2009 Elections Show it’s not just House Democrats from McCain Districts who Face Consequences of Vote for PelosiCare
The conventional wisdom is that the 49 Democrats from congressional districts that backed John McCain last fall are those likely to tip the balance in the current debate on health care.
Given the results of last Tuesday’s elections, however, those Democrats for districts which delivered 45% of their votes (or more) to the Republican should also be concerned. And maybe even those from districts which delivered fewer than 57% of their votes to Barack Obama last fall.
In his analysis of those elections, Karl Rove observed, “The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania.”
Given the growing opposition to PelosiCare, a shift of eight points no longer seems out of the question (should the bill pass), indeed, it now seems increasingly likely in next fall’s elections. Many Democrats may find themselves in a bind though, knowing that if they vote, “No,” in the interests of appeasing their constituents, they may well incur the ire of the party’s left-wing base, drying up sources of financial support and campaign volunteers.
Even passage of the bill today does not mean Obama/Pelosicare becomes the law of the land. Remember that while the House may have passed the Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill by the narrowest of margins back in June, neither House seems any closer to passing a companion version in the Senate and reconciling the differences so they can send it to President Obama for his signature.
Should Mrs. Pelosi’s bill pass today, many of those Democrats who vote in favor–and not just the 49 from “McCain districts” are going to hear from their constituents. And I daresay what they hear may cause a few of them to change their votes the next time they have to vote on such legislation.
5 Comments
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
But the Democrats are governing like they don’t give a damn what any district thinks. So many of the things they are considering are hugely unpopular. The public agrees with the Republicans on the top ten issues.
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — November 7, 2009 @ 7:18 pm - November 7, 2009
Yes. How DARE the Blue Dogs stand by their own convictions, or even ask questions, rather than passively accepting their role as ‘beards’ run by the Far Left in conservative districts so that the Far Left could realize its dream of full socialism/fascism in America. How dare they!
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2009 @ 7:44 pm - November 7, 2009
“But the Democrats are governing like they don’t give a damn what any district thinks.”
Indeed. Some obscure Limey named Winston Churchill said this back in the 30′s:
“You had a choice between honor and war. You chose dishonor…and you shall have war.”
Comment by MarkJ — November 7, 2009 @ 9:00 pm - November 7, 2009
My guess is that they’ll pass it by promising six-figure jobs to the Congressmen who lose their office over this vote. Heck, nationalizing health care will provide plenty of those jobs to be handed out to ex-Congressmen. Since swing districts are tough to have long careers in, getting a govt. job for life is an easy alternative to help bribe the Blue Dogs.
Come to think of it, that’s how the California legislators got around term limits.
Comment by LenS — November 7, 2009 @ 9:42 pm - November 7, 2009
Dan, how did Rove explain the over 20 point Republican loss in Virginia in 1985, when a Democrat won the governor’s race despite Reagan winning decisively in 1984 in Virginia?
Comment by Pat — November 8, 2009 @ 11:24 am - November 8, 2009