The junior Senator from the great state of Indiana has attracted an A-list opponent. Former Senator Dan Coats is challenging Obamacare supporter Evan Bayh, putting an eighth Democratic Senate seat in play, with GOP chances in New York State (Gillibrand), Washington State and Wisconsin now dependent on whether the parties there can field strong candidates and in California, on the outcome of the contest for the GOP nomination.
Coats should have no trouble raising money and I expect the first head-to-head matchup will show him within striking distance or just ahead of the left-of-center incumbent.
Evan, maybe you shudda thunk twice before voting “Aye” on the “stimulus” and Obamacare.
Put this one in the tossup, leans GOP category.
Roll Call has Bayh sitting on $13 million dollars for this fall. That’s a lot of schmundo for an Indiana race.
Dan Riehl theorizes that this is why Pence opted out of the race and that sounds reasonable.
Best wishes,
-MFS
Yeah I was wondering how the Republicans were going to attack 10-12 sitting Liberal Senators. But keep in mind the Dems now have to have the cash to DEFEND 12 seats as well. CA NY ILL are expensive markets to defend.
I’d still rate the race as a slight Leans D — though before Coats entered the race I would have classified it as Likely D.
The cash advantage is the primary reason, at this juncture, for giving Bayh a slight edge. I suspect the next polls will have the race tied or perhaps Coats slightly ahead (the most recent poll I saw had Bayh barely ahead of former Congressman John Hoestettler).
Interestingly, this is Coats’ old seat. He was appointed in 1989 when Dan Quayle became Vice President and elected to a full term in 1992 after winning the remaining 2 years in 1990. Coats is a Quayle protoge (actually having served on Quayle’s Congressional staff before succeeding Quayle in both the House and the Senate).
Ironically, at the time he retired in 1998, Bayh, as Governor, was beating Coats in head-to-head matchups. Coats chose to retire rather than risk defeat. Gov. Bayh’s takeover of Coats’ Senate seat was as easy as Gov. Hoeven’s takeover in North Dakota will be later on this year.
I wish Sen. Coats well. Just don’t underestimate Evan Bayh. He’s not his father and he will not go down without a helluva fight.