Alerting us to a weather report showing snow across the interior north of the Bay State, our reporter embedded with the Sons and Daughters of Liberty speculates how that will impact the election on Tuesday:
This is not a big storm, and most of it is going to fall tomorrow, but Tuesday is supposed to be ugly as well, as the snow tapers off to rain, sleet, slush, etc. As a lifelong Boston-area resident, the pattern is interesting. VERY few storms blanket the state this way. Most hit East *or* West, North *or* South but not the whole 150-mile length of the state, top to bottom (see map). As one who believes that God was sending a message with the post-Copenhagen blizzard that hit DC when BHO and Al Gore were returning, I’m not willing to concede this storm is an accident either.
Be that as it may…
Reading the AP report, my mind begins to grind through turnout scenarios (http://apnews.myway.com/article/20100117/D9D9L4P01.html): “Turnout is notoriously low in special elections, and Democrats need their loyalists -particularly blue-collar and minority voters who might not be motivated – to show up at the polls. Judging by Obama’s track record in elections since taking office, however, the strength of his political muscle is in
The idea that blue-collar voters would help Martha is wishful thinking. I can see almost nothing about her that would appeal to them. (See previous posts about Catholics not working in hospitals, her overall look, etc.) Blue *blood* is not blue *collar*. Scott, by contrast, is from a “blue-collarish” community. The Schilling call confirms that image.
Who’s more motivated to get up early the morning after a holiday weekend, clear their driveway (or shovel out their car) and get to the polls? Those voting for the closer, and Brown is that. There’s always a lag in peoples’ impressions of what’s going on and I suspect the average Dem voter is just waking up to the fact that this isn’t a coronation. Coakley’s lack of
mailings (and less-than-convincing phone calls) don’t help.
I don’t think I’ve ever even *heard* of a leftist who owns a snow plow, whereas critical blue-collar indie voters practically define that seasonal profession.
I’m not sure how to call the suburban/ex-urban, SUV, soccer-mom set (most of whom, in my neighborhood, are pushing sixty and somewhat to the left of Che Guevara) but on the margin, across the state, I’d give that one to Brown also. The college student in the late-model rear-wheel-drive car with the broken defroster isn’t going to be venturing out. Traffic is always hellacious after any kind of storm and, on the margin, voting will be the thing to slip off the agenda when you’re stuck an extra 20 minutes.
Unless you’re highly motivated. Advantage Brown.
Snow is also going to depress the turnout of the elderly who aren’t paying into the system but want universal healthcare to pass so they can get more out of it. (Nice thought; too bad it’s a fantasy). Advantage Brown.
Then there’s the marginal voter of any age who looks outside, ponders putting on boots, getting wet, taking extra time to find a parking spot, etc. Advantage, Brown.
Bottom line: snow, plus holiday weekend, plus storm pattern, plus motivation tilts it in Brown’s direction. Enough? We shall see. Those inclined to pray should ask for as much snow and wet slop to come down as possible for as long as possible. The votes from blue-collar landscaper/plow guy and friends will be crucial.