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If Obamacare passes, how big a GOP wave this fall?

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 5:04 pm - March 21, 2010.
Filed under: 111th Congress, 2010 Elections, Obamacare

If, indeed, a “historic win” on health care is close as blares the headline on Politico, then the key question is not whether or not the Republicans will win back the House, but how close their margin will be to the 67th Congress, elected in 1920 in the wake of popular discontent over the Administration of Woodrow Wilson.

Then, there were 302 Republicans in the House, compared to 131 Democrats.  Now, I don’t think we’ll elect that many Republicans this fall, though, in the coming days, we’ll see some Democrats who voted “Yes” get opposition from irate physicians or others opposed to this legislation.  More races which looked safe to the Democrats, like Barbara Boxer’s race to stay in the Senate, will move from “Lean” or “Likely” Democratic into the “Tossup” category.

And many Democrats who voted “No” may get swept away in the anti-incumbent Democratic tide.

UPDATE:  Glenn Reynolds:  ”Like the protester said yesterday, if you vote yes on the bill, we’ll vote no on you in November.“

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7 Comments

  1. A supermajority in the House would be great. There is no way though for a supermajority in the Senate, even if Republicans miraculously win every Senate race, so there would be no way to override Obama. But a healthy Republican majority in the House, regardless of whether Republicans win control of the Senate or even pick up seats at all, will effectively derail the Obama agenda in the second half of his term. There will be a lot of deadlock in 2011 and 2012. In 2012, Democrats will have to defend a lot more senate seats than they do this year, and of course the White House will be up for grabs then as well. If opposition to this healthcare bill (assuming it gets passed) remains as high as I’m expecting it to be, Republicans will control the House, Senate, and White House in 2012 and be in position to reverse the healthcare bill.

    Comment by chad — March 21, 2010 @ 6:26 pm - March 21, 2010

  2. I fear it will be less of a wave than before. The Welfare Party now has a reason to vote. Had the fascist takeover of health care not succeeded, they would have little motivation to vote, but now they have by both hook and crook succeeded in passing the EVIL that America has fought against for generations — Dependence Day as Mark Steyn perfectly named it — they turned a majority of Americans into wards of the state. And as that system fails, as the laws of economics prove it must, that dependent majority will drag the free minority who remain into their sinking ship and Obamacare will quickly turn into single payer socialized medicine — as was the goal all along.

    And now that those evil welfare queens have paid for their own health care by stealing your money and your childrens money, they will fight very hard to keep it. That was the whole reason Democrats were willing to do anything to pass this bill.

    The “bright” side is that the economy will now get worse (no, I dont think that the economy getting worse is a good thing, I think its horrible and f*ck every one of you liberals for it), and the “benefits” will not kick in for years while the economy killing, job-slaughtering regulations and taxation start immediately. So any motivation for people to support Democrats this fall will only be theoretical.

    Ugh, this really is an evil day.

    But we will either repeal this the country will split over it. Free people are not willing to be slaves of the state.

    Comment by American Elephant — March 21, 2010 @ 6:36 pm - March 21, 2010

  3. Here’s a less desperate and more reasonable prediction. Sorry:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7jRjkVc5tc&feature=player_embedded

    Comment by william — March 21, 2010 @ 7:33 pm - March 21, 2010

  4. Not sure how much it helps you to quote David Frum, a man eager to bash the side to which he supposedly pledges fealty in order to earn a few accolades from the MSM.

    Better, william, to look at Democratic pollster Dough Schoen who sees disaster for the Democrats.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — March 21, 2010 @ 7:39 pm - March 21, 2010

  5. Before this abomination, I thought maybe 50 seats. That was because the anger and frustration was just beginning to build. Now that this so-called health care “reform” scam is about to pass, 60 seats are not anywhere out of the question. The Democrats are fooling themselves into thinking that this vote will gin up their base. As we have come to find out, elections are not won on just the base alone. Otherwise, the Dear Leader, President Obama, would never have won the election. They need the independents. Many who are actually conservatives fed up with weasel Republicans. Kind of like David Frum. I pointed out that there was a candidate in the 1994 congressional election that won one of the most Democrat districts in the United States. His name was Republican Michael Flanigan. He only beat Dan Rostenkowski, one of the biggest crooks then in congress. So, 60 is realistic. BTW, the Dear Leader really has no coat tails. Ask the governor of New Jersey. Or Virginia. Or the junior senator from Massachusetts.

    Comment by Mark J. Goluskin — March 21, 2010 @ 7:54 pm - March 21, 2010

  6. dream on

    Comment by william — March 21, 2010 @ 8:29 pm - March 21, 2010

  7. I live in Hawaii (Yeah!) and I’m guessing your hoped for GOP wave will be very similar to recent tsunami that threatened our beautiful state: lots of hype, anticipation, but in the end very anticlimactic – and it just didn’t happen! LOL!!!!

    Comment by OrchidIslander — March 21, 2010 @ 9:14 pm - March 21, 2010

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