of NY-23!
Comment by Syntax — November 4, 2009 @ 3:48 am - November 4, 2009
I agree, Dave B. The problem is that we expect them to get the message. Many of them dont WANT to get the message. Many in the party leadership are liberals and RINOS themselves. People who WANT the Republican party to become more like the Democrats. We cannot wait for them to get that message, because they never will. They dont want to hear it. We have to get involved in our local parties and replace liberal Republicans with conservatives.
There is a mistaken belief that we have a two party system in America. We dont. Within the Republican party alone there are several groups all trying to control it. If we want conservative candidates, it means taking control from the Frumpys who want us to become Democrat-lite.
Comment by American Elephant — November 4, 2009 @ 5:07 am - November 4, 2009
No, Democrats pay ACORN, ACORN registers dead people and fills out ballots for them. Thats how that works.
Republicans dont have anything to do with ACORN, or Black Panthers, SEIU, gangs or any of the many other Democrat criminal enterprises.
Comment by American Elephant — November 4, 2009 @ 5:10 am - November 4, 2009
I agree with Syntax to a degree.New York is a union state with extreme liberal policies.It is one of maybe three states that is actually taxing success/wealth out of the state.
Owens was the perfect fit given the mentality for the people living there to sit back and take it or should I say give it, the Republicans caught a huge break in not having Ms. S sabotage the parties principles simply by having a (R) next to her name to wipe through the mud so the main stream media could continue to define a dyed in the wool liberal as a moderate.
I for one am thankful that Owens got the job being Hoffman did not.And it was an exciting,razor thin race in a place where a no name Republican should’t stand a prayer but things may be changing even for our NY brothers and sisters with the ultra radical changes that very few wanted that are being hatched by this administration.
Comment by Drider — November 4, 2009 @ 6:45 am - November 4, 2009
Hoffman lost because he wasn’t very good-looking. He’s a bit too Les Nessman-esque for politics.
Comment by Ashpenaz — November 4, 2009 @ 9:46 am - November 4, 2009
The question with Hoffman is did you want a “conservative” with Social-right Christianist agenda…or a real conservative who supports small government, small business and liberty? I find too-many use the label “conservative” when they actually support the Social-right agenda today….including on this site which I find puzzling since much of the Social-right works against the liberties of many here.
Being dismissive of the Northeastern GOP moderates just plays into the hands of those of the Social-right who support the small-tent and don’t care about winning elections withot waving the blood-stained shirt of anti-abortion and anti-gay Christianist politics.
Comment by Ted B. (Charging Rhino) — November 4, 2009 @ 10:28 am - November 4, 2009
Hoffman won ……. big time! He crawled out from under a log, took the independent route, got a little notice and soared like a bottle rocket. Republicans across the nation took notice and put their party leaders on notice because of (in part) little, meek Doug Hoffman.
I could care less about NY-23. If dairy subsidies (welfare) from the federal government were to be shut off and if Fort Drum were to be closed, NY-23 would be an unemployment, welfare dependent disaster area. A very slim majority of NY-23 voters opted for the welfare teat over the free market and personal responsibility.
The Democrats now have to up the pumping of federal juice in NY-23 to keep nerdy no-name people with principles running as independents from winning.
NY-23 welfare voters, Owens and the Democrats have just one year to make this election stick.
Anyone who calls Doug Hoffman a loser is whistling past the graveyard.
How’s that sky high taxing and emigration from the state working out for you New York?
Comment by heliotrope — November 4, 2009 @ 10:37 am - November 4, 2009
I’m sorry, Ted B, but who was the Northeastern GOP moderate you had in mind? The democrats and the media have been very careful to paint Scozzafava as a “moderate” so they can castigate the tiny minded pup tent conservative Republicans. Crap and Tax, Card Check and Obamacare are not “moderate” ideas and even a Charging RINO should understand that.
Comment by heliotrope — November 4, 2009 @ 10:44 am - November 4, 2009
Guys, stop making excuses. Perhaps Hoffman lost because he doesn’t represent the wishes of the people in the District as well as the other candidates. Perhaps it’s a moderate district, and the choice of Dede Schadenfruende, who was selected by officials familiar with the district, was a better fit than Hoffman, who was supported by a bunch of outsiders. maybe, gasp, Newt was correct after all.
Oh, and Heliotrope – Doug Hoffman is a loser!!!!
Comment by Sonicfrog — November 4, 2009 @ 10:47 am - November 4, 2009
I never defending Dede as a “moderate”. My point is that the GOP can’t just be the Social-right Christianists and their small-tent….which pointedly denies entry or acceptance to many of the readers here at GayPatriot. Whatever the political spectrum of a district or State’s political-population, the GOP must at-least try to appeal to the rightwards (conservative) 2/5ths or better to win elections…or just not bother. If only 20% of the electorate is “Republican” you need to appeal to the conservative-moderate independents. Not exclude then if they don’t meet some litmus-test.
Dede may have been too-liberal, and then the fault’s with the local GOP committee who sanctioned her candidacy. But to concede the GOP-slot in the voting machine to the Social-right Christianst agenda is one reason there are so few elected-Republicans in the Northeast. And the Social-right has as little interest in fiscal responsibility and small government as the liberals in the Democratic Party. Both want an all-powerful Nanny-state telling people what they can and can’t do in-public and in-private….while feed the pig-trough for their political friends.
Comment by ted B. — November 4, 2009 @ 1:12 pm - November 4, 2009
Just stopping by to say I told you so — and all I, a friendly liberal, had been saying is what ted B. said above.
And that this is just plain wrong: “And as to Nick’s point, I’ll just say that I think Congressman-elect Owens arrives neutered by the results in the Garden State and the margin in the Old Dominion.” How does that “neutering” work, exactly — do knives flash out from Trenton and Richmond all the way to the US Capitol? (I don’t mean to suggest, by negative implication, that anything else above was right.)
And, finally, as I understand it, Hoffman got involved in this all because he’s incredibly anti-gay, so you really ought to be pleased by his loss.
Comment by David in NY — November 4, 2009 @ 4:16 pm - November 4, 2009
“The media attempt to portray him as a right-wing extremist surely hurt him with libertarian voters in the district.”
Can’t let this little delight pass, either! He was a right-wing extremist as are the reality-devoid half of your commentators, and maybe, given your estimate of Hoffman, you yourself.
As I said a day or two ago, thanks for the additional seat in Congress.
Comment by David in NY — November 4, 2009 @ 4:21 pm - November 4, 2009
I’ve heard that notion that Hoffman got involved because he was anti-gay from a number of sources, but none of them had credible information to back up that contention.
As the neutered arrival of Owens, let me ask you if you even read my comments in context. The concluding sentence of the very paragraph you quote makes my point, “His victory, in short, does nothing to advance the Obama agenda.”
He’s neutered in the sense that his election doesn’t nothing to advance the Obama agenda.
Yes, I know I’m repeating my point which is sometimes necessary when communicating with liberals who seem determined to miss the points of conservative arguments.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 4, 2009 @ 4:21 pm - November 4, 2009
“He’s neutered in the sense that his election doesn’t nothing to advance the Obama agenda.”
Of course I read the context. The statement is pure BS. Owens election means one more vote for Obama than we would have had, and the results in NJ and VA don’t change that one little bit.
Look, cool down, take a week off and do a reality check. Your choice to back Hoffman may have been a feel-good thing, but it was really silly when considered in any serious light. And I think, as to the gay thing, given Hoffman’s closeness to Beck and Limbaugh, that the many reports of his anti-gay views are absolutely correct.
Comment by David in NY — November 4, 2009 @ 4:29 pm - November 4, 2009
“I hope Hoffman gets his act together and runs next year. This is only for a year and then they have another election.”
As I Democrat, I am in complete agreement with this statement.
Comment by David in NY — November 4, 2009 @ 4:33 pm - November 4, 2009
Of course you are, David, because you’re delusional.
We know that since you shriek that anyone who says that marriage is between a man and a woman based on their religious beliefs is an awful, evil homophobe.
Except when you’re worshiping the ones who say it as your Messiah.
“I believe that marriage is the union between a man and a woman. Now, for me as a Christian … it’s also a sacred union. You know, God’s in the mix.”
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 4, 2009 @ 4:47 pm - November 4, 2009
Look, Mr. or Ms. North Dallas (what’s your interest in NY-23 anyway?), aren’t you the person implying that anybody who didn’t vote for Doug Hoffman was a socialist or something like that, the other day? Well, by that standard, 55% of the North Country is socialist. I say, keep your divisive, hating ways out of our state. But I welcome another run from Hoffman, because that 55% will hold next time too — in fact he’ll do worse when people know more about him. That 55% is no delusion.
Comment by David in NY — November 4, 2009 @ 4:52 pm - November 4, 2009
Look, Mr. or Ms. North Dallas (what’s your interest in NY-23 anyway?), aren’t you the person implying that anybody who didn’t vote for Doug Hoffman was a socialist or something like that, the other day?
Nope.
But you did state that your showing up here has nothing to do with making any substantive points and is primarily about being a troll.
I was really just being a troll, to some degree.
Which is all that liberals are good for, and what Americans are figuring out — that liberals offer no solutions or intelligent thought, and are little more than hypocritical trolls.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 4, 2009 @ 5:50 pm - November 4, 2009
Oh,……wow….!!!! It turns out Doug Hoffman is not the messiah. Wow!!!!, just …… Wow!!!!
So, pray tell me, just how did the nerd incarnate come within millimeters of smashing both liberal Sozzafava and Owens?
I am not a part of the welfare teat sucking NY-23, but you might be surprised how many principled people still live in the district.
Comment by heliotrope — November 4, 2009 @ 7:43 pm - November 4, 2009