The Berry Test:
Will GOP Voters Support Gay Republican Candidate
Solid on “Tea Party” Issues?
Will GOP Voters Support Gay Republican Candidate
Solid on “Tea Party” Issues?
The campaign of Matthew Berry released this morning an internal poll which showed that good man within striking distance of 10-term Democrat Jim Moran in one of the least Republican districts in Virginia. The “internal poll conducted by the Tarrance Group” find that “only 38% of likely voters believe . . . Moran deserves to be reelected in November while the plurality of likely voters, 40%, believe that it is time to give someone new a chance”:
The poll also reveals that Matthew Berry is the Republican candidate who can beat Jim Moran. When Matthew Berry’s background and experience are described to voters as well as Moran’s experience and record, the race is within the margin of error: 41% for Matthew Berry and 44% for incumbent Jim Moran, with a significant 16% remaining undecided.
I’ve known Matthew for about fourteen years. He is a solid conservative with strong libertarian inclinations. As I wrote in my endorsement:
He knows that with less federal regulation, industry can more readily prosper, leading to a better and cheaper products, a more efficient delivery of services and more rapid creation of jobs.
Not just that, he knows, as he has written on his campaign website, that the “current explosion of government spending and debt is not sustainable and imperils our nation’s future.” And he has been a strong voice against Obama/Reid/PelosiCare, opposing greater government control over health care. Instead, he has put forward a 5-point plan for health care reform, favoring policies which reduce government intervention in this growing sector of our economy and do not impose additional costs or mandates on the American people.
In short, he’s solid on “Tea Party” issues. He is thus easily distinguishable from Dede Scozzafava who supported the “stimulus” and backed card check. Some in the media claimed conservatives deserted Dede in droves because she was good on gay issues, supporting, for example, state recognition of same-sex marriage. They wanted to paint a picture of Republicans obsessed with social issues and disinterested in small government matters.
Back then, I speculated that most conservatives would have stuck with the Republican nominee in NY-23 despite her stand on gay marriage had she been solid on fiscal issues as well. Now, in Virginia’s Eighth Congressional Districts, conservatives have a chance to show that fiscal issues are their real concern by backing a candidate who comes from the Ronald Reagan wing of the party, but who happens to be gay.
Let us hope Northern Virginia conservatives look to Matthew’s positions on the issues central to our party’s rank and file. He’s a good man who is not a newcomer to the idea of small government. He has long known why they’re good for our country. Once in office, he won’t flinch. You can support this small-government Republican by joining me in contributing to his campaign.
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Dan, unless you know something I do not know, I can not imagine that Berry’s gay status would cost or earn any noticeable number of votes.
Obviously, he will not run on the “gay agenda” and he will probably suffer the most attacks from liberal gays for not being gay enough.
Even in the poverty pockets of Virginia where the dreaded fundamentalists drag their knuckles, I do not believe a candidate who is gay would suffer defeat if his issues and philosophy on limited government were true and honest.
Comment by heliotrope — February 1, 2010 @ 11:56 am - February 1, 2010
I don’t know the guy but it seems obvious to me that conservatives are much more interested in economic and foreign policy issues than social issues this year. So unless he chooses to run on the latter (which would be stupid for any conservative candidate this year) or his opponent shows all the tolerance of a typical Democrat and attempts to turn the race into a social issue contest, I think he’ll get plenty of conservative support.
Comment by TRO — February 1, 2010 @ 11:56 am - February 1, 2010
I want to clarify something. Even if his opponent tries to use his being gay against him – making a big deal of DADT and gay marriage in order to make it a soundbite issue – I don’t think conservatives will take the bait. Hell, he might even get more conservative votes over it.
Comment by TRO — February 1, 2010 @ 12:03 pm - February 1, 2010
I understand what you’re saying TRO. Though candidates like Michael Steele, Sarah Palin, Ken Blackwell, and then judges like Clarence Thomas show that the progressives will stoop to new lows to attack a ‘minority’ republican.
Comment by The_Livewire — February 1, 2010 @ 1:02 pm - February 1, 2010
Houston proved that a gay candidate could win….Annise Parker is a fiscal conservative although she ran as a Democrat.
Comment by JebnTex — February 1, 2010 @ 1:03 pm - February 1, 2010
I’d to some of the other thoughts that this is NORTHERN Virginia, a place that is demographically diverse from much of the rest of the state. I think NoVA voters won’t really care about his sexuality and will be voting on the issues. And I’d be surprised if anyone made his sexuality an issue there.
Comment by Neptune — February 1, 2010 @ 3:05 pm - February 1, 2010
If I lived in his district he’d have my vote….
Comment by Kay — February 1, 2010 @ 4:08 pm - February 1, 2010
As a resident of Virginia’s 8th, I will do all I can to help Mr. Berry win Moran’s seat in Congress. Moran is one of the most disgraceful and embarrassing men in Congress, and Mr. Berry is the best candidate to oppose him yet, running in what looks like the best year for Republicans since 1994.
Neptune is absolutely right, I have yet to meet anyone in this area, Republican or Democrat, with the smallest hint of intolerance of homosexuals. It might actually help him, since it would fly in the face of the Republican-as-intolerant-redneck stereotype.
Comment by Dav — February 1, 2010 @ 5:22 pm - February 1, 2010