No, Virginia, Obamacare won’t poll better if it passes
A few left-wing bloggers have recently come up with data which, they contend, backs up their talking point that were Obamacare to pass support for the big government behemoth, currently flat-lining, would start to increase. They’re all but giddy at some supposed polling date showing that support for Medicare climbed after it passed in 1965.
2008 Obama supporter Megan McArdle, however, easily shoots down their claims:
Now, Medicare popularity did improve after it passed. On the other hand, it wasn’t passed despite terrible polling, with a controversial process, by a political party that was tanking in popularity thanks to a grinding recession.
Via Instapundit. And of those reasons, I think the process stands out as the primary reason why support won’t increase. The more people learn about the back room deals, the more they’ll wonder at the means the Democrats used to get this passed. If this were such a good deal, why would they have to pay off so many members to win their support?
I’d add a few more reasons why support for Obamacare won’t increase should it pass:
- The public mood has shifted since 1965. People were less skeptical then of big government programs than they are today. They were more willing to experiment with increased federal intervention.
- There was no significant organized opposition to Medicare in 1965. No taxpayer advocacy groups. (Nor an alternative media.) The conservative movement was then only nascent, having recently suffered a humiliating defeat at the polls (Goldwater won only six states in 1964). Today, the conservative movement in resurgent, reinvigorated through the Tea Party movement.
- Even many supporters don’t even know what’s in the bill’s several-thousand pages. (I mean, heck, as I write this we still don’t have the details of the House amendments to the Senate bill. There are certain “elements” Byron York observes, ” mandate, penalties, tax — are absolutely critical to the Democrats’ health care scheme.” They too are part of the plan as well as myriad new federal panels which the bill empowers to intervene in individuals’ health care decisions. Remember, even Nancy Pelosi said the House needed to pass the bill so we could know what’s in it.
Should the House deem the Senate bill passed this week as it passes its amendments to said legislation, the debate and the legislating won’t be over. The Senate will still need to pass the House amendments to its bill. Don’t think they’re going to roll over and pass them exactly as they were negotiating in back rooms on the other side of Capitol Hill.
That is, the debate won’t be over. The debate will remain in the headlines. The questionable provisions will receive media attention.
The long and the short of it is that, unlike Medicare, where a national consensus had emerged in favor of the bill by the time it passed, this time, if anything, the opposite has happened–a consensus has emerged against the bill. Indeed, I’d expect the polling for this bill to worsen if it passes when people learn just how the Democrats rammed it through–and what exactly they packed into this lengthy legislation.
RELATED: ObamaCare: Lazy WaPo bloggers relay bogus Dem talking point
Tough Votes! (Or, Is There Any DNC Talking Point Too Absurd For Ezra Klein To Parrot Happily?)
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Another lefty canard is the idea that Obamacare is needed because it will somehow help the economy. It won’t.
- Being based on government coercion, it won’t improve medical efficiency and costs; it will worsen them.
- Likewise, it won’t improve Obama’s job-destroying deficits; it will worsen them.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 18, 2010 @ 2:54 am - March 18, 2010
As I recall, the Dems see the whole disaffection with Obamacare as the bleating of sheeple stirred up by harmonic vibrations sent out by Republicans. As soon as Obamacare is passed, the sheeple will go back to grazing and breeding and waiting patiently to be sheared. By November, they will have completely forgotten the whole event and will follow the acorns to the polls.
Of course, Dems have to think this way. They fervently believe in the idiocy of the sheeple and their profound obligation to herd them, dip them for ticks, strip their wool off (except for the wool covering their eyes), slaughter their lambs and protect them from themselves. That is the essence of Obamacare and state socialism. Without sheeple, there is only equality of opportunity. For Dems, sheeple should be forced into equality by those who rule above them at the platinum level of the equality club.
Comment by heliotrope — March 18, 2010 @ 9:35 am - March 18, 2010
Thanks for the prediction. We will all see soon enough.
Anyway – sorry for changing the subject, but I gotta point this out.
I live in the upper MidWest, in a state that borders Canada. The average high temperature for a March 18 around here is 42. The all time record is 62 – set last year. Today, it is going to be 66. I’m going to the beach! (ok, in my dreams). It is still winter, and it is 66 degrees in the upper Midwest!!!
Here is the interersting thing. For some strange reason, there is no flashing siren over at Drudge. Oddly, he only seems to notice the weather when it SNOWS in winter, not when it is like,,,summer in winter. Whats up with that?
Comment by Tano — March 18, 2010 @ 9:38 am - March 18, 2010
Tano, you’re the one who says that we should ignore weather for global warming.
Do we really need to smack you around with facts on it again?
Or why did you spam this thread when you run and hide every other time I’ve pointed out your failure of global data understanding?
Comment by The_Livewire — March 18, 2010 @ 9:50 am - March 18, 2010
Let me start with recent facts.
“The handling of Antarctic sea ice is, unfortunately, not an isolated incident in the IPCC reports, but is simply one of many examples in which portions of the peer-reviewed scientific literature were cast aside, or ignored, so that a particular point of view—the preconceived IPCC point of view—could be either maintained or forwarded.”
Or here.
Or here.
“Yes, the models were so good they missed the non-warming of the last 15 years — probably thanks to the Climategaters’ unassailable data. And like most alarmists who speak from the global warming script, Schneider looks only at opponents’ aggregate cash while linking it to their immoral stands against “science.” Meanwhile we are to believe his objective team of activists is untainted by the many more billions of dollars that flow to their research institutes and eco-minded nonprofits.”
Comment by The_Livewire — March 18, 2010 @ 10:02 am - March 18, 2010
Excellent analysis, Dan. I couldn’t agree more.
Comment by John — March 18, 2010 @ 10:29 am - March 18, 2010
Another lefty canard is the idea that we need Obamacare to keep our Strongman strong.
Well, maybe that one’s true… if you’re a lefty. If you’re a committed lefty, then by definition you believe in having a Dear Leader who will take away people’s freedom, and you would need/want him to exercise power (i.e., take away people’s freedom) just to prove he can. Power is only power if you exercise it.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 18, 2010 @ 11:00 am - March 18, 2010
“Tano, you’re the one who says that we should ignore weather for global warming.”
Ahh, Livewire – if you were to actually read carefully, you would see that nowhere in my comment do I attribute the summery weather we are having with anything about global climate change. I am merely engaging in a critique of right-wing media – specifically yall’s favorite weatherman Matt Drudge, who highlights the fact that it snows in winter – thus generating all manner of posts in rightwing blogs about how global warming is bull, but he ignores when there really is weather that is out of the ordinary.
Comment by Tano — March 18, 2010 @ 12:14 pm - March 18, 2010
riiiight. Also know as you can’t answer the original post because you’ve not received the talking points, so you change the subject. Shame on me for falling for it.
Comment by The_Livewire — March 18, 2010 @ 12:24 pm - March 18, 2010
Tano, that you’re changing the subject suggests you can’t argue my point–guess you don’t have talking points to counter an argument leveled against one of your primary talking points.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — March 18, 2010 @ 12:35 pm - March 18, 2010
Well…there’s still the hope that SCOTUS might find this legislative backdoor transom-toss to actually avoid a second Senate vote unconstitutional. Otherwise, we are descending into banana republic-territory.
Comment by Ted B. (Charging Rhino) — March 18, 2010 @ 12:44 pm - March 18, 2010
Time and time again it seems the MSM and others are either lying or they’re pretending as if the American people are not aware of what’s really happening on the Hill at the behest of the president. What is being bantered about by liberal sycophants and others as a distractive whining on procedure is in reality a low grade drone which if the democrats manage to circumvent procedure to pass their healthcare bill, will escalate in to an uproarious out cry for repeal. The moment this president affixes his signature to his obamanation of a bill, not only are there 35 state AGs prepared to file suit… but many individuals and organizations are prepared to do the same. All it takes is a solitary judge to agree to hear one case…… whereby triggering an action forcing the freezing of any and all forward movement of healthcare reform.
Regardless of what’s being reported, there are too, many governors and state legislators who are not in agreement with Washington and are voicing objection to the tenets of the bill. A large proportion of state officials see it as a pernicious attempt by the president to enable the federal government to take over a sixth of the economy and saddle the states with 15Million new unaffordable reasons to run from. As a result, several state houses and governors will push to enact legislation at home which deems it unnecessary for their constituents to adhere to any of the federal mandates.
The president and his crew anticipated a loss in the November election… however, what is coming down the pike is going to be far more reaching and monumental in it’s scope. The democrat’s loss in the fall will send a message loud and clear …. this president is forcing the hand of the American people to show him they’ve had enough of his fiscal recklessness.
Comment by Spartann — March 18, 2010 @ 12:53 pm - March 18, 2010
“Tano, that you’re changing the subject suggests you can’t argue my point–guess you don’t have talking points to counter an argument leveled against one of your primary talking points.”
Actually, I don’t see the place for me to argue with you here. You are making a prediction and telling us why you come down the way you do. What is there for me to say? I have already given you my predicition and my reasons. Now lets sit back and see what happens.
And anyway, I have no investment in the question of whether the Medicare fight 40 years ago is a good analogy to the fight today. Life is way too short for me to go back and study the history of that event sufficiently to come to a measured judgement of whether it is relevant. What would be the point of doing that?
Comment by Tano — March 18, 2010 @ 5:57 pm - March 18, 2010
Tano, thank you, finally for admitting why you come here. You’re not here to engage us as once you claimed, but to spit out left-wing talking points as if repeating these bromides three times in rapid succession will make them true.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — March 18, 2010 @ 5:58 pm - March 18, 2010
Oh c’mon Dan, you can do a lot better than that….
Comment by Tano — March 18, 2010 @ 6:34 pm - March 18, 2010
Oh c’mon Dan, you can do a lot better than that….
No need. He called you out quite nicely and demonstrated that you have nothing to offer other than tired left-wing talking points. No intelligence and no ability to contribute to a conversation. No need to deal with you, then, parasite.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — March 18, 2010 @ 7:01 pm - March 18, 2010
I really like it when you guys just ignore tano. I bet if everyone did that he would eventually just go away. Why not give it a try?
Comment by Margo — March 18, 2010 @ 7:27 pm - March 18, 2010
Good point, Margo. He’s been particularly annoying lately.
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — March 18, 2010 @ 7:38 pm - March 18, 2010
Well with the new job
creationkilling package, Tano’s figuring the checks will be coming in again to post his drivel.I just enjoy using his own words against him.
Comment by The_Livewire — March 19, 2010 @ 12:16 pm - March 19, 2010