I know, I know. I should really be counting my blessings. And I hate to piss on our parade. A HUGE sweep in Virginia (expected) and an incredibly pleasant surprise up in New Jersey (I have to be honest, I wasn’t counting on that, but WOW!). All GOPers should be glad this morning as both major candidates of the party were successful in knocking the ruling power of these two states out and replacing them with Republicans.
On the other hand, I have to say…
Now, I’m a Republican–registered and active (as far as the Hatch Act allows me)–and as such, I’m bully for our side, as they say. But I’m first and foremost, beyond party affiliation, a small-government, low-tax, individual-liberty small-‘l’ libertarian. And from that perspective, something else happened last night:
In a solidly (for over a century, we’re constantly being told) Republican district, the clear fiscal conservative lost in (ostensibly) a two-man race against a leftist lawyer. While the constituencies of New Jersy and Virginia alone each dwarf that of NY-23, and together render it completely negligable, something larger happened last night that gives me great pause as to the direction of our great Nation.
It’s not simply a (yet another) Congressional rubber-stamp vote for the Stalinization of the American health care industry, massive tax increases, enormous government expansion and Pelosiesque class warfare that was garnered last night. It was, in a conservative district a repudiation of smaller government and lower taxes, fiscal responsibility and individual liberty. Clearly the only candidate in NY-23 last night running on shaping the US the way small-government, small-‘l’ libertarians desire lost. And not in Manhattan or Hollywood. Not in Hyde Park or Washington, DC. In rural, upstate New York.
The entire NY-23 episode was a healthy blood-letting for the GOP, yes. We have proven to all who question that ours is the party of fiscal restraint, personal responsibilty, individual freedom, and smaller Federal government. Ask Ms. Scuzzafava about that.
But a bigger question seems to remain, thanks to Congressman-elect Bill Owens: Can we turn these core American beliefs into an actual movement? This summer’s tea parties and rallies against big-government gave me hope about a new American sense of Independence. The repudiation of this newly-reborn sense of respect for our founding principles last night in (of all places) upstate New York gives me great concern about our Nation and its ability to embrace these precepts that are the very basis of our unique experiment in the first place.
The bottom-line is this: Over the past 9 months, we have heard every political pundit and web-spinner worth his salt interpreting poll results and the general mood of the Country as basically this:
While the president remains terribly popular on a personal level, Americans are en-masse revolting against his policies. They like Barack Obama; they just don’t like what he’s trying to do. His personal approval ratings are still quite high, but his policies are terribly unpopular.
Bla, bla bla.
Virginia and (to an even greater extent) New Jersey tell us that President Obama is wildly unpopular. Not able even to deliver the bluest-of-blue Garden State to an incumbent(!), and the gubernatorial vote swinging about 25% from his victory in last year’s presidential contest clearly shows that the president’s political wave has ebbed to say the least. On the other hand, a red district (historically, yes, I know it went to Obama last year) in rural New York just sent a guaranteed vote for Nancy Pelosi and every cockamaime big-government Leftist scheme to the House of Representatives. This turns every political analysis of the past spring, summer, and fall on its ear.
From where I’m standing, I’d have traded New Jersey and Virginia for NY-23. Am I crazy? Please say so.
-Nick (ColoradoPatriot, from HQ)
I disagree. It was a repudiation of third party candidates. The message of smaller government and lower taxes was sent loud and clear. The message from NY-23 is that in order to win, you have to run WITHIN the two party system.
Nick:
I think you’re being a little too pessimistic about this. The voters in NY-23 were faced with a choice between a Democrat who ran as a moderate, a liberal Republican who dropped out of the race and then turned on her own party, and an unknown (and very inarticulate) conservative who ran as a third party candidate. That race was a big mess, and probably indicative of very little nationally. I watched an interview with Hoffman earlier this evening on Fox and I have to say he was very unimpressive. I am not surprised that he lost. And don’t worry… we may get that seat back in 2010.
The race for New York’s 23rd District is not over, just postponed until 2010. The issues of this election have always centered on the economy – on the need for fiscal restraint, smaller government, and policies that encourage jobs. In 2010, these issues will be even more crucial to the electorate. I commend Doug Hoffman and all the other under-dog candidates who have the courage to put themselves out there and run against the odds.
this from Sarah Palin’s facebook message.
I think VA and NJ are much more important than NY23. I was shocked by the NJ win, much better than NY23.
I’d also say the other message from NY-23 is that liberal republicans like Dede Scuzzyfavors and her supporters are treacherous backstabbers who have no business leading this party.
I dont know the district, but it appears to me that Doug Hoffman will HAVE to immediately divorce himself from the Obama/Pelosi wing of the party and oppose much of their agenda if he hopes to stay in office.
I am disappointed that Hoffman did not win. However, what other factors are there in this race? What percentage of the votes were brought in by ACORN and SEIU workers?
It was a very tight race and that is to Hoffman’s credit. The lamestream media were playing games when they claim that Scuzzy is a moderate. No way is that woman a moderate!!!
First off the Scuzzbucket is a DIABLO. She is a turncoat. She could never be trusted.
I know little about Bill Owens. It is stated that he is a liberal, but for a Democrat, how liberal? If the person who left the seat was considered a “moderate” then we read RINO and that means that he was probably double dealing in the Congress anyway.
Perhaps the people are saying, well Owens will make sure that the pork for Fort Drum continues.
Either way the Scuzzbucket should be ousted from the Republican Party because she is a Democrat in sheep’s clothing.
I don’t think Owens is as pro-Stalinization as you think. Even Kos himself was endorsing Scozzafava, calling Owens another Blue Dog that hasn’t been pro-Obamacare.
No, Nick. You are way over-interpreting. NY 23 was a c-f. It is astounding, and an *endorsement* of fiscal conservatism, that Hoffman got as far as he did and Scuzzyfavor was reduced to endorsing her fellow (haha) Democrat.
Or as I just told Blatt (sorry to repeat myself but I want to make you feel better 😉 ): Hoffman lost for two simple reasons:
– Scuzzyfavor was a Democrat. She literally wanted the Democrat to win.
– Scuzzyfavor’s name was the (R) on the ticket.
Look at her votes tonight. It’s people who voted for her only because she was the designated Republican. (If they were truly fans of hers, and well tuned in, they would have followed her to Owens.) Now add her votes to Hoffman’s. The Republican *and* fiscal conservative votes won. It’s just that the whole thing was such a c-f, a brilliant spoiler setup from Rahm Emanuel that Newt Gingrich, like a dope, played into and made worse. Score one for Rahm.
Good news! Owens, a Blue Dog.
ILC is right, Nick. The more I think about it the more I realize that Hoffman’s race was a big win for conservatism. It sent a very resounding message to the Republican party that they cannot win without conservatives, and that if they plan to run any more Scuzzyfavors, then they can plan to be in the minority for a very long time.
Those are good messages for them to get going into 2010.
NIck,
You really need to get out of the spin game and try to think clearly and critically about this country and its politics.
Obama is NOT in any conceivable sense, wildly unpopular. Nor are his policies. You are just whispering sweet nothings into your own ear.
The race for the governorship of VA, and NJ are races for the governorship of those states. They are not poll questions asking if one supports the president. Hell, the Republicans lost the Virginia governorship in 2001, two months after 9/11, when Bush’s approvals were around 90%.
Christie was nearly 20% ahead of Corzine, and seen as the inevitable victor, back in early summer when Obama was up over 60% approval. Christie has not risen as Obama slips, Christie has lost MORE support over the past few months than Obama has.
Believe it or not, there really are issues at play in these states, and voters choose their governors based on who they want governing their states.
A House race also is often based on local issues – but since it is a DC job, dealing with national issues, there is a bit more justification there to seeing the result as at least partly a referendum on those in power in DC.
You just have been spinning yourself for a very long time, which is why you cant make sense of these results. I’ll put the obvious facts to you again. Obama’s approval ratings today are almost identical with his share of the vote last November. He remains very popular, and with the same support he always has had.
As Allah puts it:
They are not poll questions asking if one supports the president.
And again, Barack Obama thinks his black skin prevents him from having to deal with reality.
Barack Obama made these elections poll questions about support for him. He lost, and that is why he is sending out his puppets like Tano to spin for him and beclown themselves. He is a pathetic child who has no capability or intelligence other than to blame others and tell incredible lies.
I heard someone from the union call in on the radio and he was told if Hoffman won they would be dinged 500.00 dollars, crazy stuff.
SNORT! Do you actually read the polls? Rasmussen, CNN both agree that large majorities of Americans oppose Obama’s policies and disapprove of his handling of every major issue. From the economy, to health care, to foreign policy to immigration to taxes, to you name it! Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of everything, and trust Republicans more on everything, but they “personally approve” of Obama.
It translates into they think he is a nice man who is doing EVERYTHING wrong. If they paid closer attention, they would discover the nice part is an act covering up a deeply dishonest Marxist who loathes every principle America is founded upon.
I am frankly heartened by the results. If a less has to be taught to the Republicans lets do it in one Congressional district that could end up back in Republican hands with a proper primary.
Had there been a primary this year the race would have been completely different.
Dede ended up with close to 7000 votes. Owens only won by around 4000. The NY Republicans screwed the pooch on this one. They ran a Democrat.
Daivd
That is a lesson, not a, “less,” sorry.
Nick, I think this election is less about Obama than anything else. Because Obama may have said otherwise before the election doesn’t change that. Corzine was well behind in the polls back in the day when Obama was still popular, and Corzine gained in the polls while Obama favorable ratings were tanking.
Virginia may be a different story. As far as I know, Deeds was always well behind. Even so, despite Reagan having huge wins in 1980 and 1984, Democrats won in 1981 and 1985.
As for NY23, I don’t think that it’s necessarily bad news for conservatives. The problem was, at least as Steele try to put it, the process for selecting the Republican candidate was flawed. My guess is that if Hoffman was the Republican candidate, he would have won.
Democrats lost the governorships for one simple reason: blacks don’t vote unless the candidate is black.
And, over on Planet Ash, it’s back with the racism.
Please look at the black voter turnout in those states compared to when Obama was on the ballot.
And I’m bit teed-off about the Ungandan government’s decision to give gays the death penalty, so, maybe I’m a bit race-aware at the moment.
That’s a different argument. Now you’re just saying that the rate of black voting may have been lower in this election. That’s very likely true. Different from #21, where you had claimed of *all* blacks, sweepingly and without qualifiers:
As for this bit:
Fight the urge, Ash. Fight it. Race has nothing to do with it. Culture/philosophy does.
(Culture/philosophy, plus plain human evil, I mean.)
Ah, sweet Tano, you are so insightful:
Is that a universal truth worthy of all men to be received and valid in all elections in all states at all times?
I went to the polls in Virginia and we hammered the Democrats by historic proportions. Even the Democrat strongholds carried the Democrats by historically much smaller margins.
Guess the Old Dominion voters just have some loopy reason to be so certain they want a break from Democrats and the cutting edge of progress and green tea with a heavy dose of hopenchange.
I wonder how an advisory question on the ballot concerning Obamacare would have fared.
I know not what course the liberals may take, but as for me and my conservative buds give us 2010 as fast as possible.
Sorry your guys are waffling on Obamacare. The tension must be unbearable.
Surely you must be aware of the tension between the black community* and the gay community? You know, how blacks* hate it when gays try to include themselves in the civil rights movement which blacks* think is exclusively for them? How the whole continent of Africa*, which is now free of white apartheid, suddenly wants gays rounded up, imprisoned and killed? How gays are constantly insulted in urban black music? How black ministers* are on the forefront of condemning gays? Blacks* are only interested in equality when they are the victims. They* are only interested in voting as a bloc when they* are the candidate.
Why didn’t Magic Johnson say, “You know, it’s cool if you think I’m gay–but really, I’m straight.” Why did he get so mad that people thought he got AIDS through gay sex?
*hyperbole alert. This does not refer to each individual of African descent.
You know, how blacks* hate it when gays try to include themselves in the civil rights movement which blacks* think is exclusively for them?
Many White persons get huffy when gay people compare their rights struggles to the civil rights movement.
Why didn’t Magic Johnson say, “You know, it’s cool if you think I’m gay–but really, I’m straight.” Why did he get so mad that people thought he got AIDS through gay sex?
Yes, it would have been nice if Magic Johnson said that. Many White celebrities do the same. Actually, I find it humerous when a gay person says, “You know, I think it’s cool if you think I’m gay, but really, I’m straight.”
Ash, now you want to dress up your racism as “hyperbole”, rather than apologize for it, or stop doing it. So be it. Doesn’t change what it is.
Thinking that Ugandans, or any blacks, act wrongly toward gays on account of the Ugandans’ perceived *race*, is racism. Oh, yeah – It’s also stupid. (The two go hand in hand. Racist thinking is invariably stupid.)
Nick, I apologize for the sidetrack and having made my point, will shut up there now.
I don’t believe that “race is the primary determinant of human traits and capacities and that racial differences produce an inherent superiority of a particular race.” To accuse me of that is slander. What I’m saying is that many people like to form subcultures based on what they believe is a shared trait. Many blacks think that they have been victimized for no other reason than the color of their skin. They believe if their skin had been a different color, they would not have been subject to victimization.
I don’t think skin color has anything to do with anything. I think we need to get past skin color. I am against people forming subcultures based on the color of their skin or their sexual orientation or whatever. It upsets me when such arbitrary groups seem to vote as a bloc, as they did in this election.
To be clear for the record: I didn’t accuse you of believing it. I only accused you (and correctly) of -practicing- it, in comment #24 and certain other comments I’ve seen you make.
I do appreciate all the backpedaling that you are doing.
All you have to do is look at the faces of liberal Democrats to see the truth of yesterday. They are shell shocked and stunned. The dream is over. And so quick. Poof, gone.
THis administration is so incompetent, look for the next CARTER PHASE of Obamaism.
They don’t know how to solve problems.
Iran
Afghanistan
the economy
unemloyment
N Korea
now the mood of the people
Carter eventually got around to tell Americans….
it’s over, the days of American greatness is over, get used to it.
Some problems we can’t solve, so settle in for mediocrity.
Reagan proved Carter was wrong and America became great again.
Obama has got to go. And sweep all his leftists with him.
I’m not doing any backpedaling. But I am trying to use simpler words. 🙂
CNN last night and the local radio station this morning parroted the “NY-23 was Republican for over a century” meme. Too bad they failed to mention that 100 years ago NY-23 was located in Manhattan and gradually migrated up the Hudson Valley. It was not until the 1990s that it included any of the current counties. Hat tip to Wikipedia via Patterico.
Good thing they gradiated from skule with jernalism degrees.
Of course you’re backpedaling.
What I came to say: Jon Henke’s take on NY-23, RTWT:
http://thenextright.com/jon-henke/what-did-ny-23-mean
Also, with the “backpedaling” theme, Gingrich all but apologizes for his role in NY-23:
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/04/gingrich-on-ny-23-conservatives-have-every-right-to-be-angry-at-me/
“I think the entire Scozzafava candidacy was a mistake. I regret deeply that she was chosen by the local county chairs. It’s clear that in NY state, Republicans have to get in the habit of coordinating with… the Conservatives [Party]”, he says. Significant because it affirms the interpretation that conservatives were right, Scuzzyfavor and her ‘moderate’ supporters wrong.
Steele also agrees that NY-23 was a highly regrettable mess-up, blaming it on lack of a Republican primary:
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/04/steele-on-hoffmans-defeat-it-was-a-botched-process/
Perhaps learning a lesson, the NSRC pledges not to spend money in any contested Senate primaries for “open” seats:
http://hotair.com/archives/2009/11/04/lesson-learned-nrsc-pledges-to-stay-out-of-contested-primaries/