Another One Bites the Dust
In 2008, Arkansas Congressman Marion Berry ran unopposed for his 7th term in the House of Representatives. This fall, he’s not running at all:
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.
Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.
John McCain won the district by 21-points. Last Friday, Vic Snyder from the state’s neighboring First Congressional District announced his retirement. Call it the Brown effect?
This leaves Mike Ross in the 4th Congressional District as the only Razorback Democrat running for reelection to the House.
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I just read the following theory from someone: that Obama will now turn even harder to the left, proposing programs that Republicans must and will shoot down; then as people’s economy agony continues, He will run successfully against a “do-nothing” Republican congress in 2010 and 2012. So the Brown victory will end up having worked in Obama’s favor.
I don’t buy it, but it’s an intriguing theory. The person I read it from is not a leftie. But I don’t buy it because the message of the Brown victory, and the polls, is that Americans are starting to come back to an anti-deficit viewpoint, or beginning to understand (and correctly) that government activism is the cause of, not the solution to, our economic crisis.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — January 25, 2010 @ 2:42 am - January 25, 2010
Mwa ha ha ha ha!
I hope more Dem drop out. The bigger the gains in November the better.
Comment by Andrew — January 25, 2010 @ 4:57 am - January 25, 2010
As much as I would like the GOP to win control of one or both houses of Congress, there’s definitely an upside for the GOP to fall short of gaining a majority in either house while still making huge gains. It’s probably easier for the GOP to have a great year in 2012 if Obama can’t rail against a GOP-controlled congress, but huge losses in 2010 and small majorities in 2011-2012 would make it very difficult for Congress to pass any hardcore liberal legislation. If they can’t do it with their current majorities, it’s hard to see them able to do it with tiny majorities, especially given how many spooked “conservative” Dem senators will be up for reelection in 2012. I don’t think voters care much about how large a party’s majority is; they mostly just care which party is in control of the House, Senate, and White House.
My own assumption is that the President will continue to push a hard left agenda. Unlike Clinton, I think he is a true believer in leftist politics. Also, I think he may very well see Clinton’s tack back to the middle not as a good political move but as a bad one—that the lesson of 1994 is not that that Congress shouldn’t have pushed HillaryCare but that their abandonment of HillaryCare is why they lost so badly in 1994. So, I think it’s full speed ahead with liberalism and blame-Bushism until November. Perhaps a disastrous November for Democrats will cause Obama to pivot to an earnestly centrist course for the second half of his term, but even then, I’m not so sure. I think he is a guy who can’t comprehend that his ability to fool people with a centrist mask has basically been lost over the last year and is getting weaker as time goes on. People are getting tired of his schtick. More than just about any other politician, he’s been able to get people to judge him for his words rather than his actions, but I think that’s come to an end. It’s a lot easier to impress people with your words when you aren’t in power.
At this point, I predict Republicans pick up at least 50 seats in the House and win control of it. I predict that they’ll pick up at least 7 seats in the Senate but that the Senate stays in the Democrats’ control.
Comment by chad — January 25, 2010 @ 7:45 am - January 25, 2010
For curiosity sake – can anyone name all 6 who are “retiring” and what states they are from?
Also curious – how many Dems in House, how many in Senate?
Comment by Mike — January 25, 2010 @ 7:46 am - January 25, 2010
If I were a Democrat incumbent in an uphill battle, I would look at my campaign war chest and weigh whether I would rather take the money and retire or blow it on a bruising battle for reelection.
If there is a good chance that I will be thrown off the gravy train, I think I will take the gravy I have and step off the train while it isn’t flying down the tracks.
Comment by heliotrope — January 25, 2010 @ 10:16 am - January 25, 2010
chad, I think roughly like you here. I’m not sure the GOP is ready (morally and otherwise) to regain power; they mostly still are the same people who blew it on fiscal responsibility in 2000-2008. And given that we are screwed economically the next few years anyway, it may be best in the long run to have a couple more years of Americans blaming the Democrats, and seeing up-close that Big Government is the problem not the answer. Finally, the Democrats have quite a bit of money and ‘fight’ left in them: as a practical matter, they will probably succeed in limiting GOP gains in 2010 to sub-majority, though I could *maybe* see the House flipping.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — January 25, 2010 @ 10:18 am - January 25, 2010
ILC,
Apparently, John Boehner was going to focus group the tea party people and try to get a handle on what they are trying to say.
I am not sure I want any type of Republican majority at this point. I prefer to have just enough representation to have a stalemate.
Ideally, the Republican incumbents would understand the tea party message and they would roll back the crazy spending and entitlement programs. But, that is impossible. The professional politician is a snake and he slides his way around and through the maze of politics lubricated by his own snake oil secretions.
I particularly fear the Republican senators who would likely concoct their own health care program larded with Democrat pork bellies and be hailed as bipartisan. We need to face up to medicare and prescription drug bankruptcy and deal with health insurance portability and true competition and cap the malpractice awards. We needed to accomplish that for the years the Republicans were in control.
Comment by heliotrope — January 25, 2010 @ 10:37 am - January 25, 2010
…until the next wave of the financial crisis hits: the currency/borrowing crisis where the U.S. cannot borrow any more, has its sovereign credit downgraded, and the government either cuts trillions from the budget pronto, or makes a final commitment to Argentina-style debt monetization and hyperinflation.
I don’t know when that will be. Could be as early as this year or as late as 2015. Until then, our job is to prevent new entitlements. And to convert our personal savings to tangible assets such as land (owned free and clear), precious metals, etc.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — January 25, 2010 @ 11:00 am - January 25, 2010
Agreed, entirely agreed.
Two guys were driving down to North Carolina and buying watermelons for 50 cents each and then selling them here in Virginia at two for a dollar. They had so much business they had to buy a bigger truck.
Then they went into the banking business and survived by loaning each other money.
That about sums up the average Americans view of our “complicated” “too big to fail” economy.
Comment by heliotrope — January 25, 2010 @ 11:44 am - January 25, 2010
And Beau Biden isn’t going to run for his dads’ seat in Delaware. I guess these dynasty seats are harder to come by these days.
Comment by Leah — January 25, 2010 @ 12:31 pm - January 25, 2010
Adding to that, Leah. Evan Bayh is down three points in Indiana to Mike Pence. Wowzers.
Comment by V the K — January 25, 2010 @ 12:49 pm - January 25, 2010
It’s also sweet that Marion Berry dropped out *after* Obama promised to campaign for him.
Comment by V the K — January 25, 2010 @ 2:24 pm - January 25, 2010
Leah I didn’t hear Bidens son wasn’t going to run. Is that true or just a hope?
There’s a great AP photo today that may well describe Obama and the liberal Democrats in one picture…..
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/slideshow/photo//100119/480/9131bc77c7534185bdbf267bb4ab8497/
needs the ole teleprompter to speak to 6th graders for a cpl minutes.
Imagine the prep time……
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — January 25, 2010 @ 4:15 pm - January 25, 2010
Independent Fox News reports that Rep Berry in meetings with Obama heard comments linking 2010 to 1994. Obama laughed and dismissed it saying….”in 1994, you didn’t have me…” Man what an ego.
And is Mr Obama keeping score like the rest of us? VA NJ MA CopenhagenI Copenhagen II. Mr Berry said he didn’t feel comforted. hehe
Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — January 25, 2010 @ 6:41 pm - January 25, 2010