The latest poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) confirms surveys by Rasmussen and the Field Poll: in a state which went overwhelmingly (61%) for Obama in 2008, the state’s junior Senator, Barbara Boxer, polls well below 50%. I expect that political prognosticators will soon move this race from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss-up.”
Against each of the three Republicans competing to replace her, Boxer never polls higher than 46%–and that against Chuck Devore. Otherwise she remains deadlocked with Tom Campbell and my gal Carly Fiorina, polling below 45%. And she has edged ahead of Campbell in the race for the GOP nomination:
Today, Campbell and Fiorina are in a close race (24% Fiorina, 23% Campbell), and DeVore’s level of support is unchanged (8%). In this campaign—which has seen little advertising—the largest percentage of likely voters (44%) is undecided, similar to January (48%).
Interestingly in matchups with Fiorina and Campbell, Boxer, like Democrats across the country, trails among independents.
In the race for Governor, Meg “Whitman leads Democratic candidate Jerry Brown, 44 percent to 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided.”
And it’s not just Democrats Boxer and Moonbeam Brown who are lagging. People out here don’t much care for the Democratic-controlled state legislature: “For the first time in PPIC survey history, the state legislature’s approval rating among likely voters has sunk to single digits—9 percent.” That makes Congress seem popular. In the home state of the Democratic House Speaker, “Congress gets an approval rating of 14 percent—a 15-point drop since January (29%)”. Obama now enjoys a 52% approval rating, down 9 points from his November 2008 tally.
If undecideds in California break as they usually do, against the party in power, then, well, it’s going to be a banner year in the Golden State, with voters removing one of the most hyperpartisan and least accomplished Democrats from the Senate.
And now that the House reconciliation bill is going back to that chamber for a revote, I’ll bet Mrs. Boxer is gnashing her teeth, wishing she hadn’t voted to table an amendment preventing sex offenders from getting access to Viagra.