Of all the Democratic Senators up for reelection next fall in states which normally vote Republican, I had assumed (and still contend) that Indiana’s Evan Bayh would have the easiest time winning reelection. To be sure, Indiana did narrowly go for Obama last fall, but the Democrat really invested in the state while McCain took it for granted until polls showed the “red” state to be a tossup.
Of the eighteen seats currently held by Democrats up next fall, only two are in states which McCain won (Arkansas and North Dakota). Of the remaining fifteen states (there are two Senate races in New York next fall), Indiana delivered the smallest margin of victory to the Democratic nominee. Given her vote this morning for cloture on the Reid-Baucus-Dodd-Harkin amendment, there’s not much Blanche Lincoln can do to save her Arkansas Senate seat. Should North Dakota Governor John Hoeven challenge his state’s junior Senator, that seat will flip as well. But, now even a lesser known opponent has a chance against Byron Dorgan, albeit probably not a strong one unless he can raise a pile of cash.
Which brings us back to Indiana. I’ve always liked Evan Bayh and not just because we went to the same law school (albeit at different times). He’s a decent fellow and does not engage in the partisan demagoguery of the leaders of his partisan caucus. As Democrats go, he’s pretty moderate, but still considerably to the left of center. And now in voting for cloture, he has signed on to a massive increase of government power. Hardly a moderate vote that.
In 2004, against a well-funded opponent in a state that George W. Bush won with 60% of the vote, Bayh ran ahead of the Republican presidential nominee, beating a well-funded GOP opponent by over half-a-million votes.
2004, however, was not a throw-the-bums out year. And it sure looks like 2010 is shaping up to be such a year. Could Indiana voters send its popular former Governor packing? Will he suffer the fate of his father in a similar such year? Right now, I wouldn’t bet on it. But, thirty years ago, this month no one would have bet on a 2-term Congressman to unseat the well-liked Democrat. One year later, on November 2, 1980, Dan Quayle easily ousted the elder Bayh.
TPM is reporting that the Democrats’ plan is to run against Bush in 2010. Because America just hated it when unemployment was 5% and the deficit was only $200 Billion.
Evan Bayh, I’m ashamed to say, is one of my senators. I tried to call last night before the vote, but his voicemail box “was full.” Yeah, right. I guess he was too busy off screwing the rest of the country.
Bayh’s involvement in this abortion of a bill is going to come back and haunt him like the Ghost of Christmas Past. Couldn’t happen to a “nicer guy,” huh?
Senator Bayh Humbug is gone from the Senate if there is anything I can do to make it happen. I was pretty happy with him as Governor, but despite “moderate” noices he makes in the Senate, he nearly always lines up with the radicals (meaning the national leadership) of the Democrat party at the expense of his less radical Indiana constituents. I mean, seriously, who thinks of Indiana when some says “radical?”
Starting today, the people of Indiana will be gearing up to remove the Senator. Tea Party Style..
The question is not whether he is vulnerable – the quesion is whether there is a viable candidate to challenge him. Hostettler lost a re-election bid last year, and is going up a candidate that already has almost 13 million dollars. So, can he raise money and pose a viable threat?
Also, the question will be how much the RNC wants to invest in Ohio. There is a real opportunity to pick up 4 seats in the Northeast, and the the RNC might want to make in-roads in states like Pennsylvania and Connecticut more than in Ohio – a state that is usually a pretty solid republican state.
Chris,
Bayh’s seat is in Indiana. I am sure the Republicans will be spending quite a bit of money in Ohio, defending Voinovich’s seat (Voinovich is retiring).
Your comment about Hostettler is more prescient. He never ran particularly strong in his Congressional district nor was a particularly strong fundraiser. This contrasts quite sharply with Dan Quayle, who was both.
Bottom line, I don’t think Hostettler has what it takes to win.
You Hoosiers would know this better than I. Isn’t Hostettler part of a larger field and there are others running for the GOP nomination?
Dave:
You are correct. I just noticed how many typo’s I had in my original post, and apologize for that. You are 100% correct that Republicans will try to keep Voinovich’s seat since to even have a chance at making significant in-road’s in the Senate, they will not be able to lose any of the seats they currently hold.
As for Hostettler, I think most people assumed that Bayh would cruise to victory, and the door has just been thrown open to take him out. However, I have to agree with your assessment about Hostettler’s chances. Without money, and solid support within the state, his chances do not seem to be that great unless Bayh continues to vote for the liberal agenda (like cap-and-trade and immigration reform).
So, the RNC would be better off trying to defend Voinovich’s seat and Bunning’s seat. And, we cannot forget that the Roy Blunt/Carnahan race will be pretty tough as well. So, replacing Bayh might have to be put on the back-burner.
I just hope that the RNC does not ignore the Northeast. They have a chance to keep Gregg’s seat, and pick-up seats in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, and even New York (assuming Giuliani runs against Gillinbrand). There are a lot of Republicans in this area, and as Governor-elect Christie showed, Republicans can make in-roads in this part of the country.
And Daniel, yes there are other candidates running. However, it seems like Hostettler is emerging as the favorite. Although, if polling shows that Bayh is vulnerable, I suspect that other candidates might jump into the race.
I am going to guess that the odds of Bayh losing are about the same as the odds that the GOP will pick up 80 seats in the House.
I live in Indiana and I would campaign–HARD–for a decent candidate who challenged Bayh.
He’s not that smart and he’s a pansy. AND I suspect he would like to run for president. GAWD!!
Always liked Bayh, until Obamacare. I think he’s vulnerable. Hoosiers are not happy. Pence would be a great challenger if they could get him to run.