This ASSociated Press story is mindboggling. Not only because of the content, but because the AP writer was allowed to write it and it was published. I guess sometimes the Kremlin does allow the truth to leak out. I have to wonder why…
Anyway, if you think the economy is good because of Wall Street…. think again, mate.
The U-3 unemployment figure of 9.7% is a palatable gauge of unemployment designed to make Wall Street happy, or so you would think. Looking at the U-3 numbers it becomes obvious that the real bull market is not in equities, but in unemployment (see chart below).
However, the real unemployment rate, even by the standards of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is much higher. The U-6 unemployment number, as the real data is called, is at 17.5%, within 0.5% of its all-time high. This figure includes discouraged workers who’ve stopped looking, marginally attached workers, and workers that are forced to work part-time because full-time jobs are not available.
The post 2007 recession has eliminated 8.4 million jobs and rendered 15.7 million American’s jobless.
The mere fact that the palatable version of the unemployment rate has remained at 9.7% for three straight months, has Wall Street cheering.
Before chiming in, consider what it will take to simply get back to a normal unemployment rate of 5%. This is mindboggling.
The current labor force of 154 million will increase by about 1.8 million over each of the next five years because of ‘newbies’ entering the job market. By 2014, the labor force will be around 163 million. A 5% U-3 (not U-6) unemployment rate would equate to 8.15 million workers without a job.
7.55 million jobs will have to be created to reduce the number of job-less workers from today’s 15.7 million to 8.15 million. To accomplish this, there would have to be 125,833 jobs created each and every month over the next five years with no jobs lost.
The average monthly job growth over the past 10 years has been about 50,000. The average monthly job growth over the past 20 years has been about 90,000. Keep in mind that the 1990 – 2010 timeframe hosted the biggest bull market and economic expansion in history.
It is worth repeating: 7.55 million jobs will have to be created to reduce the number of job-less workers from today’s 15.7 million to 8.15 million. To accomplish this, there would have to be 125,833 jobs created each and every month over the next five years with no jobs lost.
Reagan would have cut taxes and eased regulations on small and medium-sized businesses — the mainstay of American middle class jobs. What does Obama do to the middle class? Borrows against our future, taxes us into oblivion with hidden healthcare taxes and higher premiums and increases the power of the EPA to regulate every part of an individual and business’ comings and goings.
Barry — that ain’t gonna spur 126,000 jobs a month, I assure you. Folks we are in some serious shit. And it sure the hell isn’t Bush’s fault.