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Catastropic US Jobs Picture
Or… ObamaDude, Where’s My Job?

This ASSociated Press story is mindboggling.  Not only because of the content, but because the AP writer was allowed to write it and it was published.  I guess sometimes the Kremlin does allow the truth to leak out.  I have to wonder why…

Anyway, if you think the economy is good because of Wall Street…. think again, mate.

The U-3 unemployment figure of 9.7% is a palatable gauge of unemployment designed to make Wall Street happy, or so you would think. Looking at the U-3 numbers it becomes obvious that the real bull market is not in equities, but in unemployment (see chart below).

However, the real unemployment rate, even by the standards of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is much higher. The U-6 unemployment number, as the real data is called, is at 17.5%, within 0.5% of its all-time high. This figure includes discouraged workers who’ve stopped looking, marginally attached workers, and workers that are forced to work part-time because full-time jobs are not available.

The post 2007 recession has eliminated 8.4 million jobs and rendered 15.7 million American’s jobless.

The mere fact that the palatable version of the unemployment rate has remained at 9.7% for three straight months, has Wall Street cheering.

Before chiming in, consider what it will take to simply get back to a normal unemployment rate of 5%. This is mindboggling.

The current labor force of 154 million will increase by about 1.8 million over each of the next five years because of ‘newbies’ entering the job market. By 2014, the labor force will be around 163 million. A 5% U-3 (not U-6) unemployment rate would equate to 8.15 million workers without a job.

7.55 million jobs will have to be created to reduce the number of job-less workers from today’s 15.7 million to 8.15 million. To accomplish this, there would have to be 125,833 jobs created each and every month over the next five years with no jobs lost. 

The average monthly job growth over the past 10 years has been about 50,000. The average monthly job growth over the past 20 years has been about 90,000. Keep in mind that the 1990 – 2010 timeframe hosted the biggest bull market and economic expansion in history.

It is worth repeating:  7.55 million jobs will have to be created to reduce the number of job-less workers from today’s 15.7 million to 8.15 million. To accomplish this, there would have to be 125,833 jobs created each and every month over the next five years with no jobs lost.

Reagan would have cut taxes and eased regulations on small and medium-sized businesses — the mainstay of American middle class jobs.  What does Obama do to the middle class?  Borrows against our future, taxes us into oblivion with hidden healthcare taxes and higher premiums and increases the power of the EPA to regulate every part of an individual and business’ comings and goings. 

Barry — that ain’t gonna spur 126,000 jobs a month, I assure you.  Folks we are in some serious shit.  And it sure the hell isn’t Bush’s fault.

-Bruce (GayPatriot)

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7 Comments

  1. [dumbstruck] Wow…Oh, my…wow… I mean, I knew it… but…wow… we are in some serious trouble…

    We are redoing everything that was done after the crash of ’29. I’m not surprised but still… I can’t believe I’m seeing it in black and white.

    Comment by Felix — April 7, 2010 @ 10:14 pm - April 7, 2010

  2. No, it wasn’t Bush’s fault by any means. People love to forget, and of course Democrats encourage them to, that the 2008 budget is actually Obama’s budget, not Bush’s because Democrats were so confident they were going to win, they held it over so that Bush couldn’t veto it. That budget, as well as Democrats promises to end the Bush tax cuts and promises to enact massive new taxes and regulation were what caused the recession, and the recession more than anything caused the housing bubble burst and the subsequent financial meltdown. (Which wouldnt happened even in spite of the recession if it werent for Democrats socialist housing policies and their corrupt cronies at Fannie and Freddie).

    You can say Bush spent too much — he did — but he is not responsible for the economy killing policies that caused the recession or the reckless socialist policies that caused the housing and financial crises. Those belong solely to the Democrats.

    Comment by American Elephant — April 7, 2010 @ 10:59 pm - April 7, 2010

  3. One way to improve the situation would be to reconsider our immigration policy. Perhaps a moratorium? Perhaps we could narrow our selection criteria to foreign workers with truly unique skills?

    We add 125,000 workers a month via green cards and temporary work visas. 900,000 temporary visas were added last year and they’re still being issues. There are 1.1 million permanent foreign workers right now.

    It’s estimated that illegal immigrants hold 8 million jobs.

    Given all that, our betters on both sides of the aisle are hot for amnesty.

    Comment by SoCalRobert — April 7, 2010 @ 11:59 pm - April 7, 2010

  4. That is an excellent point SoCalRobert. I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of a fellow named Frosty Woolridge or not, but he is critical of all immigration, not just illegal immigration–on the grounds that if it continues at the pace it has been going, our country is headed for catastrophe. You can find his argument outlined in this article among other places. At the moment I’m most concerned by the expansion of the government by the Obama administration, but I’ve been worried since Obama was elected about the coming power play whereby the Democrats try to sign up a bunch of new voters by giving amnesty and then citizen to the illegal immigrants already here.

    Comment by Kurt — April 8, 2010 @ 12:45 am - April 8, 2010

  5. Aaarrrggghhh… I meant to write “citizenship,” but I just wrote “citizen” instead. Oh well…

    Comment by Kurt — April 8, 2010 @ 12:46 am - April 8, 2010

  6. What’s amazing is that people touting the Porkulus don’t understand that the money goes based on party affiliation, not thigns like unemployment.

    If you can determine this from the data on Recovery.gov imagine what the real data looks like.

    Comment by The_Livewire — April 8, 2010 @ 8:29 am - April 8, 2010

  7. Great point on immigration, though I will say on a very small scale, the private sector (at least in IT) is doing it’s own work in that area. I’ve had two friends from upper-level IT R&D work at two of the biggest, respected hardware and software companies, lose their visa status after 11 and 15 years’ employment respectively. In both cases, their HR contacts told them, given the present economic state, their companies could hire two or three new employees on salary, to fill each of their positions and still save money. So, the companies are releasing them and they’re packing for home; Hong Kong and Australia.
    We also have friends abroad in varied disciplines and fields, who have college-level educations and top-notch skill and experience levels, but who are denied entry or are given the mother-of-all runarounds.
    Inappropriate levels of scrutiny and discretion exercised on them while this goes on:

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cf9_1270688367

    Sorry for the ‘kinda related’ rant, but the immigration comment hits closer to ‘extended-family’ home for me.

    Comment by rodney — April 8, 2010 @ 9:51 am - April 8, 2010

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